Robb Mann wrote:
Its hard to predict the future. Smartphones are killing P&S sales across the board. Mirrorless sales are down in Europe & North America. Hard to say if the mirrorless drop is a trend or not. Mirrorless sales would likely pick up if Nikon or Canon took the segment serious and released uncompromised mirrorless cameras.

How many of us actually carry a P&S anymore? I still have an old G10, it stays in the center console of my truck to get the few shots I can't get with my iPhone...

From what I have heard from friends at N the camera they are producing didn't catch on as well as they had hoped.

Robb Mann wrote:
Its hard to predict the future. Smartphones are killing P&S sales across the board. Mirrorless sales are down in Europe & North America. Hard to say if the mirrorless drop is a trend or not. Mirrorless sales would likely pick up if Nikon or Canon took the segment serious and released uncompromised mirrorless cameras.

I think canon and nikon most likely saw the market trend the same way the panasonic guy saw it. Like most people that buy a budget SLR, they never buy anything beyond the kit lens. I think mirrorless is the same, they might buy 1 zoom in addition to a pancake lens. Having a whole separate lens line will be a money pit. "Enthusiasts" low level SLR users that buy multiple lenses are a fraction of the budget SLR market. Enthusiast mirrorless users are a fraction of that fraction. Plus there's the chance the Enthusiast SLR will jump to the pro bodies and expensive lenses, mirrorless doesn't offer that upgrade path. Figuring ways to keep single lens line is smarter long term

Virtual Studio wrote:
The big target market for mirrorless right now is SE Asiam young women. They want something small enough to put in a purse whcih gives DSLR quality.

You simply cant get that with a FF DSLR.

North America is only one market - and it only takes the one marketing breakthrough to have the same shift happen here.

Personally I think you will see the death of APS DSLRs and the market split into FF DSLR for some specialist users (the guys who used to use medium format) in the days on film and mirrorless for the enthusiast market.

As I mentioned, sony is already making point and shoots with large sensors. Granted the FF is $2700 but they'll come down in price eventually. Their $600 one comes with a sensor same size as the Nikon 1 series.
  Walking around the US open I saw alot of those compact superzooms, which is more a SLR type form factor than compact mirrorless. If you're shooting alot its just easier to handle when using all day. Having a viewfinder makes it easier to track action, and you're actually able to see in bright sunlight. I don't see SLR form factor as going away

GM Photography wrote:
I realize they're not a player on the scale of Nikon or Canon, but Olympus appears to have completely discontinued their DSLR lineup while constantly cranking out new compact mirror-less bodies.  The rumor mill among the few remaining Olympus "faithful" is that the successor to the OM-D will be a "Pro" mirror-less body that will be introduced this month.

For a company that has filed for bankruptcy a few times i don't know how reliable they are as a future market predictor. Panasonic has taken over the 4/3 and m4/3 market, and Sony and Fuji dominate the the compact interchangeable lens market

Smedley Whiplash wrote:
In some respects Sumsung may be leading the pack with their camera that has an android operating system, which might allow 3rd parties to write custom operational apps and in-camera processing apps that the mfg can't imagine. To me, thats really the future.

Thats why companies are developing just a sensor to attach to the back of the lens and transmit to phone. Building android OS into the camera means it will be obsolete in less than a year when android or apple updates it's OS

Yingwah Productions wrote:

For a company that has filed for bankruptcy a few times i don't know how reliable they are as a future market predictor. Panasonic has taken over the 4/3 and m4/3 market, and Sony and Fuji dominate the the compact interchangeable lens market

The bankruptcy was a result of some insider financial hijinks, not their camera division, which is a small part of Olympus.  I wouldn't consider them to be predicting the market, but they are competing well with all of the other manufacturers in the mirrorless market, with 7 of the top 20 best selling models in Japan (I couldn't find a US or worldwide list or 2013 figures):  http://www.43rumors.com/cipa-report-on- … -produced/

All types of camera sales are declining, with the exception of high end DSLR's.  This is caused by cell phone cameras more than anything else.

gl-amour wrote:
I prefer to drink Panasonic's Kool-Aid from their recently released, July 2013, Annual Report to investors:
"Digital still camera (DSC) business: concentrate on mirror- less cameras and high value-added compact cameras
We intend to concentrate resources on mirror-less cameras and high value-added compact cameras, and at the same time work to reduce the number of entry-level compact camera models and total fixed costs"

Thats actually pretty much in line with what i've already said. Their big SLR type camera's are mirrorless and they'll continue with them since they're popular with filmmakers. All their advertising material tout "creator of the world's first* digital single lens mirrorless (DSLM) camera." i.e. alternative to DSLR.
But they'll most likely get rid of the compact bodies similar to sony NEX and Nikon 1. Since for panasonic they use the same mount its not a big deal, but their lenses will start to get bigger and more rugged so it can withstand use by pros. But I think the NEX and V1 lenses will disappear over time.

"high value-added compact cameras" means they'll continue to improve upon the compact 60X zoom like i was using and put in better sensor and make compacts similar to canon G series type enthusiast type camera.

Yingwah Productions wrote:

As I mentioned, sony is already making point and shoots with large sensors. Granted the FF is $2700 but they'll come down in price eventually. Their $600 one comes with a sensor same size as the Nikon 1 series.
  Walking around the US open I saw alot of those compact superzooms, which is more a SLR type form factor than compact mirrorless. If you're shooting alot its just easier to handle when using all day. Having a viewfinder makes it easier to track action, and you're actually able to see in bright sunlight. I don't see SLR form factor as going away

Yes, I think the mirrorless cameras will be here to stay but will slowly move towards full frame rather than APS since full frame sensors are becoming more affordable.

This will be a great time for Olympus to switch to full frame interchangeable lens cameras since they already have the "know how" with mirrorless technology. Sony, with their RX-1, is also in a good position to go in that direction.

Happy Guy Photos wrote:

Yes, I think the mirrorless cameras will be here to stay but will slowly move towards full frame rather than APS since full frame sensors are becoming more affordable.

This will be a great time for Olympus to switch to full frame interchangeable lens cameras since they already have the "know how" with mirrorless technology. Sony, with their RX-1, is also in a good position to go in that direction.

It's about size. The RX1 has a fixed 35mm lens and it completely dominates the body. If you put any sort of zoom there - or a decent portrait lens it would be so humungeously huge that the it would ne more like using a telescope than a camera.

Virtual Studio wrote:
It's about size. The RX1 has a fixed 35mm lens and it completely dominates the body. If you put any sort of zoom there - or a decent portrait lens it would be so humungeously huge that the it would ne more like using a telescope than a camera.

I own a Canon EOS M with a Tamron 28-75mm f2.8 and adapted to it within a short time. The Sony RX-1 is definitely larger than the EOS M.

Yingwah Productions wrote:

Thats why companies are developing just a sensor to attach to the back of the lens and transmit to phone. Building android OS into the camera means it will be obsolete in less than a year when android or apple updates it's OS

Ricoh has been doing this for some time.  It hasn't caught on.  The problem with mating sensors to lenses is that it's a good idea with no real market.  It's great that it makes the lens stick out less and pick up little or no dust, but that's it.

You need to pay for the sensor every time, which alienates hobbyists.  You don't always get to use the the best sensor with your favourite lens, which alienates pros.  The compact thing is nice, but ... if you were the sort of person to do the research, and you were okay with the idea of using a potentially inferior sensor for the sake of convenience, you'd be buying a point and shoot instead of an interchangeable lens camera anyway.

I just don't know who they think their market is.

If I had to ballpark it, I would agree that eventually, there will be very few options for interchangeable lens cameras under $1000 or so.  I would guess that within a couple generations the semi-professional cameras like the D7100 and 70D will lose some features, and will become $1000 cameras ... and no one will make a DSLR for less, unless it's a cost-cutting model designed for students.

I suspect that the student market makes it impossible to ignore inexpensive mirrorless/DSLR cameras.  It's not a large portion of the market, and is hardly worth designing or marketing for; but if everyone discontinues their $500 ILCs, the one company that brings them back would make an absolute killing.

And if that doesn't happen, then you can expect the market for used DSLRs to shoot right up.  For a few years after most manufacturers canned their 35mm SLRs, but before school programs started to go digital, there were several models that absolutely rocketed up in price.  Depending on the version, the K1000 could have been worth four times its current price during those years.

I wouldn't be surprised if every company had a single cheap, plasticky model at $500 that they don't even want to advertise, just so that nobody else gets a monopoly on them.  They'd rather sell you a point and shoot so that they can sell you another camera sooner, but they don't want anyone else getting all their business that they'd give up.

Zack Zoll wrote:

Ricoh has been doing this for some time.  It hasn't caught on.  The problem with mating sensors to lenses is that it's a good idea with no real market.  It's great that it makes the lens stick out less and pick up little or no dust, but that's it.

You need to pay for the sensor every time, which alienates hobbyists.  You don't always get to use the the best sensor with your favourite lens, which alienates pros.  The compact thing is nice, but ... if you were the sort of person to do the research, and you were okay with the idea of using a potentially inferior sensor for the sake of convenience, you'd be buying a point and shoot instead of an interchangeable lens camera anyway.

If you're talking about the Ricoh GXR http://www.ricoh.com/r_dc/gxr/features.html
its a totally different concept from what I'm talking about.

WVIL-WIRELESS VIEWFINDER INTERCHANGEABLE LENS explains it best
http://www.artefactgroup.com/wvil/

Even though it says concept, other companies are developing same idea.

Samsung already has "Smart Camera" that you can fully control remotely from a smartphone.
http://mirrorlesscentral.com/ces-2013-s … d-sharing/

the next obvious step is just to strip everything off the camera other than the sensor and shutter

Yingwah Productions wrote:

If you're talking about the Ricoh GXR http://www.ricoh.com/r_dc/gxr/features.html
its a totally different concept from what I'm talking about.

WVIL-WIRELESS VIEWFINDER INTERCHANGEABLE LENS explains it best
http://www.artefactgroup.com/wvil/

Even though it says concept, other companies are developing same idea.

Samsung already has "Smart Camera" that you can fully control remotely from a smartphone.
http://mirrorlesscentral.com/ces-2013-s … d-sharing/

the next obvious step is just to strip everything off the camera other than the sensor and shutter

Unfortunately, the NX300 which is a much better camera, only allows you to snap the shutter with the App, and doesn't even allow you set the camera parameters first...  it's wifi setting is it's own automatic program which doesn't seem to match any of the other settings on the camera.  It's pretty damn good in daylight though.

Photos by Lorrin wrote:
And I can remember when 35 mm film would replace 2 1/4.

Were they ever wrong.  (some one forgot to tell these experts about digital)

Maybe Google glass will replace everything - then again maybe not

35mm never did replace 2 1/2...     Not by even the slightest stretch of the imagination.

ACPhotography wrote:

How many of us actually carry a P&S anymore? I still have an old G10, it stays in the center console of my truck to get the few shots I can't get with my iPhone...

From what I have heard from friends at N the camera they are producing didn't catch on as well as they had hoped.

My wife has one but hasn't touched it since we got iPhones.  Quality is just as good, and the phone has wifi/cell service, so no need to ever plug it in to a computer to upload (and with syncing through Dropbox, no need to plug in to download pictures).

ChanStudio - OtherSide wrote:
Eventually we will see more of  APS and 35mm sensor on smaller/mirrorless body. These P&S with 1/X sensor will be phased out.

Doubtful... 4-3rds manufacturers are ramping up very good alternatives in smaller packages. The P GX7 is gonna rock and I'm very sure the GH line is going to be streamlined for size along the path of the OLY.

Legacys 7 wrote:
Mirrorless slr is what will eventually phase out ovf slr.

A mirrorless Single Lens camera isn't a Single Lens Reflex camera.

ChanStudio - OtherSide wrote:
Eventually we will see more of  APS and 35mm sensor on smaller/mirrorless body. These P&S with 1/X sensor will be phased out.

Yes, I agree.

I see full size sensors being mated to mirrorless cameras. Sony is in a good position to lead the way by making the RX-1 into an interchangeable lens camera.