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Pandemic Warnings
From the AP column "What DIdn't Happen This Week." CLAIM: A Stanford University study published on the National Institutes of Health website proves face masks are absolutely worthless against COVID-19. THE FACTS: Websites and social media users ranging from political candidates to health influencers are falsely claiming a study published on a digital research repository came from Stanford University and proves face masks are ineffective. In reality, the study is not affiliated with Stanford, nor is the author. The study is based on debunked claims about face masks, including the false notion that wearing a face covering decreases oxygen levels and increases carbon dioxide levels. The story was shared widely on Facebook and Twitter this week, including by Josh Mandel, a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in Ohio. The study, titled “Face masks in the COVID-19 era: A health hypothesis,” makes a variety of claims about negative health impacts of masks, including the false claim that wearing a face mask restricts breathing, leading to the conditions hypoxemia and hypercapnia. the journal “Medical Hypotheses,” which writes that its purpose is to “publish interesting theoretical papers.” Articles submitted to the journal are not meant to prove findings using primary data, but instead to advance hypotheses. The journal has a “long history of publishing fringe science and hypotheses,” according to David Gorski, a surgical oncologist who blogs about medical misinformation. The study’s author, Baruch Vainshelboim, is listed in the study as being affiliated with the cardiology division at the Veterans Affairs Palo Alto Health Care System/Stanford University. However, a representative for the VA Palo Alto Health Care System told the AP in an email that Vainshelboim does not work there. In fact, a recent study added strong evidence that statewide mask mandates slow the spread of the coronavirus. Research shows masks block virus particles from spreading from infected people who wear them, and can even provide some protection to uninfected people who wear them. https://apnews.com/article/ap-fact-chec … fb36afe8bf Apr 25 21 03:49 pm Link Anti-vaxxers are evil. Here’s proof: https://www.local10.com/news/local/2021 … -who-does/ A private K-3rd grade school in Miami, Florida has notified its teaching staff that if you’re vaccinated or going to get a Covid vaccination, they will be terminated. Why??? Because the head of the school says that somehow, some way, a vaccinated person by proximity to an unvaccinated person will contaminate the unvaccinated with the Covid vaccine. And the anti-vaxxer schoolhead believes that since vaccines are evil and pernicious to health, they’ll rub off on people nearby and cause death and destruction. Brilliant logic! Surprise Surprise: The head of the school is an obnoxious Trump supporter and Covid denier. This school should be shut down immediately for the good of public health. Apr 27 21 06:29 am Link Baanthai wrote: I nearly gagged when I read this story this morning. The absolute, amazing, stunning IGNORANCE it takes to come up with a "policy" like this is appalling . Apr 27 21 03:09 pm Link Vaccine News: Covid Breakthrough Infections A “breakthrough infection” is where a fully vaccinated person becomes infected with Covid. The CDC has released their numbers of these breakthroughs: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/h … cases.html Here’s the numbers per the CDC: Total fully vaxxed: 95,000,000 Total Breakthroughs: 9254 Total Hospitalizations: 594 Total Deaths: 112 Now let’s crunch the numbers and see the vaccine efficacy rates: 1. Breakthroughs: 9254/95,000,000 = .00009 or an efficacy of 99.991% 2. Hospitalizations: 594/95,000,000 = .000006 or an efficacy of 99.9994% 3. Deaths: 112/95,000,000 = .000001 or an efficacy of 99.9999% I’ve seen these breakthrough infections listed at slightly different numbers in different articles, but the jaw-dropping efficacy rates remain mostly unchanged. Are our vaccines this effective? Or are we missing breakthrough infections? (We’d have to be missing hundreds of thousands of cases to get vaccine efficacy down to what it was in Phase 3 trials.) P.S. I’m fully vaxxed. I stopped wearing a mask outside a couple of days ago. I’m going out for dinner at an indoor restaurant (Mortons. I’m desperate for a martini and steak) next week. May 02 21 06:56 am Link Baanthai wrote: Keep a couple of other factors in mind: May 02 21 10:20 am Link LightDreams wrote: Actually, the CDC breakthrough Covid data has a consistency with other Covid vaccine data. The Israel Ministry of Health study (a real world study) found that Pfizer had a 98.9% efficacy against hospitalizations or death. In the Phase 3 trials for J & J, Moderna and Pfizer, all showed a 100% efficacy against hosp./death. The CDC breakthrough numbers of hosp./death are hard numbers in that if you’ve been fully vaxxed and then you’re hospitalized or die of Covid, the medical provider will know. The CDC breakthrough numbers are probably correct and the corresponding efficacies of 99.99% for hosp./death are also probably “within the ballpark” of the other studies. May 03 21 06:06 am Link Baanthai wrote: Interesting. While the numbers for hospitalization / deaths have been great, I think where the breakdown happens is on the tracking of those that get COVID-19 14 days+ after they've been fully vaccinated with either Pfizer or Moderna (both doses). I.E. Those with (what are now) much milder cases due to the vaccines. May 03 21 11:38 am Link P.S. As a UK study had a 70% rate 14 days after first Pfizer/Moderna shot (compared to 80% in the above CDC study), one of the open questions is related to how strongly embedded the new variants are between the two countries. However there are some questions about the approach that the UK study used. But they definitely were heavily dealing with the new variants. So the number of those who are fully vaccinated with Pfizer/Moderna that don't get COVID-19, (with the new variants but including very mild and asymptomatic cases), is probably in the 80% to 90% range (still excellent!). Hopefully closer to the 90% end. But there are a large number of other "real world" studies that are expected to report shortly, so we should get a much better picture before too long. May 03 21 12:00 pm Link Vaccine Tourism??? In Thailand, tour operators are organizing "tours" to the U.S. to get vaccinated. Many places in the U.S. will now vaccinate anyone who shows up. Many Thai citizens are just flying over here on their own to get vaccinated. My wife knows a Thai woman who flew here yesterday, cleared customs and immediately went to Walgreen's and got vaccinated. A little background info: Vaccinations are going very slowly in Thailand. They've only vaccinated about 1 million of a population of 70,000,000. Thailand has very little vaccine. They can manufacture small amounts of AstraZenega. Other than that they have Sino-vac which nobody wants to take. Thais want the American vaccines of Moderna, Pfizer and J & J. I can't blame them. Added to this is a spike in Covid in Thailand (between 1-2,000 cases/day) which has everyone frightened. My only issue with vaccine tourism is that the tourist should pay for the vaccine. We're swimming in vaccines now. Tourists who come here for a vaccine have to stay at our hotels, eat at our restaurants, shop at our stores, go to Disneyland, etc. It's great for our economy and lots of businesses need the money. Besides, let's face reality: The US and Europe will pretty much foot the bill for vaccinating the world. May 04 21 11:42 am Link In the US, someone will surely take money for the vaccine if you're willing to pay. Healthcare for profit is sooooo much better than healthcare delivered to actually benefit society, amiright? Availability is changing rapidly - My son lives in a state that voted for Trump and, due to the general conservative "head in the sand, deny scientifically proven fact, masks are for commies" thought process rampant in that region, he was eligible and able to get vaccinated over a month ago. Here in California, availability was very scarce a few weeks ago in the coastal counties, but I was able to go to the Central Valley and find it about a month ago. As of yesterday, I am "Two shots+Two Weeks" and am rapidly defining the "New normalcy" here at the studio. Which is awesome! May 04 21 07:43 pm Link Baanthai wrote: At this point, I dont see too much of an issue with "vaccine tourism" ____IF____ certain public health protocols are established and enforced. May 04 21 10:32 pm Link Based on some of the news reports, it appears that not only will Florida lose most of its cruise ship industry, but citizens of Florida may have problems (unlike other U.S. citizens) visiting Europe, etc, this summer. Why? Well "Florida Governor Ron DeSantis signed an executive last month banning the use of Covid-19 passports in the state. The order prohibited any government entity from issuing vaccine passports..." Note that currently, for cruise lines to be allowed to operate, the requirement is that "at least 98% of crew members and 95% of passengers have been vaccinated". And that requires documentation. Which is now barred in Florida. So the Cruise ship lines have a choice. Stay shut down or simply "move the boats" / leave Florida, and run "vaccinated cruises". In a similar vein, the EU plans to open up Europe this summer to Canadians and Americans who have been vaccinated. But anyone from Florida, vaccinated or not, will not be able to get any official Gov't documentation that they have been vaccinated. It's not like everyone could see this coming. Well, okay, there are a few Governors out there that have repeatedly been accused (during the course of the pandemic), of not exactly being the sharpest tools in the shed. At least when it comes to their track records of protecting their citizens during the pandemic. P.S. It is believed that Ron DeSantis also has his eye on running for President, as a Republican. May 07 21 06:23 am Link Florida is, as of this morning, in the worst 7 U.S. States for having the highest current daily per capita of COVID cases (NY Times tracker). California is currently number one in the U.S., having the best / lowest current rate (the same NY Times tracker). As this "split" between the vaccine rates grows between different parts of the U.S., are we eventually going to see travel "boundary" zones develop? I would remind everyone that early last year, Florida set up roadblocks on Interstate 95 and Interstate 10 (as well as at their airports) to intercept people traveling from New York down to Florida. And there are other examples where States have previously attempted to either block, or quarantine, those from other States. Keep in mind that areas where a larger portion of the population are generally opposed to the vaccines, will be dealing with the much stronger new variants and the increased likelihood of even more dangerous variants developing as a result. And with the vaccines, I expect to see a much bigger and more dramatic "divide" happening in terms of COVID's impact around the country. So... 1) Will we end up basically splitting the U.S. in two, based on the various individual state's COVID rate, as the vaccine uptake disparity grows and grows??? 2) And will those who DO get vaccinated in pandemic States (that bar any form of Gov't vaccination documentation), also get "stuck" as a result? May 07 21 06:47 am Link LightDreams wrote: I would LOVE to see the cruise lines skip Florida as a result of DeSanits' ignorance. I would LOVE to see the EU restrict travel from states like Florida who wont provide govt documentation of vaccination status. May 07 21 08:13 am Link New York plans on "fully reopening" either later this month, or by July 1st (depending on who's talking). It's interesting to note what "full reopening" ACTUALLY means. I'd suggest that it's a pretty good hint of the type of "carrot and stick" approach that we will likely all see a lot more of... "Large indoor venues must require attendees to provide proof of vaccination or a negative Covid-19 test" "Smaller businesses can sidestep social distancing regulations by also requiring verification" "New Yorkers can get free baseball tickets to a Yankees or Mets game if they get vaccinated at one of the teams’ baseball stadiums. New Yorkers can also get free admission to the Museum of Natural History if they get vaccinated inside the museum." Note that there's also an idea being floated for free "one shot" Johnson & Johnson vaccinations for tourists visiting major tourist spots. Although that idea is more problematic (and may not proceed) considering that it takes about 2+ weeks for the benefits of a vaccine to kick in. May 07 21 05:19 pm Link Of the different approaches to provide better vaccine documentation or "passports" that are being tossed around, one approach seems to be gaining more steam than the rest... Under some of the more common proposals, each person who has been already vaccinated would be sent their own QR Scan Code that they could either print out (if it's emailed, rather than mailed), or keep it on their smartphone. It would have a custom unlock code for that particular user and would visibly link to an official website database, accessed by their own unique user key. That would allow the website (when the QR Code is scanned) to to display the person's name (allowing for ID verification to match it up to the person using that code) and display their current vaccination status. About the only idea that's generally being rejected (as things go forward), is to rely on using the basic printed cards, or forms, as "proof". Those printed cards are, obviously, just too easy to fake or copy, etc. And they just aren't going to fly when it comes to crossing borders, or possibly, boarding a plane, attending concerts or large sporting events, etc. Whether they'll also be used to get into something small but higher risk, like a nightclub, etc, will probably vary depending on the local rules, the state of the pandemic locally, and/or the approach taken by the specific venue. Once again, those in States where such systems are blocked, are going to have more and more problems, should they want to venture beyond their borders. Everyone else is likely to assume that they're unvaccinated and treat them as such. Hopefully some of those states will eventually allow exceptions for those citizens that choose to ask for some form of recognized vaccine documentation. But we'll see. May 07 21 05:34 pm Link rfordphotos wrote: A close friend is sitting in a hotel room in Singapore at this very moment. She arrived and was bused to a hotel where she was required to isolated for 14 days and have a negative covid test which would be taken on day 13. On day 10, she got word that the ministry of health has increased the quarantine period to 21 days. 21 days in a hotel room at her expense (She is very disappointed in the food quality). No direct contact with anyone. Food is left outside her door. The Ministry of Health people call her, requiring her to turn on her video on her phone to prove she is in the room. Serious consequences if she isn't in the room. May 07 21 07:35 pm Link LightDreams wrote: That’s exactly the system we have in Los Angeles County. L.A. County Dept. of Public Health partnered with Healthvana to provide anyone vaccinated in L.A. County with a digital vaccine passport. May 08 21 06:49 am Link I get my second shot on the 18th. As I told everyone else regarding the Pfizer Mrna covid vaccine, if I grow another arm, I can only hope it will be useful. If I grow a 3rd butt cheek, I suppose I'll need to get a custom made toilet seat.  I am well aware that this has nothing to do with the Mrna...May 08 21 02:46 pm Link Dr. Ashiesh K. Jha is a respected infectious disease expert who appears across many tv networks daily. He’s also Indian-American and understands the cultural dynamics of India. He tweeted the following this morning: “India reports another 400,000+ cases, 4000+ death day A sustained level of horribleness And its not correct True number surely closer to 25,000 deaths, 2-5 million infections today Lots of ways to estimate but here's a simple one Look at the crematoriums Thread “During non-pandemic year 2019 About 27,000 Indians died on typical day Crematoriums handle that level of deaths every day Additional 4,000 deaths won't knock them off their feet Crematoriums across the country reporting 2-4X normal business “So best estimate 55K to 80K people dying daily in India If you assume baseline deaths of 25-30K COVID likely causing additional 25K to 50K deaths daily Not 4,000” Worldwide, including the US, Covid deaths have been dramatically undercounted. My words. Not Dr. Jha’s. But thank you Dr. Jha for your honesty. May 09 21 06:40 am Link Baanthai wrote: That's an astonishing, and truly horrible, figure... May 09 21 11:09 am Link The numbers above are appalling. Below is a bit of "explanation" about why there is such a difference in the numbers.... As of ~11am Eastern time today, Johns Hopkins is reporting 581,679 deaths in the US. That number is from the same data sources I have reported since I began putting these numbers up here, so it is in line with what we have been seeing. A ghastly number. But the epidemiologists use a different way to "estimate" the impact of these pandemics. They look at a range of years, and establish an "expected" death number. That number is kind of (but not really) an average of the "normal" deaths we see in any given year. It includes heart attacks, and car wrecks and cancer and drownings. Pretty much the number of people who die of whatever cause per year. In years like we just had, with a "pandemic" they then look at the number of deaths ABOVE the "expected deaths". The number ABOVE what would be considered "normal". Those are called "excess deaths". Thru this whole thing we have run into "another" problem with reporting Covid 19 deaths.... politics. If you remember there was a Florida woman fired because she wouldnt "report" the numbers Gov. DeSantis wanted her to report. I am sure that happened many times, ALL over the world. No one believes the deaths reported in Russia, or Mexico----- or as mentioned above in India. But- with a full year of data, the epidemiologists have "real" numbers to work with. They can calculate the "excess deaths"--- the number ABOVE the "expected deaths". Those "excess deaths" are predominantly caused bu Covid 19. Either directly or indirectly. An example of the differences: in the US on April 30. the US REPORTED 572,321 deaths. The total, including "excess deaths" were estimated to be 902,577. In India: April 30, 210,351 deaths were reported, The total, including "excess deaths" were estimated to be 621,584. In Mexico: April 30, 217,229 deaths were reported, The total, including "excess deaths" were estimated to be 615,844. *************** data from: ---- https://covid19.healthdata.org/global?v … ;tab=trend *************** As time passes, as the politics fade in the face of facts, the numbers will get MUCH worse. I can only imagine what the toll will be in Africa, South America, Central America, with the already shattered economies, and the even worse health care "systems". ... it just turns my stomach to even imagine the real impact this disease is having. Remember--- Rush said it was "just a cold". Hannity agreed. While we dont have to listen to Rush any more, Hannity's audience just continues to expand. May 09 21 12:53 pm Link rfordphotos wrote: For sure! Cuomo in NY is another prime example. May 09 21 11:11 pm Link More Vaccine News The Cleveland Clinic has just released a study of Covid vaccine protection against hospitalizations. The results are astounding: From a total of 4300 patients hospitalized for Covid at Cleveland Clinic hospitals, from Jan. 1st-April 13th, 99.75% of the patients had not been fully vaccinated. Only .25% of hospitalized Covid patients had been fully vaxxed. I’ll say it again: The American Covid vaccines are increadibly powerful. 99.75% efficacy at preventing hospitalization!!! https://www.beaconjournal.com/story/new … 025596001/ **************** Orange County (a well-off county just south of L.A. County) held a Supervisors Meeting on Tuesday to discuss how they would implement digital proof of vaccination. Guess who showed up...the anti-vaxxers. Yep, they howled and screamed that fascism was afoot and demanded the County not issue anyone proof of vaccination. The meeting was cut short and ended. Let me get this straight: People (the anti-vaxxers) who have no intention of getting vaccinated do not want people who are vaccinated to have a simple, scannable proof of vaccination. Talk about NOT minding your own business. Most international travel will require a scannable, verifiable digital proof of vaccination. The world doesn’t care what anti-vaxxer nuts think. May 13 21 06:47 am Link With shots at schools, parks and even the beach, the U.S. races to vaccinate children. ---- https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/05/13 … e-children The world’s first mass coronavirus inoculation campaign for children kicked off in earnest in the United States on Thursday after the federal government recommended making the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine available to those aged 12 to 15. [...] The various authorities were making plans to offer vaccines not only in schools, but also at pediatricians’ offices, day camps, parks and even beaches. [...] Some states, including Delaware, Georgia and Maine, had already started to offer doses to children after the authorization of the vaccine by the Food and Drug Administration on Monday. But the ruling by the C.D.C. was the final step in the federal process that allows for widespread inoculations of the roughly 17 million children in the United States ages 12-15. For many parents, it could not come too soon. About one-third of eighth graders, usually 13 or 14 years old, are still in remote learning. [...] States have differing standards on what could be used to prove parental consent. In Los Angeles, the health authorities require anyone younger than 18 to be accompanied by a parent, guardian or responsible adult and to present photo identification and verification of age, county officials said. In Maine, a parent does not need to be with the child as long as the adult provides permission over the phone or signs a form beforehand. [...] May 13 21 07:32 am Link Breaking News: The CDC has just lifted all rules for mask wearing and social distancing for vaccinated people. Vaccinated people no longer have to wear a mask inside or outdoors, and don't need to social distance indoors or outdoors. The evidence that the Covid vaccines are amazingly effective at protecting us was simply overwhelming. I stopped wearing a mask outdoors about 10 days ago. The CDC is also saying that the unvaccinated do not pose a threat to the vaccinated. The unvaccinated only pose a threat to each other. It's been a long road to here. Looks like we survived the pandemic (the vaccinated). Some unvaccinated people will contract Covid today and some will die. We survived. Tragically I worry that Jerry Nemeth didn't. I believe the last we heard from him was that his wife had died from Covid and that he had Covid. Then his forum posts stopped. Any news about him? May 13 21 12:14 pm Link Baanthai wrote: As I've also been worried about Jerry's silence, I do some occasional online checks. For what it's worth, while there were "in memoriam" notices for his wife, I have NOT found anything similar for Jerry. May 13 21 12:35 pm Link The Washington Post is running a story today (behind a paywall), based on great social media research by Graphika Research. It tracks down one of the biggest sources of very carefully orchestrated pandemic misinformation that is being deliberately fed to Americans through Social Media. A rich Chinese businessman that moved from China to New York, appears to be the "American head" behind a great deal of it. He's described as the "linchpin" behind "thousands of accounts apparently working together across social media platforms in a well-coordinated effort to push selected themes in a manner that amplifies their reach". He runs "a potent platform for disinformation in the United States, attacking the safety of coronavirus vaccines, promoting false election-fraud claims and spreading baseless QAnon conspiracies". The messaging "calls vaccines against the coronavirus 'fake' and 'poison'". Other common messaging themes include "Don’t trust the vaccine" and "the medical industry is completely controlled by a special interest". in the past this network has also tried to push Americans into taking hydroxychloroquin to prevent COVID-19. And, in a curious side note, it turns out that Steve Bannon is officially listed on his payroll, with a salary listed at $1 Million per year. How involved he is (or isn't) with this massive organized social media COVID disinformation campaign that targets Americans, isn't known. May 17 21 05:31 pm Link LightDreams wrote: It may not be "known" ---- but lets say those that arent in a coma know very well how "involved" Bannon is. May 18 21 01:09 am Link Breaking News The Wall Street Journal is reporting that 3 workers from the Wuhan Virology Lab had to be hospitalized in Dec. 2019. Stay tuned. May 23 21 01:36 pm Link Baanthai wrote: I was also struck by Dr. Fauci's fairly dramatic change of tone on the topic... May 24 21 11:32 am Link Of course I have no idea where or how the virus developed- waaaay over my pay grade. I am very suspicious of "sources" --- truth seems a rare commodity these days. Ask Marjory Taylor Greene and she will tell you she has PROOF it was a plot by China---- but then she also swears the California wildfires were started by lasers from space. QAnon, TrumpubliQans----not known for any connection to truth. I have a great deal of respect for Dr. Fauci---but he is a scientist- his "position" is likely to stay "fluid" until ALL the data is in-- there can be no definitive answers without all the data. No surprise he "wants more data". China is bloody unlikely to share that data. So---it isnt coming as a surprise to me that the "world" is "blaming" China. Them and us. Their side and our side. Good guys and bad guys. Feed the polarization, the divisions. I SERIOUSLY doubt if ANY of us- the regular folks-- will EVER know with any certainty where or how the virus developed. Personally, I dont find it very hard to believe that China was trying to weaponize a virus... they certainly wouldnt be the first. But I find it equally likely that while studying a bat virus, an inept lab tech screwed up and it got out. But--- most importantly, what does it matter? Are we gonna bomb China over it? I hope not. Economic sanctions---or I should say MORE economic sanctions--- whoop de dooo, business as usual. Sternly lecture them in the UN? more whoop de doo. China and her allies dont give a rats ass what the west says or does about the virus. What could we possibly do? The folks who consider China "enemies" will still consider China to be "the enemy"-- and the ones who think of China as "friends" will continue to think of them as allies. So why get all lathered up about where the virus came from- we will NEVER know the truth and the rest is just fanning the flames of hatred, both ways. May 24 21 02:37 pm Link as I said--- lots of politics, not much fact... -------------------------- Opinion: The right is dwelling on slanderous myths about the origins of covid-19 Opinion by Michael Gerson Columnist May 24, 2021 at 1:49 p.m. PDT ---- https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions … -covid-19/ The universe of MAGA politics and media regularly defies Darwin. It is an environment in which the least-fit ideas tend to thrive. Such is the case with its treatment of the origins of the coronavirus. Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has heavily implied that the National Institutes of Health collaborated with Chinese scientists to engineer a supervirus that somehow got released in Wuhan, China. And Fox News’s Tucker Carlson, as is typical, turned an implied lie into a vile slander. “More than any other single living American,” Carlson has charged, “Tony Fauci is responsible for the covid-19 pandemic.” The prosecutors of this charge have credibility problems. Paul has a history of playing down the pandemic, dismissing the importance of masks, putting his Senate colleagues at risk of deadly infection and refusing to take the coronavirus vaccine. If more Americans had followed Paul’s covid example, far fewer of them would still be breathing. Carlson, meanwhile, has set himself the task of distracting attention from President Donald Trump’s lethal bungling of the United States' initial pandemic response. In both cases, political need is the father of scurrilous blame shifting. [...] The charge? That the NIH funded “gain of function” research at China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology that genetically modified bat viruses to become more lethal and easier to transmit. The reality? In the aftermath of the SARS-CoV-1 outbreak in 2003 — which emerged from bats — the NIH funded studies to sample and investigate bat viruses in China. It would have been odd to do such work in, say, Luxembourg, given that the guilty bats originated in China. As part of these experiments, viruses were tested to determine whether various spike proteins from existing bat viruses could infect human cells. That is very different from modifying these viruses to become more transmissible or deadly (which is the formal definition of “gain of function” research). Fine points are generally lost on committed fabulists. But this distinction is not fine. There is a large scientific and ethical distinction between genetic techniques that test the properties of pieces of viruses such as the spike protein that occur in nature, and modifying viruses to become more transmissible or virulent in humans. And we know from laboratory analysis that none of the coronavirus work done under NIH funding corresponds to the novel coronavirus as it actually emerged. [...] This does not mean that the origins of the coronavirus are clear. It appears that the closest related viruses to SARS-CoV2 are found hundreds of miles away from Wuhan, where the outbreak first took hold. Most likely, this was a natural event, caused by a leap of the coronavirus from an animal species to humans. But there is still no clear evidence of how or where that happened. So the possibility can’t be excluded that this virus was under study at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (possibly carried in cell culture or in the animal where it evolved) and was accidentally released — perhaps by an infected lab tech. (The more diabolical conspiracy theory that the Chinese built the virus from scratch is much less likely, given that the pathogen shows no signs of tampering and used a method of binding to the human cell that was not predicted by previous research.) All this uncertainty has led to broad discontent with China’s compulsive secrecy. The first examination of these issues by the World Health Organization did not inspire much confidence, and was criticized by the United States, the European Union, a global chorus of scientists and the director general of the WHO itself. The NIH has strongly supported mounting a second WHO investigation, to be given unimpeded access to all materials needed to assess what happened in Wuhan in late 2019. But this kind of necessary reckoning becomes considerably less likely if the U.S. political system remains focused on absurd partisan charges against American public health leaders. The manias and vendettas of Paul, Carlson and the populist right are helping shield Chinese authorities from scrutiny. Every vile, unjustified charge against an American official delays the next stage of Chinese accountability. Every moment in which American politics is occupied with MAGA myths about covid-19 is a Chinese victory. May 24 21 02:53 pm Link LightDreams wrote: What is sooooo frustrating is that the allegation that a few workers at the Institute of Virology who are alleged to have contracted an illness around November, 2019 is sooooo easy to investigate. The Institute would have the names of anyone who became ill. You could speak to them to confirm hospitalization, symptoms, etc. You could then get the hospital records to verify what happened. And then you could test the employees for Covid antibodies if by chance they hadn't been vaccinated. May 24 21 04:36 pm Link We now have some transparency as to where the intelligence communities currently stand, as far as the COVID origins question. Source: CNN There are two competing theories, that "it emerged naturally from human contact with infected animals or it was a laboratory accident." Biden has issued this clarification. "As of today, the U.S. Intelligence Community has 'coalesced around two likely scenarios' but has not reached a definitive conclusion on this question. Here is their current position: 'while two elements in the IC leans toward the former scenario and one leans more toward the latter -- each with low or moderate confidence -- the majority of elements do not believe there is sufficient information to assess one to be more likely than the other,' " So, as a result... "President Joe Biden said Wednesday he has directed the US intelligence community to redouble their efforts in investigating the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic and report back to him in 90 days." https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/26/politics … index.html --- As a side note (as has been previously pointed out), things may not really be any different in 90 days. It may never be known. About the only thing that seems to be agreed on is that it likely wasn't a deliberate act. On a personal note, I find it refreshing to be given (at least as it appears to me) the "straight goods", however messy that information may be. May 26 21 01:26 pm Link LightDreams wrote: I still have doubts about the "lab leak" theory. I read the WHO's report on the origins of Covid released in April. Here's a critical passage about the lab leak theory: rfordphotos wrote: Let me take a quick stab at that. The "lab leak" theory, if true, would let me sleep better at night. The lab leak simply means that humans screwed up again and we need to do a better job. Lab leaks happen. May 27 21 09:22 am Link Baanthai wrote: I have several friends in China and in the course of various conversations, I mention something in the vein of having a headache and my friends invariably ask me if I have been to the hospital to have it treated. They would be equally befuddled to understand that in the last 10 years (or more), I have been to a hospital twice: Once for a dog bite and a hospital visit, I felt, was unwarranted; and another time which was serious enough that they refused to let me go home for a few days- until I insisted. May 27 21 01:40 pm Link rfordphotos wrote: Baanthai wrote: Arent many diseases zoonotic in origin? I would imagine they all have been in the lab, thankfully most have not "escaped", but many many have crossed the human/animal barrier, some are quite common and quite deadly... May 27 21 03:09 pm Link The Lab leak theory is only part of the story. I'd read that initially an unknown Virus had killed several workers attempting to clear bats from a cave, a sample was then transported to the Wuhan Lab. of coarse, I've also read that the Virus was a chemical warfare weapon under development here in the United States, an Ivy league School Laboratory being mentioned, which was then stolen by Chinese agents. Who knows. On a positive note PA has lifted the majority of mask / social distancing requirements.  Woot! Jun 01 21 07:10 am Link Americans are celebrating steps toward normalcy. But the real test of Covid-19 progress is 2 weeks away, expert says By Madeline Holcombe, CNN Updated 4:23 PM ET, Wed June 2, 2021 ---- https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/02/health/u … index.html (CNN) - While Memorial Day was a milestone for a return to a sense of normalcy from the Covid-19 pandemic, it could take another two weeks to determine where the US really stands, an expert said. "In some ways, this was the first big stress test," CNN medical analyst Dr. Leana Wen said. "We have restrictions lifted en masse, people going about their normal lives. We know that in the past, after major holidays and an increase in travel, that we then had a substantial uptick in the rate of infections." The US has had a lot to celebrate when it comes to recovery from the pandemic: More than half of the US has received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine, and 12 states have reached President Joe Biden's goal of having 70% of Americans getting at least one dose by July 4. While the rate of vaccinations has slowed from a peak of 3.3 million doses to a seven-day average of about 1.1 million doses a day over the past week, an average of more than 615,000 people became fully vaccinated per day and an average of almost 523,000 additional people got a first shot each day, according to data published Wednesday by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Overall, more than 136 million people -- about 41% of the US population -- are fully vaccinated, and about 51% have received at least one dose of vaccine, according to CDC data. For the first time since March 2020, the US recorded a seven-day average of fewer than 20,000 new daily cases Tuesday. Less than 5% of the US population lives in a county considered to have high Covid-19 transmission, according to CDC data. But Wen cautioned the US will have to wait to see if the protection of a country still not fully vaccinated can overpower the risk of forgoing masks and engaging in public settings. Even if cases plateau or taper off from their current falling rate, Wen said she worries some communities will remain vulnerable. "You have parts of the country with very low vaccination rates," she said. "I really worry about the unvaccinated people in those areas spreading coronavirus to one another." Incentives and precaution loosening in the coming weeks As the country waits to see how a weekend of celebration affects new case rates, some leaders are focusing on offering vaccine incentives while others continue to drop pandemic precautions. West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice on Tuesday announced a vaccination incentive lottery with prizes that include $1 million, two full four-year scholarships to eligible students and 25 weekend getaways. "On Father's Day, we are going to make one of you a millionaire," Justice said. Meanwhile, Ohio Department of Health Director Stephanie McCloud signed an order rescinding a number of Covid-19-related health orders, including lifting a statewide mask mandate and opening up access to jail and detention facilities. In Kentucky, senior centers will be allowed to reopen at full capacity starting June 11, Gov. Andy Beshear said. "The reason that we can do that are vaccines. These things are miracles," he said in a statement. Dropping precautions could mean more cases But as important as vaccinations are, they might not be enough to safely drop precautions just yet, researchers reported Tuesday. Even with the majority of the population vaccinated, the removal of precautions could lead to an increase in virus spread, they reported in the medical journal JAMA Network Open. Mehul Patel, an assistant professor of emergency medicine at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, and colleagues used a mathematical model to simulate a coronavirus spread within the population of North Carolina. They found that infections, hospitalizations and deaths would continue to rise if pandemic precautions such as quarantine, school closures, social distancing and mask-wearing were lifted while vaccines were being rolled out. "Our study suggests that, for a population of 10.5 million, approximately 1.8 million infections and 8,000 deaths could be prevented during 11 months with more efficacious COVID-19 vaccines, higher vaccination coverage, and maintaining NPIs (non-pharmaceutical interventions), such as distancing and use of face masks," they wrote. Patel and colleagues said their findings suggest it will take a coordinated effort of maximizing vaccine coverage and practicing pandemic precautions "to reduce COVID-19 burden to a level that could safely allow a resumption of many economic, educational, and social activities." Cases also decline in children Fortunately, cases also do appear to be declining in children. The US reported the lowest number of new weekly Covid-19 cases among children since early October, with roughly 34,500 new child cases reported last week, the American Academy of Pediatrics said in a Tuesday report. As of May 27, nearly 4 million children had tested positive since the pandemic's start. Children made up between 6% and 19.6% of those who were tested for Covid-19, according to the states that reported numbers, and between 5.2%-34.6% of children tested were positive for the virus, depending on the state. "At this time, it still appears that severe illness due to COVID-19 is rare among children," the report said. "However, there is an urgent need to collect more data on longer-term impacts of the pandemic on children, including ways the virus may harm the long-term physical health of infected children, as well as its emotional and mental health effects." CNN's Rebekah Riess, Michael Nedelman, Jen Christensen, Laura Ly, Rebekah Riess, Naomi Thomas, Sahar Akbarzai, Pete Muntean, Greg Wallace and Deidre McPhillips contributed to this report. Jun 02 21 03:06 pm Link |
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