Garry k wrote:
Personally I was down about 1 percent the previous 2 days but made most of it back today with gold stocks ( NUGT and Kirkland Lake )

continuing to add to my positions in both gold related securities having recouped my tech losses of last week

rxz wrote:
The Dow had another interesting day.  Remember, it's still October.  Traders bet and set trends on what they think will happen.

Influencing factors:
- China's slowing economic growth. (Watch Single's Day {11/11} for spending -it's like our Black Friday)
- Slow EU economic growth.
- Rising Prime Rate.
- Tariff's/trade war ??
- US midterm elections.  Big corporations probably won't be happy with a Blue House if it happens.
- Saudi Arabia/Khashoggi and any effect on oil
- Migrants to Europe and U.S. and rise in protectionism. 
- Regional conflicts growing.

Trump's incompetent management of the economy (tariffs) and Congress' spineless lack of willingness to tell him to stick his tariffs where the sun don't shine.

Maybe a little Khashoggi. What people have failed to understand is that we no longer need Saudi Arabian oil. Thus, we no longer have any need for that terrorist (9/11) state with its current pissant ruler. Some of the more dull-witted elements of our own Government like to keep the Saudis in our pocket, however, as a possible means of making aggressive moves towards Iran ( a country that has been making efforts to move in a constructive direction in recent years, unlike the Saudis).

CaliModels wrote:
Dow down 600+ on Wed-24. However, with the rapid slide, there now could be (at least) a short term rally. If I were to guess, there could be massive move on Thur or Fri. Also, in these conditions, the markets could pull down sharply, then rally sharply within the same day. Notable recent earnings beats by Phillip Morris-last wk, Tesla and Microsoft.

Well, Tesla actually HAD earnings.....

Garry k wrote:
With Strong Quarterly Earnings Reports
Hope for a Positive Trade Deal with China
Dollar Steady
and Oil and Gold Prices in decllinie .......

I think we have a repireve on my prediction

but for how long ?

Expect volatility with a short term trend downwards and a flat line for longer term averages.
The market does not like uncertainty. We have that.
Elections pending, substandard (or worse) US "diplomacy" in trade war with China, other events. Expecting China to lay down and whimper because you are publicly nasty is not good strategy. Has not worked, will not work. New York Real Estate Buzzard tactics have no place on the theater of World Finance. A monkey trying to do a man's job.

Individual stocks will do very well long term. Wait for bottoms to come in, some great stocks are a ways off yet.
CGC, BABA, NVDA, WMT, RTN, LMT are all worth watching. Precious metals are iffy, rare earth metals (lithium etc.) are worth watching.

Recently did a very profitable trade with NIO's IPO and BABA. Would not try again or recommend to anybody!!!! Details are pointless, once in a lifetime opportunity. There will be many more, tread with caution. You are at the casino at that point.

Shadow Dancer wrote:
Expect volatility with a short term trend downwards and a flat line for longer term averages.
The market does not like uncertainty. We have that.
Elections pending, substandard (or worse) US "diplomacy" in trade war with China, other events. Expecting China to lay down and whimper because you are publicly nasty is not good strategy. Has not worked, will not work. New York Real Estate Buzzard tactics have no place on the theater of World Finance. A monkey trying to do a man's job.

Interesting, but here are some facts:

GDP grew by 3.5% in 3rd Qtr. (far outpacing expectations)
Unemployment lowest since the 1960's
Number of Americans on benefits lowest since the 1960's
Kaiser Family Foundation revealed that Medicaid enrollment decreased for the first time since 2007
African American, Latino and women are all working at higher rates than in decades.
Low wage workers see wage gains

The stock market is only one measurement of the economy and it is LONG OVERDUE for a correction.

What Fun Productions wrote:
Interesting, but here are some facts:

GDP grew by 3.5% in 3rd Qtr. (far outpacing expectations)
Unemployment lowest since the 1960's
Number of Americans on benefits lowest since the 1960's
Kaiser Family Foundation revealed that Medicaid enrollment decreased for the first time since 2007
African American, Latino and women are all working at higher rates than in decades.
Low wage workers see wage gains

The stock market is only one measurement of the economy and it is LONG OVERDUE for a correction.

The only on topic sentence is your last one, we are discussing the stock market. However, it is incorrect.
Past performance is not an indicator of future results.
There is no such thing as "LONG OVERDUE for a correction" and never has been.
The fact that there have been corrections every so often does not mean that there must be one every so often.
It doesn't work that way, at all.  There is no consistency in timing or severity of corrections, downturns, recessions, depressions, etc.

Plus you left out the lovely part about the deficit increasing rapidly with no plan to pay it down in existence. You can ignore the elephant in the room if you like but don't expect me to go along with it.

Most recent corrections have been caused by a wave of panic selling triggered by software bugs, sector rotations, and the growth of ETFs.

Now that we can all easily trade online you have people shorting the VIX, losing their ass and taking the market down.
You have ETFs that are holding a variety of stocks and one (GE, Sears?) gets rightfully hammered, taking the ETF way down and with it the entire sector. Hedge funds, mutual funds and many other traders are using pre-programmed computers to buy and sell, if a stock falls briefly below a selling point, computers sell a ton of it and it freefalls. At some point it hits the buy point and surges upward. Quarterly earnings season (NOW!) is always interesting because a company that outperforms by a margin considered too small by some large investors heads down, hits the Sell trigger point and slides down the hill until and unless it hits the Buy point

IPOs can be a fun little roller coaster if you have the stomach for them. They can be a tragic mistake if you panic and unload (or don't sell early, after the glow is gone, as I recently did).

More than ever before, people are thinking short term. They want fast profits. That is not always possible either. It took Amazon decades to become marginally profitable but one would have been wise to buy and hold from the early days (I wish was!!!!).

Corrections are opportunities to buy solid stocks.

Meanwhile, Walmart has decided they are going to go cashierless at Sam's Club. Kroger's has begun that transition and Amazon is looking to take Whole Foods in that direction as well. Alibaba has opened 65 stores in China and now are exploring restaurants with robot food servers.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/30/inside- … -more.html

That is coming here and soon. So your employment numbers will change and not to the good.
This is why I recommended keeping an eye on BABA above. They are going to have a small earnings beat when they report this quarter, then the events of the day (un-winnable and moronically "negotiated" trade wars) will drag them back down. It is too early to buy yet, we are not done sliding downward. A panic could take us way down.

Cash will be king, be prepared!!!

What Fun Productions wrote:

Interesting, but here are some facts:

GDP grew by 3.5% in 3rd Qtr. (far outpacing expectations)
Unemployment lowest since the 1960's
Number of Americans on benefits lowest since the 1960's
Kaiser Family Foundation revealed that Medicaid enrollment decreased for the first time since 2007
African American, Latino and women are all working at higher rates than in decades.
Low wage workers see wage gains

The stock market is only one measurement of the economy and it is LONG OVERDUE for a correction.

Sound really good..... But the US treasury is owes 21 trillions...And the average household has $15,000.00 in credit cards debts total...11.4 trillions......We are doing well...

Garry k wrote:
I think that the Market was overdue for a correction and that will be it for now

( in the absence of any seriously bad economic news )

But the Big One is still  coming

As mentioned previously - Interesting how well Apple ( and Microsoft ) fared this past couple of weeks

Some real strength in those 2 Tech Stocks

In the context of strong earnings, the headwinds are fairly recent.  While rising interest rates are good news for the financials, most companies have debt that must be paid back. As rates rise that can become more expensive and certainly it becomes more expensive if you must borrow. The tax cuts did provide a strong tailwind, many companies are using that bonus for buybacks which increases share price but doesn't really counter the effect of rising interest costs.

Last but certainly not least, tariffs are generating headwinds, from higher costs to supply chain disruptions. Both Ford and Harley Davidson recently announced their intention to build their products for the Chinese market in China. Since that is expensive to enact yet they move forward we can conclude that tariffs are becoming untenable with slim margins.

You are correct about Apple and Microsoft, both are long term game-changers in terms of how we live and do business.
Both are shape-shifters and have not become obselete. Extraordinary companies by any measure.

Shadow Dancer wrote:

Garry k wrote:
You are correct about Apple and Microsoft, both are long term game-changers in terms of how we live and do business.
Both are shape-shifters and have not become obselete. Extraordinary companies by any measure.

They surely are game-changers (well, Apple, anyway), and I am a stock holder, but I was TOTALLY underwhelmed by the the Mac Mini. The fools have gone 100% SSD -- no hard drive option.  STUPID! Computers are plenty fast enough these days; I value inexpensive storage capacity way more than the increment speed boost you get from SSD's. Plus, though hard drives can and do fail, I feel less confident in SSD's for reliability -- newer, shakier technology.

TEB-Art Photo wrote:
Plus, though hard drives can and do fail, I feel less confident in SSD's for reliability -- newer, shakier technology.

Newer?  SSDs have been around for over 30 years.

ZMPHOT   wrote:
Just an observation...not a recommendation !!  One of the most bullish chart patterns I noticed was   DRIP... but love that name. But it's direction seems to be changing

It rose for the first two weeks of Oct -otherwise pretty Bearish in my opinion

and Gush hasnt fared any better

Clearly I was wrong about Oil Prices remaining above 70

but thats not something i feel too bad about

Garry k wrote:
Clearly I was wrong about Oil Prices remaining above 70

but thats not something i feel too bad about

Oil goes up with a growing world economy and higher demand.  And it drops when the reverse happens.  And oil rises if there's instability in the region of a larger oil producer like a conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia.  New U.S. sanctions on Iran didn't affect oil long.  A slowing Chinese economy is likely easing oil prices.     

And since I have income from the oil business, I prefer to see the price of oil stay up.

rxz wrote:
Who will mow the lawns if the boarder is walled off??????

That is precisely the thing imbeciles in our present Government (not mentioning names) fail to comprehend.

1) We LIKE having landscapers and taco trucks*.
2) We like anybody, legal or otherwise paying taxes (e.g. sales tax) and contributing to our economy as we Americans are getting older and older and need things such as infrastructure and Social Security to be funded by younger people, with years ahead of them in the workforce.
3) We are hardly overwhelmed by immigrants; we can easily handle a large number. Now Europe, I can see how some countries might be absorbing enough newcomers to unsettle the natives. We are not anywhere close to that point.

*Not to pigeonhole or stereotype immigrants, but other than H-1B visa recipients, immigrants are not coming in as investment bankers or neurosurgeons. And, actually, the Mexican immigrants in our community are hard, hard working folk, very active in the community and the PTA.

TEB-Art Photo wrote:

That is precisely the thing imbeciles in our present Government (not mentioning names) fail to comprehend.

1) We LIKE having landscapers and taco trucks*.
2) We like anybody, legal or otherwise paying taxes (e.g. sales tax) and contributing to our economy as we Americans are getting older and older and need things such as infrastructure and Social Security to be funded by younger people, with years ahead of them in the workforce.
3) We are hardly overwhelmed by immigrants; we can easily handle a large number. Now Europe, I can see how some countries might be absorbing enough newcomers to unsettle the natives. We are not anywhere close to that point.

*Not to pigeonhole or stereotype immigrants, but other than H-1B visa recipients, immigrants are not coming in as investment bankers or neurosurgeons. And, actually, the Mexican immigrants in our community are hard, hard working folk, very active in the community and the PTA.

The even bigger question is - Who will harvest the crops?
For well over 60 years, migrant farmworkers have come north from Mexico and worked their way (just for example) up from Southern California all the way to Washington state harvesting crops as they ripen and mature. Many of them prune trees and tie grape vines on the trip back south. Then they take their meager earnings back down to Mexico for the winter and wait for the next season.
The two scenarios without that labor force are - we pay much higher prices for fruits and vegetables produced in the United States - or - we increase our imports of fruits and vegetables from other countries and just too bad for all the American farmers. A blend of both would be the likely outcome.

Fortunately, "The Wall" is a fantasy of a deranged mind. It will never come to be. The threat of it does weigh on the stock market and not in a good way. The bonus to construction will be brief compared to the long term costs born by the American people.

TEB-Art Photo wrote:
That is precisely the thing imbeciles in our present Government (not mentioning names) fail to comprehend.

Nobody's talking about banning immigration, or any such thing. What's being planned is actually stopping kicking the issue down the road from one administration to the next, and actually running the border like everyone else... we allow in the people who are here for a valid reason... such as work.

The issue has gotten so politicized over the past few decades, no one looks at the simple basics of it all. Our country of 330 million (about half of which work and produce) can't afford to absorb an unlimited of the world's poor (numbering in the billions).

No one says we're going to stop taking as many as we can use... we're just going to start being a little selective... like any sane country does currently.

Lightcraft Studio wrote:

Nobody's talking about banning immigration, or any such thing. What's being planned is actually stopping kicking the issue down the road from one administration to the next, and actually running the border like everyone else... we allow in the people who are here for a valid reason... such as work.

The issue has gotten so politicized over the past few decades, no one looks at the simple basics of it all. Our country of 330 million (about half of which work and produce) can't afford to absorb an unlimited of the world's poor (numbering in the billions).

No one says we're going to stop taking as many as we can use... we're just going to start being a little selective... like any sane country does currently.

There's an optimal quantity and "mix of skills" for immigrants and I believe people tend to polarize the issue. I argue the current risk is to limit immigration too severely. Also, the Dreamer issue must be resolved; you grew up here, you should not be deported to some place foreign to you.

Shadow Dancer wrote:
The even bigger question is - Who will harvest the crops?

And hotel/motel maids, restaurant busboys and dishwashers, construction, etc.

I was talking with the contractor who did a tear down and built a new house on the lot next to me.  He was a republican and complained about immigrants.  When I commented that he had Hispanics as part of his crew, he had a slight change of heart since the Hispanics were paid in cash and worked for a lot less then his white workers.  The contractor for the cement work made the same comments. 

I correspond with friends in Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain.  And all, except for the guys in Italy, ask what has happened to Americans.  They have their own issues with a slow economic growth and immigrants from Africa and the Middle East.  And nationalism with Brexit, far right government in Austria, Merkel not seeking reelection as Chancellor, Spain the Catalonia, and more.  They looked to the U.S. for common sense and stability.  No more.

Garry k wrote:
Personally I dont see the loss of immigration as hurting the American economy that much

given that they are predicting that within the next couple of decades upwards of half of exixting jobs will be lost to automation


However I live in a country ( Canada ) that is still relatively unpoplulated for its size ( and resources ) and would benifit from an increased population ( at least in the near term )

There is truth in this although harvesting grapes and stone fruits will be a major challenge not just for AI but also keeping all the moving parts working in dusty conditions.
It does lead to looking forward in terms of the Market, which is why I recommended taking a look at NVDA. They are leaders in AI, are doing lab tests with robots that learn by watching humans work.

Would also be wise to keep an eye on 3d printing. The initial excitement was too early and fizzled badly but it is not going away.

Ugh, 3d printed peaches? No pits, no fuzz. You order online, they print it and a robot delivers it to you. The question becomes how do you earn money to pay for it (or a place to live for that matter!!!)???

Shadow Dancer wrote:

The even bigger question is - Who will harvest the crops?
Fortunately, "The Wall" is a fantasy of a deranged mind. It will never come to be. The threat of it does weigh on the stock market and not in a good way. The bonus to construction will be brief compared to the long term costs born by the American people.

How does the question of a wall (or threat of a wall) weigh on the stock market? Deranged minds want to know.

rxz wrote:
And hotel/motel maids, restaurant busboys and dishwashers, construction, etc.

I was talking with the contractor who did a tear down and built a new house on the lot next to me.  He was a republican and complained about immigrants.  When I commented that he had Hispanics as part of his crew, he had a slight change of heart since the Hispanics were paid in cash and worked for a lot less then his white workers.  The contractor for the cement work made the same comments. 

I correspond with friends in Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, and Spain.  And all, except for the guys in Italy, ask what has happened to Americans.  They have their own issues with a slow economic growth and immigrants from Africa and the Middle East.  And nationalism with Brexit, far right government in Austria, Merkel not seeking reelection as Chancellor, Spain the Catalonia, and more.  They looked to the U.S. for common sense and stability.  No more.

https://youtu.be/MdAyn89hFIo

https://youtu.be/jFv_v16Orqw

Donald Trump in 1995 (he looked a lot like Bill Clinton): https://youtu.be/mE7kT44NtsQ

Bernie: https://youtu.be/X5PRgmRVcKY

Funny how politics plays into all this. Fortunately we now have a non-politician in office looking to achieve actual results rather than just keeping things unsolved so they can be reused in the next campaign.

What Fun Productions wrote:

How does the question of a wall (or threat of a wall) weigh on the stock market? Deranged minds want to know.

It doesn't, unless you invest in companies getting big contracts for border related projects.

What Fun Productions wrote:

How does the question of a wall (or threat of a wall) weigh on the stock market? Deranged minds want to know.

Here, let me help you. Perhaps in your derangement you "unintentionally" left out the answer to your question, which was directly in between the two parts you somehow failed to delete. As a Californian, you already know the answer anyway, unless you are hiding from civilization.

Or perhaps planning a career as a migrant farm worker, harvesting crops. It will take hundreds of thousands of you!

"For well over 60 years, migrant farmworkers have come north from Mexico and worked their way (just for example) up from Southern California all the way to Washington state harvesting crops as they ripen and mature. Many of them prune trees and tie grape vines on the trip back south. Then they take their meager earnings back down to Mexico for the winter and wait for the next season.
The two scenarios without that labor force are - we pay much higher prices for fruits and vegetables produced in the United States - or - we increase our imports of fruits and vegetables from other countries and just too bad for all the American farmers. A blend of both would be the likely outcome."

Nice try though.

Shadow Dancer wrote:
Here, let me help you. Perhaps in your derangement you "unintentionally" left out the answer to your question, which was directly in between the two parts you somehow failed to delete. As a Californian, you already know the answer anyway, unless you are hiding from civilization.

Or perhaps planning a career as a migrant farm worker, harvesting crops. It will take hundreds of thousands of you!

"For well over 60 years, migrant farmworkers have come north from Mexico and worked their way (just for example) up from Southern California all the way to Washington state harvesting crops as they ripen and mature. Many of them prune trees and tie grape vines on the trip back south. Then they take their meager earnings back down to Mexico for the winter and wait for the next season.
The two scenarios without that labor force are - we pay much higher prices for fruits and vegetables produced in the United States - or - we increase our imports of fruits and vegetables from other countries and just too bad for all the American farmers. A blend of both would be the likely outcome."

Nice try though.

So, the labor needs of a handful of farmers in California are weighing on the stock market. Got it, thanks.

I thought you were going to say that it was the Republican backed business groups that love the illegal immigrant because they help keep wages low. A wall might affect their earnings and thus the stock market. But obviously I was wrong, it is the farmers in California and the price of almonds or something.

Lightcraft Studio wrote:

It doesn't, unless you invest in companies getting big contracts for border related projects.

Food costs are low in part because labor costs to harvest food are low.

Perhaps Immigration can qualify enough workers to harvest crops before the crops need harvesting, perhaps not.
Not all of the workers will be literate, that's a new challenge. None of this has been tried before, will there be enough manpower to get the forms all filled out and processed? We don't know. It's likely the trial run will be "interesting".
If they are working here legally they will have to be paid legal wages, this has not been the case up until now. If Immigration needs to hire more workers the Federal budget will need adjusted and the ballooning defecit will increase accordingly.

Margins on food are generally so low that it will be impossible to absorb the additional labor costs, these costs will need to be passed along to the end user. Fine.

Food is not optional. If your budget for food rises you may have fewer discretionary dollars for other items. Clothing, phone services, etc.. Best Buy, Apple, Verizon, Netflix, Amazon - I could go on ad infinitum - companies who sell discretionary non-food items and services will have fewer sales. Profits will decline. Stocks for the affected brands will go down.

It's not a doomsday scenario by any means but it will affect the stock market in a variety of ways that we have not figured out yet.

Shadow Dancer wrote:
It does lead to looking forward in terms of the Market, which is why I recommended taking a look at NVDA. They are leaders in AI, are doing lab tests with robots that learn by watching humans work

Perhaps - However NVDA was one of the hardest hit Tech Stocks in the recent correction