Forums > Off-Topic Discussion > Apple to Reach $900? In six months.

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Stephen Dawson

Posts: 29248

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

A guy by the name of Peter Misek at a company called Jeffries has called this.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/08 … et-to-900/

He says all of Apple's new releases in the fall look good.

I do not play this sector.

But if you like the iProduct line, you may want to buy a few shares.

Aug 17 12 11:25 am Link

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Jerry Nemeth

Posts: 28014

Dearborn, Michigan, US

It looks like you are trying to push Apple stock up to that price with this thread.   lol

Aug 17 12 11:29 am Link

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Stephen Dawson

Posts: 29248

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Jerry Nemeth wrote:
It looks like you are trying to push Apple stock up to that price with this thread.   lol

I do not play the tech sector as I stated in my OP.

But there are so may Apple fans here, I thought I would pass on what I saw on TV.

Aug 17 12 11:39 am Link

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STL-After-Dark

Posts: 4383

Saint Louis, Missouri, US

Apple has got to have reached or will soon reach its pinnacle, no company grows forever. I like Apple products quite a bit but would only invest at this point, on a short term basis. Maybe there will be small gains this fall, I plan on buying the iPhone 5 but I don't see any technology that's going to change the world coming down the pike.

Aug 17 12 11:48 am Link

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Looknsee Photography

Posts: 21691

Portland, Oregon, US

Apple stock hits new high after 4-month dip

The short term outline (IMHO) for Apple looks good:
...  In general, we are slowly coming out of the recession,
...  The holiday shopping season is on the horizon,
...  Apple is coming out with new products (new iPhone, maybe a smaller iPad) soon.
...  Apple is already the world's most valuable company.

I've been watching tech stocks for a couple of decades.  Years & years ago, I had Apple on a death watch (before Jobs rejoined Apple).  I would hate working for Jobs (I thought he was a self-centered egomaniac), but I got to hand it to him -- he turned that company around & then some.

Apple stock hitting 900 -- I think that's optimistic, but I can see 750 or 800 by the end of the year.

I have a good chunk of Apple stock (with a cost basis of $175, thank you very much) -- part of me thinks I should offload some of that stock & take my profit early next year, because it is difficult for the truly big companies to sustain their growth, no matter how good their products are.

But that's my opinion.

Aug 17 12 11:48 am Link

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What Fun Productions

Posts: 20192

Phoenix, Arizona, US

Looknsee Photography wrote:
Apple stock hits new high after 4-month dip

The short term outline (IMHO) for Apple looks good:
...  In general, we are slowly coming out of the recession,
...  The holiday shopping season is on the horizon,
...  Apple is coming out with new products (new iPhone, maybe a smaller iPad) soon.
...  Apple is already the world's most valuable company.

I've been watching tech stocks for a couple of decades.  Years & years ago, I had Apple on a death watch (before Jobs rejoined Apple).

Also, Apple paid a new quarterly dividend this week. This will attract investors and funds that like the dividend play.

Aug 17 12 11:51 am Link

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Wye

Posts: 9900

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Looknsee Photography wrote:
Apple stock hits new high after 4-month dip

The short term outline (IMHO) for Apple looks good:
...  In general, we are slowly coming out of the recession,
...  The holiday shopping season is on the horizon,
...  Apple is coming out with new products (new iPhone, maybe a smaller iPad) soon.
...  Apple is already the world's most valuable company.

I've been watching tech stocks for a couple of decades.  Years & years ago, I had Apple on a death watch (before Jobs rejoined Apple).  I would hate working for Jobs (I thought he was a self-centered egomaniac), but I got to hand it to him -- he turned that company around & then some.

Apple stock hitting 900 -- I think that's optimistic, but I can see 750 or 800 by the end of the year.

I have a good chunk of Apple stock (with a cost basis of $175, thank you very much) -- part of me thinks I should offload some of that stock & take my profit early next year, because it is difficult for the truly big companies to sustain their growth, no matter how good their products are.

But that's my opinion.

I too have a chunk of their stock.  My guess is that they will split before they get to $1000.

Aug 17 12 11:58 am Link

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R A V E N D R I V E

Posts: 15867

New York, New York, US

a) China isn't really in a recession

b) US still has recessionary spending habits but Apple's products are wildly popular

c) Apple goes through the moon if europe improves

Aug 17 12 12:47 pm Link

Photographer

Instinct Images

Posts: 22653

San Diego, California, US

I have a hard time believing that Apple will be the world's first $1 trillion company.

Aug 17 12 12:55 pm Link

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Jerry Nemeth

Posts: 28014

Dearborn, Michigan, US

Stephen Dawson wrote:

I do not play the tech sector as I stated in my OP.

But there are so may Apple fans here, I thought I would pass on what I saw on TV.

It has been my observation that Apple fans are totally devoted to Apple and will say or do anything to support Apple.

Aug 17 12 01:50 pm Link

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DOUGLASFOTOS

Posts: 8464

Los Angeles, California, US

Wye wrote:

I too have a chunk of their stock.  My guess is that they will split before they get to $1000.

This....They have been predicting 1000 dollars a share for quite some time. IT will happen. Just think if you had 10,000 shares when it was 10 dollars a share..BAM you wouldn't be here asking questions..like...what should I eat tonite!!  lol

Aug 17 12 01:56 pm Link

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Lightcraft Studio

Posts: 12254

Delray Beach, Florida, US

I haven't owned Apple stock since it was a penny stock. Sold it to buy an IBM PC back in the day.

Aug 17 12 01:56 pm Link

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Wye

Posts: 9900

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Lightcraft Studio wrote:
I haven't owned Apple stock since it was a penny stock. Sold it to buy an IBM PC back in the day.

There's a website that shows what would have happened if you had bought Apple stock instead of Apple products over the years.  It's a fun exercise.

Found it:

http://kyleconroy.com/2010/04/apple-stock

Seems like the the late 90s was the sweet spot for return on investment.

Aug 17 12 02:04 pm Link

Photographer

Looknsee Photography

Posts: 21691

Portland, Oregon, US

R A V E N D R I V E wrote:
a) China isn't really in a recession

b) US still has recessionary spending habits but Apple's products are wildly popular

c) Apple goes through the moon if europe improves

But, on the other hand, there are risks...

...  The "new" versions might not be sufficiently distinguishable from the current
     (and therefore cheaper) versions.

...  The competition is catching up.

...  The current products are not as revolutionary as they were when they hit the
     market.

...  And like I said, there is a limit to how big a big company can grow.  It eventually
     becomes exceedingly difficult for big companies to maintain their growth.

I'm cautiously optimistic -- it'll grow, but its growth will slow down soon.

Aug 17 12 02:08 pm Link

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Looknsee Photography

Posts: 21691

Portland, Oregon, US

Lightcraft Studio wrote:
I haven't owned Apple stock since it was a penny stock. Sold it to buy an IBM PC back in the day.

<  Simpson's Nelson voice >  Ha, ha!

Aug 17 12 02:09 pm Link

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R A V E N D R I V E

Posts: 15867

New York, New York, US

Looknsee Photography wrote:

But, on the other hand, there are risks...

...  The "new" versions might not be sufficiently distinguishable from the current
     (and therefore cheaper) versions.

...  The competition is catching up.

...  The current products are not as revolutionary as they were when they hit the
     market.

...  And like I said, there is a limit to how big a big company can grow.  It eventually
     becomes exceedingly difficult for big companies to maintain their growth.

I'm cautiously optimistic -- it'll grow, but its growth will slow down soon.

Apple trades at an average of 5x their cash pile. this will continue to grow with current spending habits and grow faster with any slight improvement in consumer habits (ie. europe)

the dividends and the buybacks will help the share equity remain in a growth phase for multiple quarters, but these are all signs of preparing for slowing growth in a way that will please wall street

Aug 17 12 02:23 pm Link

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Stephen Dawson

Posts: 29248

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Stephen Dawson wrote:
I do not play the tech sector as I stated in my OP.

But there are so may Apple fans here, I thought I would pass on what I saw on TV.

Jerry Nemeth wrote:
It has been my observation that Apple fans are totally devoted to Apple and will say or do anything to support Apple.

I am an open source fan.

Linux and Android.

I have never owned an Apple product, and likely never will.

Aug 17 12 04:59 pm Link

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Stephen Dawson

Posts: 29248

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Wye wrote:

I too have a chunk of their stock.  My guess is that they will split before they get to $1000.

I think Apple would like their stock price to be higher than Google's.

Aug 17 12 05:02 pm Link

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Brian T Rickey

Posts: 4008

Saint Louis, Missouri, US

apple is like blood, I need both to live

Aug 17 12 05:28 pm Link

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Stephen Dawson

Posts: 29248

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Brian T Rickey wrote:
apple is like blood, I need both to live

I think I will buy a 100 shares.

Aug 17 12 05:40 pm Link

Photographer

Instinct Images

Posts: 22653

San Diego, California, US

I'm surprised that so many of you think that Apple will add $400 BILLION worth of market cap so easily.

Stop and think about how many HUGE companies that is equal to - it's the value of Exxon Mobil!

Aug 17 12 07:44 pm Link

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PhillipM

Posts: 6560

Martin, Tennessee, US

Hope so.

I'm long AAPL

Aug 18 12 06:48 am Link

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Tropical Photography

Posts: 35399

Sarasota, Florida, US

Stephen Dawson wrote:

I think Apple would like their stock price to be higher than Google's.

As I recall, there have been some days where Apple was higher than Google..  At friday's close, they were only $29.03 behind...   And MILES ahead of Microsoft...

Aug 18 12 07:00 am Link

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Looknsee Photography

Posts: 21691

Portland, Oregon, US

Stephen Dawson wrote:
I have never owned an Apple product, and likely never will.

Me, too.  It's funny & ironic -- I have never owned an Apple product, but I do own a good chunk of stock.  Go figure.


Brian T Rickey wrote:
apple is like blood, I need both to live

No, you don't -- not both.  If you had to choose, giving up all your Apple toys or giving up all your blood, I think we'd lock you up if you chose wrong.

Aug 18 12 09:11 am Link

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R A V E N D R I V E

Posts: 15867

New York, New York, US

Instinct Images wrote:
I'm surprised that so many of you think that Apple will add $400 BILLION worth of market cap so easily.

Stop and think about how many HUGE companies that is equal to - it's the value of Exxon Mobil!

as long as china keeps their currency fixed, apple will continue its high margin currency arbitrage

I personally think they've got till 2015 before china's wages are unionized higher

as far as actually moving enough products, its tough to say, I think 400 billion worth that is impractical and unseen before. I think it is possible, but not at a fast enough growth pace that will please wall street for consecutive quarters

Aug 18 12 09:15 am Link

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Looknsee Photography

Posts: 21691

Portland, Oregon, US

Stephen Dawson wrote:
I think Apple would like their stock price to be higher than Google's.

Tropical Photography wrote:
As I recall, there have been some days where Apple was higher than Google..  At friday's close, they were only $29.03 behind...   And MILES ahead of Microsoft...

Guys -- you can't just look at the stock price to determine the value of a company.  For example, how many shares of common stock for each company are out there in the marketplace?  I doubt that Apple cares a whit about Google's stock price.

Apple's five year stock price

Google's five year stock price

Aug 18 12 09:17 am Link

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Looknsee Photography

Posts: 21691

Portland, Oregon, US

Just another update:
...  Apple stock came within spitting distance of $675 a share today.
...  It is hitting it's all time high.
...  It's 52 week low was less than $355.
...  Meaning that it's almost doubled its value in the past 52 weeks.

Of course, what goes up can come down, but with the holiday season approaching and with new versions of Apple's flagship products coming out next month, there is reason to be optimistic.

Still, I have my pessimistic devil on my shoulder, reminding me that uber-big companies always struggle to maintain their growth.  Further, the "advances" in these "flagship products" may not be exactly "revolutionary" (i.e. may or may not appeal to people who already have the earlier versions of these products).

But, it is definitely a stock to watch.

(Meanwhile, look at the recent history of stocks like Facebook and Groupon.  There's a lesson there, too).

Aug 21 12 08:44 am Link

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R A V E N D R I V E

Posts: 15867

New York, New York, US

I made 26% on AAPL today, so that was fun. I only closed the position because of the clear reversal pattern (3 day full candles)

I rarely use candlesticks to make a trading decision but that was too obvious. when I closed out AAPL was at $672

should have went short but I learned a lonnnng time ago not to short apple. way back in the $200s lol.

Aug 21 12 09:53 am Link

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Instinct Images

Posts: 22653

San Diego, California, US

Okay so here we are all these months later and Apple stock is down below $400. So who made money and who took it in the shorts?

When this thread was created AAPL closed at $648 and Friday it closed at $390.

How low will it go? Anyone still long AAPL? I hope some of you locked in your profits and made a nice wad of cash!

I never expected Apple to keep going up - didn't seem realistic to me - but then I didn't expect a 42% drop from the all time high either.

Apr 22 13 02:00 am Link

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Digitoxin

Posts: 13345

Houston, Texas, US

Instinct Images wrote:
I'm surprised that so many of you think that Apple will add $400 BILLION worth of market cap so easily.

Stop and think about how many HUGE companies that is equal to - it's the value of Exxon Mobil!

I don't own apple and I agree with you on some points but others will suggest:

1) Apple has a huge profit margin.  They represent 45% (something like that) of the entire industries profit.  That is not true of Exxon.

2) Apple has a huge pile of cash to deploy or return to shareholders.  That acts as both a buffer against drops and an engine towards growth.

3) Apple is currently leading the industry in the "post PC" environment.  If it was clear tomorrow that oil was going to be phased out in favor of jinxonjuice and Exxon had a huge market share in Jinxonjuice and also had a huge pile of cash, I'll bet that you would see Exxon have a big increase in capitalization.

Apple's stock is priced for a company that can continuously invent highly profitable disruptive technology.  If they slip just a little from being able to do that (and many feel they did over the last year)  the stock will continue to fall....  That is Apple's challenge.  They need something special within 12 months.... A new iPhone won't do it.  They will need something big - like a disruptive ecosystem for TV similar to the iTunes model that will challenge cable.  If not that then they need something else.

Apple's competition has caught up and in some ways (other than profit or margin) is besting Apple.  Without something big in the next year, I will suggest that apple will not hold this even this stock price (but, as mentioned, their cash hoard will buffer much of the downfall from here)

Apr 22 13 03:04 am Link

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Looknsee Photography

Posts: 21691

Portland, Oregon, US

Stephen Dawson wrote:
But if you like the iProduct line, you may want to buy a few shares.

Late last December, another Apple zealot / iDiot posted an article predicting that Apple stock price will hit $1,110 by the end of this year.  Then Apple plunged roughly 30%.  This same zealot then posted a link to an article predicting that Apple stock price will hit $1,600 by the end of 2014.

Each time, I challenged this zealot -- I made a friendly wager (involving no cash; the loser would have to abstain from these forums for two weeks), and each time, she refused.  I take this to mean that she didn't believe the dribble she was posting.

To be fair, she did offer my a counter-bet.  When Apple stock was around its 52 week low, she offered to bet me $100 that Apple stock would close higher than its current price.  Note:  your $900 per share is ~2.3 times its current price; the original $1,110 (from the December link) is nearly 3 times its current price, and this zealot was only willing to bet that it would be better than its 52 week low.  That's the extent of her faith.

In any case, it's exceedingly easy to make these predictions, especially since there is no accountability.  Heck, by the end of the year, nearly everyone will forget these wild-ass predictions.

I believe that people make these predictions, wrap their predictions with official sounding company names, hoping to get gullible people to run the stock price up so that they can dump their shares at a better price.


So, bottom line:  Do you believe your "$900 per share by the end of the year" prediction.  Want to bet?

Apr 22 13 08:50 am Link

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Gulag

Posts: 1250

Duluth, Georgia, US

Stephen Dawson wrote:
A guy by the name of Peter Misek at a company called Jeffries has called this.

http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/08 … et-to-900/

He says all of Apple's new releases in the fall look good.

I do not play this sector.

But if you like the iProduct line, you may want to buy a few shares.

I checked its chart the other day and posted my own thinking there:

Huge classical head & shoulder portrait (aka collapse) here. Apple is down 43.5% from its 'generational high'. Now cheaper than an iPad2, but less tasty, it appears more than a few 'smart' index-tracking momentum-monkeys are jumping ship heading into earnings. Its P&F chart prints the next stop at $308.

Anyon's bottom fishing AAPL lately?

http://www.modelmayhem.com/po.php?thread_id=882646

Apr 22 13 08:56 am Link

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Looknsee Photography

Posts: 21691

Portland, Oregon, US

Digitoxin wrote:
1) Apple has had a huge profit margin.

Past performance is not necessarily a predictor of future performance.  I will note...
...  Stock price has retreated quite a bit from its 52 week high.
...  The competition has caught up.  There are viable (and cheaper) offers from other
     companies.
...  People are complaining about Windows 8 today, but I believe that Microsoft is in it for the
     long run.  We may see the impact of Windows phones & tablets by the end of the year, or
     certainly next year.


Digitoxin wrote:
2) Apple has a huge pile of cash to deploy or return to shareholders.  That acts as both a buffer against drops and an engine towards growth.

Well, not as much as they used to have.  And there are all sorts of lawsuits by shareholders to get that money, meaning that Apple doesn't have it available for product development or marketing.


Digitoxin wrote:
3) Apple is currently leading the industry in the "post PC" environment.

I have no idea what this means and how that translates into stock price.

Apr 22 13 08:57 am Link

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Looknsee Photography

Posts: 21691

Portland, Oregon, US

Damn -- another zombie thread!  Stop resurrecting old threads -- I get caught often.

In that spirit, I'll note that this "$900" prediction was "made" in the middle of 2012 -- Apply stock closed 2012 no where close to $900 per share.

Apr 22 13 08:58 am Link

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Gulag

Posts: 1250

Duluth, Georgia, US

Looknsee Photography wrote:
Damn -- another zombie thread!  Stop resurrecting old threads -- I get caught often.

In that spirit, I'll note that this "$900" prediction was "made" in the middle of 2012 -- Apply stock closed 2012 no where close to $900 per share.

Zombie. That's the precise word. In the tech world, everything comes and leaves. Like General MacArthur used to say, it just fades away. Anyone still remembers Sun Microsystems that gave us those Unix servers that powered up the Internet in the first place? RIP.

Apr 22 13 09:16 am Link

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What Fun Productions

Posts: 20192

Phoenix, Arizona, US

Looknsee Photography wrote:

Well, not as much as they used to have.  And there are all sorts of lawsuits by shareholders to get that money, meaning that Apple doesn't have it available for product development or marketing.

Not sure this is true.

Apr 22 13 09:27 am Link

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Peach Jones

Posts: 6400

Champaign, Illinois, US

Being an apple person for over 20 years I doubt if it will hit the $900 mark. Steve Jobs was the real innovator and drive behind Apple, and without him I don't think it will flourish like it has over the past 10 years.

However, on the other side.....if Apple does get back it innovation and creativity, I think that is good for everyone. And I am including companies like Samsung and HP too. It is only after Apple has huge successes with new products (such as iphone, ipod and ipads for example), that other companies swoop in and attempt to steal the technology for their own gain. So believe me, all the other companies are hoping Apple will be what it was about 3 year ago, because without it they have less to produce.

Apr 22 13 09:37 am Link

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R A V E N D R I V E

Posts: 15867

New York, New York, US

I have an Apple earning's play already initiated. They report earnings Tuesday evening.

I lose if Apple share price is between 390 and 398 on wednesday morning. Very suspenseful for me

Apr 22 13 09:48 am Link

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Matt Knowles

Posts: 3563

Ferndale, California, US

Instinct Images wrote:
Okay so here we are all these months later and Apple stock is down below $400. So who made money and who took it in the shorts?

When this thread was created AAPL closed at $648 and Friday it closed at $390.

How low will it go? Anyone still long AAPL? I hope some of you locked in your profits and made a nice wad of cash!

I never expected Apple to keep going up - didn't seem realistic to me - but then I didn't expect a 42% drop from the all time high either.

Bought Apple at $7. Sold it at $600. Made money.

Apr 22 13 09:54 am Link

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Jerry Nemeth

Posts: 28014

Dearborn, Michigan, US

$395. now.

Apr 22 13 10:05 am Link