TRPn Pics wrote: Ha! The Republicans still hold the house, if you think the last four years was gridlock, you haven't seen nothing.
Mitch McConnell's grand strategy was an abject failure. Now the House and Senate GOP is faced with the sequester, without any improvement in their political capital. I expect there to be some continued obstructionism, but rigid adherence to the extremist positions will be the equivalent of the GOP shooting itself in the foot. Also, with the changing demographics in the US, continued intransigence on the part of the GOP will eventually cost them in the 2014 mid terms.
The Senate results are a smashing defeat for the GOP. 2/3rds of the seats up for election were democratic. If the GOP wins only 50%, heck, 40% of those seats then they hold the majority in the Senate.
There are a couple of lessons from this:
1. The GOP primaries allowed some extreme candidates. Lugar would have been a shoo-in for re-election in Indiana. Missouri is now one of the most conservative states in the country and McCaskill is very unpopular. This is an issue that the GOP has to confront.
2. Quality of the candidate matters. There are really only two strong Senatorial candidates I can think of that lost: Brown in MA and Kerrey in Nebraska. In just about every other instance, the person who was clearly a strong candidate one (or in some cases, it was two weak candidates).
3. SuperPac money, as odious as it is, just didn't appear to influence many Senatorial elections. It did matter in a number of House elections. But not for the Senate.
It was a devastating loss for they should have easily won control of the Senate. The OP is partialy right IMO as some of the candidates were too extreme on social issues and that became the issue rather than the horrible job the Dems and administration has done on the economy.
It is one thing to hold very anti abortion views, it is another to introduce the issue where is does not belong. We need smart candidates that know when the best thing to say is nothing at all or something vacuous that sounds lofty, an Obama trademark.
Hall Photo
Posts: 12,331
Boston, Massachusetts, US
OMarkcompa wrote: You really don't understand what happened do you? The Republicans lost precisely because they did purge themselves of those on the right.
Pretty hard to wrap that story around what happened in Indiana and Missouri. Not exactly a couple of hippie-filled RINO states.
What happened to Lugar should be the one thing that really makes the Republican party take a long, hard look in the mirror over the next few months.
I'll be checking in with Frum daily for the next few weeks. Pretty sure if the GOP's gonna have a 'come to Jesus' moment, it'll start there. Hell, he was leading the way towards sanity in 2010 and got sacked for it.
MB-2 wrote: I'll be checking in with Frum daily for the next few weeks. Pretty sure if the GOP's gonna have a 'come to Jesus' moment, it'll start there. Hell, he was leading the way towards sanity in 2010 and got sacked for it.
I don't know. I was telling people back after the 2008 election that what we'd see is a GOP that regained seats in the mid-term 2010 races (combination of being out of power, President always loses mid-term seats first term, bad economy) with the house lurching to the right in some fashion, then getting spanked in the Presidential and Senatorial races in 2012 and coming to their senses.
But right now I don't see it. I think Limbaugh and the SuperPac donors are just too far to the right, too extreme, too condemning of RINOs. Too many in the GOP will chalk up this loss to Romney and not the Republican party. They'll figure that if they put either Martinez or Rubio on the ticket as a VP candidate then they'll close the latino and female gaps and that will suffice and then just run as a "True Republican".
Remember, what really was the "come to jesus" realization for the dems was in 1984 when Mondale (a good and honorable man) just got shwacked by Reagan. The formation of the Democratic Leadership Council really took form on the basis of that election. But you still had the nomination and loss of Michael Dukakis (another 4 year election cycle) before the DLC led to a series of more conservative/moderate democratic candidates, rules and focus that got Bill Clinton elected. To see that happen on the GOP side, you'd have to see major, just sweeping changes with donors, primary rules, and access of the GOP media and blogs (people like Limbaugh, Hanmity, Beck and Breitburt would have to be minimized). For instance, Limbaugh has been screaming since 2006 that the GOP is screwing up badly by not making immigration a major issue, a wedge issue, to help build support with whites by talking about law breakers, and mexican welfare cheats, etc. That series of GOP positions on immigration and hispanics didn't happen overnight, it can't be reversed overnight and there are too many influential far right sources who aren't just going to turn the page instantly. I actually think there's a significant chance that someone like Santorum will be a GOP front-runner in 2016. I don't think the GOP can remake their ideology and positioning and focus in 1-2 years (which is what it would take to get someone who would have the support of the party to benefit from insights from this election). Now, if the GOP loses the election for the Presidency in 2016 (which means they will have lost 5 out of the last 7 Presidential elections) then you may see that transition.
Mike Kelcher
Posts: 11,625
Minneapolis, Minnesota, US
The MN Michelle Bachmann/Jim Graves Senate race results are finally in. Bachmann won by a very slim margin....just like the POTUS did. What both Bachmann and the POTUs need to remember is that nearly 50% of the voters preferred the "other guy".
"A Nation divided against itself, cannot endure".
~Abraham Lincoln (from the Bible...Mark 3:24)
Daniels Light
Posts: 4,911
Fort Lauderdale, Florida, US
OMarkcompa wrote:
You really don't understand what happened do you? The Republicans lost precisely because they did purge themselves of those on the right.
If the Tea Party can't hold Florida (West is out) then shifting farther right isn't going to help. Nobody is thinking Tea Party Gov. Scott (30% approval rating for the last two years) is going to be able to hold his seat.
If the Tea Party can't hold Florida (West is out) then shifting farther right isn't going to help. Nobody is thinking Tea Party Gov. Scott (30% approval rating for the last two years) is going to be able to hold his seat.
What you fail to realize is that West won his seat from a long time democrat.
The seat simply goes back to a democrat now.
It also means democrats are racist for not voting for a black man.
I don't know. I was telling people back after the 2008 election that what we'd see is a GOP that regained seats in the mid-term 2010 races (combination of being out of power, President always loses mid-term seats first term, bad economy) with the house lurching to the right in some fashion, then getting spanked in the Presidential and Senatorial races in 2012 and coming to their senses.
But right now I don't see it. I think Limbaugh and the SuperPac donors are just too far to the right, too extreme, too condemning of RINOs. Too many in the GOP will chalk up this loss to Romney and not the Republican party. They'll figure that if they put either Martinez or Rubio on the ticket as a VP candidate then they'll close the latino and female gaps and that will suffice and then just run as a "True Republican".
Remember, what really was the "come to jesus" realization for the dems was in 1984 when Mondale (a good and honorable man) just got shwacked by Reagan. The formation of the Democratic Leadership Council really took form on the basis of that election. But you still had the nomination and loss of Michael Dukakis (another 4 year election cycle) before the DLC led to a series of more conservative/moderate democratic candidates, rules and focus that got Bill Clinton elected. To see that happen on the GOP side, you'd have to see major, just sweeping changes with donors, primary rules, and access of the GOP media and blogs (people like Limbaugh, Hanmity, Beck and Breitburt would have to be minimized). For instance, Limbaugh has been screaming since 2006 that the GOP is screwing up badly by not making immigration a major issue, a wedge issue, to help build support with whites by talking about law breakers, and mexican welfare cheats, etc. That series of GOP positions on immigration and hispanics didn't happen overnight, it can't be reversed overnight and there are too many influential far right sources who aren't just going to turn the page instantly. I actually think there's a significant chance that someone like Santorum will be a GOP front-runner in 2016. I don't think the GOP can remake their ideology and positioning and focus in 1-2 years (which is what it would take to get someone who would have the support of the party to benefit from insights from this election). Now, if the GOP loses the election for the Presidency in 2016 (which means they will have lost 5 out of the last 7 Presidential elections) then you may see that transition.
Ed
I suspect you're right- this election was a huge blow to the conservative alternate universe, but I'd wager they're likelier to patch the holes in the echo chamber than to embrace reality. Frankly, I'm happy to see them do so, as it'll only deepen and prolong their grave electoral liabilities.
afplcc wrote: The Senate results are a smashing defeat for the GOP. 2/3rds of the seats up for election were democratic. If the GOP wins only 50%, heck, 40% of those seats then they hold the majority in the Senate.
The question is, how many of those 2/3ds of the seats that were up were going to go Democrat no matter what?
There are a number of states that aren't likely to send a Republican to the Senate no matter what the quality of the candidate. My home state is one of them.
So, of the seats that were up for re-election, how many of them actually were in play? Now, the Republicans lost seats, so without question, they didn't do as well as they should have, but it is not really honest to suggest that all of the seats that were up for election were really in play (for either party).
The question is, how many of those 2/3ds of the seats that were up were going to go Democrat no matter what?
There are a number of states that aren't likely to send a Republican to the Senate no matter what the quality of the candidate. My home state is one of them.
So, of the seats that were up for re-election, how many of them actually were in play? Now, the Republicans lost seats, so without question, they didn't do as well as they should have, but it is not really honest to suggest that all of the seats that were up for election were really in play (for either party).
Vita Photography wrote: ...
What you fail to realize is that West won his seat from a long time democrat.
The seat simply goes back to a democrat now.
It also means democrats are racist for not voting for a black man.
You lack familiarity with the situation. In Florida, you do not have to reside in the congressional district you run in. Allen West originally won his seat in a district that was so heavily Gerrymandered as Republican, that it was a miracle a Democrat had gotten in in the first place. When the Gerrymandering problem was substantially improved by a citizen-mandated state amendment, West went searching for another district that was viewed as Republican-friendly. He thought he found it in district 18, and the initial polls were all in his favor, so it wasn't racism. His opponent fought a good battle and edged him out fair and square.
Today, though, Allen West refuses to concede and is suing. Sour grapes to the max.
You really don't understand what happened do you? The Republicans lost precisely because they did purge themselves of those on the right.
And you and your ilk are to blame for the next 4 years
I am no longer a Republican because of you and your ilk,but make no mistake about it,I despise
liberal economic policies,and other policies that could be implimented by Obama.
Get a clue,if there was any mandate this past Tuesday it was because most of America rejectedExtremist Christian/rascist/homophobic intrusion into their lives.
Look at all the soical issues that passed.
Look at the 2 extremist Christian senate candidates that lost very winnable seats.
Longwatcher
Posts: 3,634
Newport News, Virginia, US
on CNN GOP pundits were touting Marco Rubio for president in 2016, not just VP, but president.
I suspect unless something changes with him or someone else stronger comes up he is a very likely GOP choice in 2016.
However, I am suspecting that the GOP will still stick their foot in mouth and lose. But it all depends on the who the Dems pick for their lead in 2016. Right now I am actually hoping for Hillary.
If they pick someone like Biden, the democrats would lose to Rubio if the election were held today. Biden is a great VP, but he doesn't have the charisma for president, except as a backup.
humorously they were saying Christie is on the outs, even though I personally feel his chances improved dramatically because of his actions during the aftermath of Sandy, but for the GOP politics trump helping people, so he is on the out.
The question is, how many of those 2/3ds of the seats that were up were going to go Democrat no matter what?
There are a number of states that aren't likely to send a Republican to the Senate no matter what the quality of the candidate. My home state is one of them.
So, of the seats that were up for re-election, how many of them actually were in play? Now, the Republicans lost seats, so without question, they didn't do as well as they should have, but it is not really honest to suggest that all of the seats that were up for election were really in play (for either party).
First, you're right--all races aren't equal. A hypothetical open Senate race in California is just going to be really, really tough for a republican to be competitive in. Ditto with a senate race in, say, Mississippi.
Here were the open Senate races: AZ, CT, Hawaii, Indiana, Maine, Nebraska, NM, ND, TX, VA, and WI. Out of those races, only CT and Hawaii is a state that you'd expect to automatically go democratic (and the GOP contender was a very popular governor). Additionally, you had democrats competing in a couple of states (Fl, MN, Missouri, Ohio) as incombents where they were vulnerable. Either that state is republican (Missouri) or is a battleground state (FL, MN, Ohio) or in Sherrod Brown's case, he was targeted by a bunch of SuperPacs and dramatically outspent.
So we're talking 15 races in which 13 of them either favor the GOP or they're battleground states in which the GOP was seeking to compete nationally and there was SuperPac money...comparatively even ground. All the GOP has to do is win 40% of the states where they SHOULD win (b/c it's a GOP state) or it's an open seat in a battleground state and they take the senate. But by my count they went 10-5 in those states that either favored the GOP in an open race (like Missouri or ND) or were an even race (Ohio, VA).
If you look at the election results as a whole, you can try to discount Obama's election by arguing the percentage of vote that he won. But there's no way of getting around the GOP senatorial results--that was just a shwacking. That's something that can't really be blamed on Romney and probably not even John Kyl.
afplcc wrote: But by my count they went 10-5 in those states that either favored the GOP in an open race (like Missouri or ND) or were an even race (Ohio, VA).
10-5 sounds like they went 66%, which is quite a bit better than 40%.....
Lawrence Guy
Posts: 17,129
PUTNAM VALLEY, New York, US
OMarkcompa wrote:
You really don't understand what happened do you? The Republicans lost precisely because they did purge themselves of those on the right.
Are you actually saying that those people who were purged were right-wing, and they voted for Obama, who is - according to the spew - lefter than Marx?
Al Lock Photography wrote: 10-5 sounds like they went 66%, which is quite a bit better than 40%.....
Al, I wasn't clear--my fault. The Democrats won 10 (and lost 5) in races which were either open (and in a state that leaned republican or was a battleground state like NM, Nevada, VA and Ohio that the GOP thought they could win OR contested heavily with a President campaign presence and/or major SuperPac money) OR involved an incumbent who appeared to be swimming upstream (McCaskill for instance, maybe Sherrod Brown in Ohio would count here). To put it another way, in 15 races where everyone would agree the GOP had a good shot or even a great shot, they (the GOP) had a 33% winning percentage. So if we discount the states that clearly leaned democratic or republican states that had a republican incumbent, you get those 15 races. If it has been a 50-50 split, b/c so many democratic seats were exposed this election cycle, then the Senate would be majority Republican right now (well, in January 2013). Instead, the dems gained seats.
Al, I wasn't clear--my fault. The Democrats won 10 (and lost 5) in races which were either open (and in a state that leaned republican or was a battleground state like NM, Nevada, VA and Ohio that the GOP thought they could win OR contested heavily with a President campaign presence and/or major SuperPac money) OR involved an incumbent who appeared to be swimming upstream (McCaskill for instance, maybe Sherrod Brown in Ohio would count here). To put it another way, in 15 races where everyone would agree the GOP had a good shot or even a great shot, they (the GOP) had a 33% winning percentage. So if we discount the states that clearly leaned democratic or republican states that had a republican incumbent, you get those 15 races. If it has been a 50-50 split, b/c so many democratic seats were exposed this election cycle, then the Senate would be majority Republican right now (well, in January 2013). Instead, the dems gained seats.
Ed
Ok, the Republicans went 5 - 10.... got it. Thanks.