Forums > Off-Topic Discussion > Pandemic Warnings

Artist/Painter

Hunter GWPB

Posts: 5441

King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, US

nwprophoto wrote:
"Dr. Fauci warns of 'irreparable damage' if lockdowns are kept in place for too long"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl … -long.html

That was disingenuous.  The full headline reads:

"Dr. Fauci warns of 'irreparable damage' if lockdowns are kept in place for too long but stresses that 'very significant precautions' still need to be taken when parts of the country reopen" 

Of course, we are aware that there are consequences to our actions.  On the extremes, with or without a lock down, there are irreparable damages.  The greatest of which is dead people.  Economies eventually recover.  Dead people never recover.  The wages earned to support their family, are never made up for.  The guidance that they give their kids, the love and affection, the presence for milestones, are never going to be there.

The main reason that the lock down is limited in success is because of our system.  People who do not want to get on board, don't.  And other people suffer the consequences of the actions of those people.  Our economic system doesn't encourage the lock downs.  The money lenders, the rent collectors demand payment  without regard for the situation that everyone else in the country may be experiencing.  The totally inept effort to provide for payroll protection did nothing to help businesses with expenses, if that business  has small payroll obligations. And the PPP was abused by businesses that had the resources to cover their expenses with other means and the resources to make large applications quickly.  The rich got richer and the poor got poorer, and now, with a change in party leadership on the horizon in the White House, the one side is deliberately working to sabotage the recovery (as they did in 2008 &c), hoping that the voter ire will migrate to the new resolute desk occupant.

May 23 20 06:17 am Link

Photographer

LightDreams

Posts: 1591

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

From the Washington Post (today)

"Study says 24 states may still have uncontrolled spread"

"Researchers at Imperial College London found that the coronavirus may still be spreading at epidemic rates in parts of the United States, particularly the South and Midwest, highlighting the risk of a second wave of infections in places that reopen without sufficient precautions."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/s … story.html

May 23 20 06:32 am Link

Photographer

nwprophoto

Posts: 14473

Tonasket, Washington, US

rfordphotos wrote:
An interesting point of view.

I dont believe science and facts support this point of view.

Just throwing some stuff out there.
My only thoughts are the experts have a long ways to go
on the learning curve.

May 23 20 07:04 am Link

Photographer

Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9260

Bellingham, Washington, US

nwprophoto wrote:
Just throwing some stuff out there.
My only thoughts are the experts have a long ways to go
on the learning curve.

True, and many of them admit that there is much that is not known. They are working to learn more, flattening the curve buys time for all living humans, even those who beleive that Bill Gates created Covid_19 as a conspiracy to implant micro-chips in all Americans or follow those without any actual medical education promote dangerous "miracle drugs" from their bully pulpit and claim to take them themselves while refusing to have a physical or release the results if/when there is one.

I will submit that people who are most definitely NOT experts and appear to value the economy over human lives may very well get their way with things until they've successfully and dramatically reduced the population of their own followers.
This will raise the average IQ of the American people. It will make grave diggers wealthy, great trade to be in right now.

May 23 20 07:54 am Link

Photographer

Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9260

Bellingham, Washington, US

Here is a promotion of lack of data. Not something an expert would do but I guess the real numbers make somebody "look bad." Sad. Just makes it that much harder to understand or believe the numbers. People who want to dispute the numbers or "prove" false premises may find this useful but it hinders actual progress in medical advances.

November will be here soon. Currently 96,125 recorded deaths, the real numbers could be much higher and will remain hidden for now. Such tremendous "leadership", like the world has never seen before...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-admin- … 49171.html

May 23 20 09:11 am Link

Photographer

Focuspuller

Posts: 322

Los Angeles, California, US

nwprophoto wrote:
"Dr. Fauci warns of 'irreparable damage' if lockdowns are kept in place for too long"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl … -long.html

I know, right? I will never forgive the doctor who treated my five broken ribs from a bicycle accident for prescribing Vicodin FOR ONLY TWO WEEKS! Can you believe it?

May 23 20 09:49 am Link

Photographer

Focuspuller

Posts: 322

Los Angeles, California, US

nwprophoto wrote:
Just throwing some stuff out there.
My only thoughts are the experts have a long ways to go
on the learning curve.

Very true. ESPECIALLY when there are so many crackpot platforms for conspiracy theories and so many eager to spread them, competing for attention and muddying the waters and preventing clear understanding by the public that needs to act based on facts and medical science, not some politician's desperate need to be re-elected.

May 23 20 10:00 am Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

nwprophoto wrote:
"Dr. Fauci warns of 'irreparable damage' if lockdowns are kept in place for too long"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl … -long.html

My bias is obvious, and I am fully aware of it. With that understanding I have made every attempt to post the full, unedited headlines, tag lines etc etc.

The article posted here does have the partial headline you posted. But I dont for a second believe the edited headline as posted above conveys the message Dr. Fauci was sending...

The full headline as posted online:

Dr. Fauci warns of 'irreparable damage' if lockdowns are kept in place for too long but stresses that 'very significant precautions' still need to be taken when parts of the country reopen

    'I don't want people to think that any of us feel that staying locked down for a prolonged period of time is the way to go,' Dr Fauci said on Friday
    Dr. Fauci did hesitate from endorsing the full reduction of social distancing measures and stressed that states needed to take 'very significant precautions
    'In general, I think most of the country is doing it in a prudent way,' he said. 'There are obviously some situations where people might be jumping over that
    On Wednesday, Dr. Fauci cautioned using the name 'Operation Warp Speed' to prioritize the initiative to get a vaccine approved for coronavirus
   
By Matthew Wright For Dailymail.com
Published: 21:02 EDT, 22 May 2020
Updated: 03:16 EDT, 23 May 2020
-----   https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl … -long.html

[...]
While Fauci acknowledged that stringent measures needed to be taken when coronavirus cases were exploding in the U.S., certain parts could start opening up.

'Now is the time, depending upon where you are and what your situation is, to begin to seriously look at reopening the economy, reopening the country to try to get back to some degree of normal,' he continued.

Dr. Fauci did hesitate from endorsing the full reduction of social distancing measures and stressed that states needed to take 'very significant precautions.

'In general, I think most of the country is doing it in a prudent way,' he said. 'There are obviously some situations where people might be jumping over that. I just say please proceed with caution if you're going to do that.'

'There are certain things that you can do. The idea about physical separation, about wearing a mask, about not getting involved in crowds. You can still proceed to open, so long as you do those fundamental, baseline things.'
[...]



nwprophoto wrote:
Just throwing some stuff out there.
My only thoughts are the experts have a long ways to go
on the learning curve.

You are 100% correct. With out any question, there is more we DO NOT KNOW about this virus, than stuff we do know. And, sadly even the stuff we "know" isnt always factual.... Like Hydroxychloroquine...

It makes it very difficult for people to know what to believe. Trump sends one message, is immediately called out by his own Task Force members, who he then disputes further.... Meanwhile our own governors are sending a WIDE range of messages from unconcern to panic...

Talking heads from the left and right report the same news stories with completely opposite conclusions....

May 23 20 10:51 am Link

Clothing Designer

Baanthai

Posts: 776

Bangkok, Bangkok, Thailand

Shadow Dancer wrote:
I will submit that people who are most definitely NOT experts and appear to value the economy over human lives may very well get their way with things until they've successfully and dramatically reduced the population of their own followers.
This will raise the average IQ of the American people. It will make grave diggers wealthy, great trade to be in right now.

In Brazil, the era of mass graves has begun. And it should be no coincidence. Brazil's Bolsonaro is a Covid denier. He's against taking even the most basic steps (distancing and masks) to retard the spread of the virus.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49927259257_98b88afd42_o.jpg

I kid you not. Predug mass graves outside Manaus, Brazil.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49926443788_5dcbe0e812_o.jpg

Brazil is now tallying about 20,000 new cases a day, which experts say is a dramatic undercount. Brazil is estimated to reach peak infection in about two weeks.

https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49926961641_e37ec65fef_o.jpg

Brazil's daily Covid deaths have reached about 1,000 a day. Again, all experts agree that this is a vast undercount to the real death toll. Poor people packed into Rio's and Manaus's slums are getting hit the hardest. Given the complete impotence of the Bolsonaro government to defend its citizens against the virus, could "Covid Riots" and political instability come next?

May 23 20 10:58 am Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

Baanthai wrote:
In Brazil, the era of mass graves has begun. And it should be no coincidence. Brazil's Bolsonaro is a Covid denier. He's against taking even the most basic steps (distancing and masks) to retard the spread of the virus.

Just gonna say it.

Bolonaro knows exactly who is going to die as a result of his policies. The favellas, overwhelmed with poverty, (and people who dont vote for him as a rule) will suffer horribly in this. As shown above it is happening now, and all the experts say it will only get worse. The indigenous people, (who dont vote for him as a rule) are going to be decimated, as they have virtually no access to modern health care.

Bolsonaro would rather kill them than deal with the social issues they bring.

It is one way to deal with crushing poverty.

May 23 20 11:19 am Link

Artist/Painter

Hunter GWPB

Posts: 5441

King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, US

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/na … story.html
Epidemiologists contend the U.S. outbreak was driven overwhelmingly by viral strains from Europe rather than China. More than 1.8 million travelers entered the United States from Europe in February alone as that continent became the center of the pandemic. Infections reached critical mass in New York and other cities well before the White House took action, according to studies mapping the virus’s spread. The crush of travelers triggered by Trump’s announcement only added to that viral load. 
<>
White House officials noted the president was widely criticized for the move to limit travel from Europe, with many saying it was too draconian at the time. “The president took bold, early action that I think few leaders would be willing to take — and because of that he saved countless lives,” spokeswoman Alyssa Farah said.

It was obvious that the partial travel ban from Europe, like the one placed on travel from China, was too little too late.  There was no provision or organization for people returning to the states.  The government left it up to the people to fly commercial, regardless of their condition, instead of arranging isolation for passengers that could have been exposed, either in the country they were located in or by special flights to a designated area in the US.  And an apparatus should have been in place when people arrived for testing and isolation.  We were already seeing, and have continued to see, that self imposed isolation is ineffective.  Could you imagine if screening for terrorists boarding airplanes was done only when the plane landed in the US?  Trump has supplied a road map for a biological attack by terrorist.  Put sick people on planes.

The president's people, if not he himself, touted that it was a bold move to implement the partial travel ban from Europe (and China).  I say otherwise.  It is not a bold move when an action is obviously over due.  A bold move would have happened weeks before, and it would have been effective immediately, excepting only the flights already in the air. Then an organized method could be implemented to bring people home.  It would have been far cheaper to pay people's hotel bills then the trillions it costs with the half baked solutions that were implemented.

Compare the handling of the travel bans regarding coronavirus with the travel bans restricting people from muslim countries.  The later banned people already in the air, as if each and every person from those countries was an immediate and lethal threat to the United States and it was implemented as soon as the administration could put it together.  But the former, where each and every person, even citizens, could have been an immediate threat to the United States, was allowed to board and travel.

It is immaterial if a leader, any leader, is criticized for implementing an order on an emergency basis such as this.  It seems like this administration wants to use criticism against his actions as an "I told you so." Or, "I tried and look at all the crap you gave me," as an excuse.  Tough toodles.  It is the cost of being a leader to make hard and unpopular decisions and then prove they were the right decisions through the results.  This one made poor decisions, too late, while acting in a divisive and dismissive matter, and is trying to prove they were the wrong decisions because of the lack of results, thus supporting more wrong decisions, which will have consequences of their own. 

Idiotic.

May 23 20 11:24 am Link

Photographer

LightDreams

Posts: 1591

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

As has been previously reported, the CDC felt that air travelers coming from the EU would be a bigger threat than those from China (that came out as part of the CDC's "pushback" from the White House blame game / attacks).   When it was still early enough in the process, the CDC wanted to PROPERLY close the borders to BOTH.

The White House was happy to agree on China (they "sort'a" closed the border to China on Feb 2nd) but strongly disagreed in regards to the E.U.  When people were fleeing the EU outbreaks in Italy and Spain, the U.S. border control staff were instructed to only ask if they had "visited either China or Iran", when they entered the U.S.

That continued for 5 1/2 weeks while Italy fought their pandemic before the White House again "sort'a" closed the EU border on March 11th.

As we now know scientifically (due to very fine differences in the virus RNA for different outbreaks), most of the U.S. outbreak came from the EU, rather than China, with New York as the prime U.S. entry point.

Those 5 1/2 weeks turned out to be critical, especially for New York.  One thing that has been demonstrated, over and over again, is the importance of taking the right action early on.

May 23 20 12:13 pm Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

LOL--- “It just doesn’t make any sense; all of us are really baffled,”

No- actually most of are not baffled at all. the Trump administration is actively trying to rewrite history, actively trying to change the facts....

After all, Cpl. Bonespurs has a re-election campaign to run.

{edit to add: Looks like maybe the only, real, legitimate increase in Covid19 testing may have been testing Trump and his cronies daily}

C.D.C. Test Counting Error Leaves Epidemiologists ‘Really Baffled’

The Centers for Disease Control has been lumping together tests for active coronavirus with tests for recovered patients, boosting testing totals but muddying the pandemic’s course.

By Sheryl Gay Stolberg, Sheila Kaplan
and Sarah Mervosh
Published May 22, 2020
Updated May 23, 2020, 12:08 a.m. ET
----   https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/22/us/p … e=Homepage

WASHINGTON — As it tracks the coronavirus’s spread, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is combining tests that detect active infection with those that detect recovery from Covid-19 — a system that muddies the picture of the pandemic but raises the percentage of Americans tested as President Trump boasts about testing.
[...]
Stunned epidemiologists say data from antibody tests and active virus tests should never be mixed because diagnostic testing seeks to quantify the amount of active disease in the population. Serological testing can also be unreliable. And patients who have had both diagnostic and serology tests would be counted twice in the totals.

“It just doesn’t make any sense; all of us are really baffled,” said Natalie Dean, a biostatistician at the University of Florida.
[...]

May 23 20 12:48 pm Link

Photographer

LightDreams

Posts: 1591

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

North Dakota Governor's emotional plea to avoid creating battle lines over the use of face masks:

https://youtu.be/UBdpkgfJH9w

May 23 20 01:12 pm Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

United States COVID-19 Statistics
Updated May 23, 2020 @ 4:12pm EDT


Cases 1,613,476 Total
   

Deaths 96,662 Total


---   https://covidusa.net/

May 23 20 01:17 pm Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

It is important to note that even with articles like this, the verdict is CERTAINLY still out on what the correct strategy is/was to deal with this pandemic. This article represents one viewpoint, shared by many, but it is by no means definitive.

'The price you pay': Sweden's 'herd immunity' experiment backfires

By Mike Moffitt, SFGATE
Updated 6:57 pm PDT,
Friday, May 22, 2020
----  https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/ … 289437.php


Unlike its Nordic neighbors, Sweden decided early on in the pandemic to forgo lockdown in the hope of achieving broad immunity to the coronavirus. While social distancing was promoted, the government allowed bars, restaurants, salons, gyms and schools to stay open.

Initially, Sweden saw death rates from COVID-19 that were similar to other European nations that had closed down their economies. But now the Scandinavian nation’s daily death toll per 1 million people is 8.71 compared to the United States’ 4.59, according to online publication Our World in Data. Sweden's mortality rate is the highest in Europe.

"I’d say it hasn’t worked out so well," said Dr. George Rutherford, professor of epidemiology at the University of California, San Francisco. "I think the mortality in Norway is something like ten-fold lower. That’s the real comparator." (Norway's daily death rate is less than .01 per 1 million people.)

[...]

Scientists estimate herd immunity for the coronavirus is reached when 70-90% of the population becomes immune to a virus, either by becoming infected or getting a protective vaccine.

Despite its relaxed response, Sweden is nowhere near to hitting that goal. Tests on 1,118 Stockholm residents carried out by Sweden's Public Health Agency over one week in late April showed that only 7.3% had developed the antibodies needed to stave off the disease.

[...]

“I think herd immunity is a long way off, if we ever reach it,” Björn Olsen, a professor of infectious medicine at Uppsala University, told Reuters after the release of the antibody findings.

Other countries that instituted shelter-in-place measures realized antibody counts in their populations that are not that far behind Sweden’s. In Spain, for example, 5% of the population had developed antibodies as of May 14, according to a government epidemiological study.

[...]

Sweden’s government insists that it does not have a herd immunity strategy, but Swedish virolgist Lena Einhorn said that “they have denied it, but under their breaths they have acknowledged” the strategy, according to France24.

May 23 20 02:06 pm Link

Photographer

Focuspuller

Posts: 322

Los Angeles, California, US

rfordphotos wrote:
It is important to note that even with articles like this, the verdict is CERTAINLY still out on what the correct strategy is/was to deal with this pandemic.]

Well, we DO know what strategy does not work: No strategy at all.

May 23 20 03:41 pm Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

Focuspuller wrote:

Well, we DO know what strategy does not work: No strategy at all.

To be clear. I think Trump was negligent from the beginning, denying science, ignoring informed advice and  favoring his "gut instincts". His loose association with truth has proven to be even more disastrous in light of the pandemic. His ego and narcissism has in my mind cost thousands of American lives, and done immense damage to the economy.

But he did have a strategy. It revolves around getting re-elected, and shifting ANY negative impacts to ANYONE but himself.

But Trump wasnt appreciably worse than Boris Johnson, or Trump's BFF Putin. The Spanish are protesting in the streets over their leadership's response, the Italians as well. No one is happy with their govts.

We know what Jair Bolsonaro (who idolizes Trump) has done to Brasil.

How do we fix that? Leaders get to be leaders by winning popularity contests (as opposed to being most qualified).... and no leader wants to  make unpopular decisions... I think you will find it interesting to see which leaders were "brave" enough to make those unpopular decisions if you look into it.

We have somehow become a society that actually believes in "alternate facts". Someone already posted in this thread something to the effect- "you have a right to your own opinion, but you dont have a right to your own facts" and that sums up the problem really well in my eye...

May 23 20 04:11 pm Link

Artist/Painter

Hunter GWPB

Posts: 5441

King of Prussia, Pennsylvania, US

Furthermore:

Given the mistakes of not shutting down travel from Europe or China sufficiently and in enough time, the mistakes were compounded within the United States when travel was not severely restricted.  Travel restrictions by aircraft largely took care of itself due to fear, but there should have also been bans on motor vehicle travel.  This was illustrated by the flight of people from New York to second homes or family members into New England, New Jersey and south along the coast all the way to Florida.  The keys shut down access, as did some barrier islands in North Carolina.  Local people were aware and were trying to stop the spread.

I realize that we have the tremendous advantage of looking at this in hindsight.  We have seen the results and can draw conclusions, where as the people failing to make the decisions at the time that taking action was critical, had to predict the future.  However, what the heck is a federal government good for, if it isn't imaging various scenarios, testing and planning for cataclysmic events?  This isn't a question of those who would prefer safety over freedom, deserving neither.  This is a question of a common defense.  The constitution gives the federal government the responsibility of the common defense.  We all know that the possibility of bioterrorism was something that kept US defense people up at night.  This was not a bioterrorism event, but how much different would the planning have been?  I can't imagine that the defense department's action plan for a bioterrorism event had previously been to throw up their hands and tell the governors to do whatever you want, and then try to undermine those governors, especially if they represented the opposition party.

In a situation such as a national emergency, should a capable leader even consider that we are different parties (or races), as opposed to all of us being Americans?  Or that state level public servants had to be sufficiently nice to get a return phone call?

May 23 20 04:26 pm Link

Photographer

Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9260

Bellingham, Washington, US

One of the lovely results of America "getting back to work."
This is how we will see spikes and new waves of infection in areas that attempt to re-open too early and too quickly.
91 people exposed to a carrier.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hairstylist- … 26032.html

May 23 20 08:00 pm Link

Photographer

Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9260

Bellingham, Washington, US

And more on Trump's favorite drug, data indicates it is a killer rather than a cure. Since it is impossible for him to be wrong, I await reading about his pushback on Twitter.

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/trump-p … 23568.html

Different source, same article.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/drug-touted- … 04885.html

May 23 20 10:54 pm Link

Photographer

Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9260

Bellingham, Washington, US

This does not look good for the people of Alabama. I hate to see it.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/alabama-hosp … 45993.html

May 24 20 12:30 am Link

Photographer

Focuspuller

Posts: 322

Los Angeles, California, US

Shadow Dancer wrote:
This does not look good for the people of Alabama. I hate to see it.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/alabama-hosp … 45993.html

Make no mistake. When "libertarian freedom fighters" tout herd immunity as THE solution, this is exactly what they are talking about.

May 24 20 11:25 am Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

This whole thing makes my head spin.

We have to get back to work. The support from the Feds has proven to be largely ineffective... The big corporations got theirs, but the average hourly worker is still on hold at the unemployment office.

That $1200 check Trump signed is still in the mail for a large portion of the folks who need it most, and covered only a fraction of living costs for a month for most.

People are frustrated, they dont have any idea who or what to believe. Trump says we are doing fine, the experts are predicting continuing huge losses of life.

Nearly 100,000 dead isnt even close to "doing fine".

This Memorial Day weekend, we are seeing folks acting like it is all over. The virus came, and went.

Except it didnt. It is the same virus that locked us down in the first place, just as deadly, just as contagious, still no vaccine, still no really effective treatments...

When we go back to work, the death rate will rise, as surely as the sun will.

What we have to do now is learn to live with our new rude, uninvited houseguest, SARS-CoV-2.

We will NOT be returning to "normal". Give that idea a wave goodbye.

May 24 20 12:46 pm Link

Photographer

Kevin Fair

Posts: 2718

Palm Coast, Florida, US

rfordphotos wrote:
This Memorial Day weekend, we are seeing folks acting like it is all over. The virus came, and went.

Except it didnt. It is the same virus that locked us down in the first place, just as deadly, just as contagious, still no vaccine, still no really effective treatments...

When we go back to work, the death rate will rise, as surely as the sun will.

What we have to do now is learn to live with our new rude, uninvited houseguest, SARS-CoV-2.

We will NOT be returning to "normal". Give that idea a wave goodbye.

I guess thousands will be dead around the second week of June in my area?

Took this a few hours ago.

https://photos.smugmug.com/Other/n-nFfCn/POSTING-SHOTS-25/i-VZWKkVz/0/342199a6/X2/0524201227e-X2.jpg

May 24 20 01:15 pm Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

Kevin Fair wrote:
I guess thousands will be dead around the second week of June in my area?

Took this a few hours ago.

https://photos.smugmug.com/Other/n-nFfCn/POSTING-SHOTS-25/i-VZWKkVz/0/342199a6/X2/0524201227e-X2.jpg

I dont know. Neither do you.

I do know that close contact is how the virus spreads. I do know that if you increase close contact, you will increase the spread of the virus. Some percentage of the folks infected will die.

90 customers and staff were exposed to two hairstylists in one week in one shop... Multiply that by millions.

Now- if you had to guess, would you say that there would be a wave of sickness and death after this Memorial Day weekend? Knowing what we now know, what are the odds?

Everyone has the right to see it the way they want. I think it is imperative we go back to work. I think that WILL cost lives.
I PERSONALLY dont think a BBQ on the beach with my closest 50 friends is worth dying for... I dont PERSONALLY think getting that new tattoo is WORTH killing the guy I buy my groceries from.

but hey, that is just me.

May 24 20 01:29 pm Link

Photographer

LightDreams

Posts: 1591

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Kevin Fair wrote:
I guess thousands will be dead around the second week of June in my area?

Took this a few hours ago.

https://photos.smugmug.com/Other/n-nFfCn/POSTING-SHOTS-25/i-VZWKkVz/0/342199a6/X2/0524201227e-X2.jpg

Strangely enough, probably not as bad as you would think...

Don't get me wrong, I'm the last person to promote ignoring this virus.

As our BC Chief Medical Officer has been so fond of telling us, there's a BIG difference in risk when you're outdoors versus indoors.  Having the virus "reach" you, isn't enough.  It has to be strong enough or sustained long enough to improve the odds of infecting you.  That's MUCH easier to do when you're indoors.  Outside, especially if there's an ocean breeze, the airborne droplets disperse much faster, so are generally much weaker.

Her advice to us for months, has been to get outside, exercise, enjoy the sun, but keep your distance.  If you can't keep your distance then wear a mask.  However, she says, the odds are MUCH lower of contracting it outside, and that infected people that briefly pass you by (too closely) when no one is wearing a mask, is still pretty low risk.  Now someone who's infected directly coughing into your face, fairly closely, is another matter.  As is being in close proximity for a significant period of time to someone who's infected (especially dangerous indoors).

She's the one that's been incredibly cautious (quite successfully) in fighting this throughout BC, and has top notch credentials with the WHO fighting Ebola and SARs, etc.

Don't get me wrong.  I am NOT suggesting anyone ignore the risks and the good medical advice.  Anything but.  I'm just suggesting that the death rate from too many people outside on the beach, especially if most are reasonably distanced from each other, is likely not as dangerous as other types of gatherings are.   At least from what I understand of her (5 to 6 days a week) press conferences, answering questions and providing the latest COVID-19 guidance.

Also note, that I am not describing a "spring break" / bodies packed together, type of scenario, nor am I suggesting going to a beach BBQ with a large group of friends, etc.

May 24 20 01:46 pm Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

If you , like most normal folks, are having trouble imagining what 100,000 deaths looks like--- the New York Times has published an interesting graphic.

scroll thru the link below- it is sobering to say the least.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … e=Homepage

May 24 20 01:50 pm Link

Photographer

Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9260

Bellingham, Washington, US

Kevin Fair wrote:
I guess thousands will be dead around the second week of June in my area?

Took this a few hours ago.

https://photos.smugmug.com/Other/n-nFfCn/POSTING-SHOTS-25/i-VZWKkVz/0/342199a6/X2/0524201227e-X2.jpg

It is possible. It may not be recorded properly or ever known  by the public, considering this news article and all it implies.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/flori … r-BB14jG4Y

May 24 20 02:19 pm Link

Clothing Designer

Baanthai

Posts: 776

Bangkok, Bangkok, Thailand

rfordphotos wrote:
Just gonna say it.

Bolonaro knows exactly who is going to die as a result of his policies. The favellas, overwhelmed with poverty, (and people who dont vote for him as a rule) will suffer horribly in this. As shown above it is happening now, and all the experts say it will only get worse. The indigenous people, (who dont vote for him as a rule) are going to be decimated, as they have virtually no access to modern health care.

Bolsonaro would rather kill them than deal with the social issues they bring.

It is one way to deal with crushing poverty.

Trump just banned all non-US citizens from entering the USA from Brazil.

May 24 20 02:25 pm Link

Photographer

rxz

Posts: 640

Glen Ellyn, Illinois, US

Baanthai wrote:

Trump just banned all non-US citizens from entering the USA from Brazil.

US citizens can return.  Will they be tested for the virus, quarantined?  Who knows.  But don't ask immigration or US customs.  They probably won't know.

May 24 20 04:55 pm Link

Photographer

LightDreams

Posts: 1591

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Baanthai wrote:
Trump just banned all non-US citizens from entering the USA from Brazil.

I understand why they're doing it, but much of the world will still think it quite ironic.  As I'm sure you'll understand, they're all currently looking at the situation in the U.S. with deep concern...

Case in point.  Apparently Israel has also been using the COVID-19 genome sequencing to track the subtle differences in the virus that identify where in the world the virus came from.  The results?

70% of the Israeli COVID-19 infection cases involve virus strains that track back to the United States.

In comparison, 8% came from Belgium, 6% from France, 5% from England, 3% from Spain, 2% from Italy,  2% from the Philippines, 2% from Australia and 2% of the virus strains track back to Russia.

Ouch.

---
Source:  Multiple news reports, including:
https://www.timesofisrael.com/us-bigges … ing-shows/

May 24 20 05:25 pm Link

Photographer

Focuspuller

Posts: 322

Los Angeles, California, US

rxz wrote:
US citizens can return.  Will they be tested for the virus, quarantined?  Who knows.  But don't ask immigration or US customs.  They probably won't know.

Look at it this way. A trumptweet is like a raw file. Makes no sense on its own. It has to be  post processed, cropped, levels adjusted, sharpened for export, retouched and converted to complete sentences before anyone knows what he is talking about.

May 24 20 05:30 pm Link

Photographer

Focuspuller

Posts: 322

Los Angeles, California, US

Double post

May 24 20 05:30 pm Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

well, now we will see. Was it too soon or not?

These people have decided. I hope they are right.

What do you suppose the odds are that no one in that crowd has the virus?

edit to add: ok, the image wont post, working on it.... I am too tired to mess with it, follow the link if interested

https://www.washingtonpost.com/resizer/ … J3QDQU.jpg


Crowds pack venues in Missouri’s Lake of the Ozarks, ignoring social distancing

By Derek Hawkins
May 24, 2020 at 9:32 a.m. PDT
----  https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 … istancing/

Vacationers flocked to the Lake of the Ozarks over the holiday weekend, flouting social distancing guidelines as they packed into yacht clubs, outdoor bars and resort pools in the Missouri tourist hot spot.

Images of the revelry rippled across social media, showing people eating, drinking and swimming in close quarters. In one picture shared by the news station KSDK, dozens of people could be seen crammed on an outdoor patio underneath a sign reading, “Please practice social distancing.”
[...]

May 24 20 05:37 pm Link

Photographer

LightDreams

Posts: 1591

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

rfordphotos wrote:
Crowds pack venues in Missouri’s Lake of the Ozarks, ignoring social distancing

Wow, those photos truly are mind boggling...

May 24 20 05:42 pm Link

Photographer

Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9260

Bellingham, Washington, US

rfordphotos wrote:
well, now we will see. Was it too soon or not?

These people have decided. I hope they are right.

What do you suppose the odds are that no one in that crowd has the virus?

ok, the image wont post, working on it


Crowds pack venues in Missouri’s Lake of the Ozarks, ignoring social distancing

By Derek Hawkins
May 24, 2020 at 9:32 a.m. PDT
----  https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2 … istancing/

Vacationers flocked to the Lake of the Ozarks over the holiday weekend, flouting social distancing guidelines as they packed into yacht clubs, outdoor bars and resort pools in the Missouri tourist hot spot.

Images of the revelry rippled across social media, showing people eating, drinking and swimming in close quarters. In one picture shared by the news station KSDK, dozens of people could be seen crammed on an outdoor patio underneath a sign reading, “Please practice social distancing.”
[...]

I cannot stop these people from doing what they want to do.
I may not even be able to avoid them, there is no way to know if any of them were visitors from northwest WA.
I hope for their own sakes that no infections are spread from this.

I will be amazed if that is true, it seems very doubtful.
Once a week I do a laundry/shopping run where I find myself among the public. Many have masks, some have gloves. Too many have neither. Most practice social distancing.

Tonight I will go for a walk, I rarely see anybody on my route and it is easy to maintain distance. I always have a mask around my neck, ready to pop over my face. I have gloves in my pocket but I am not touching anything so I don't wear them unless I need them.

I probably would have gone insane by now but for a brisk uphill walk every other day flushing the brain and bringing in fresh endorpins.

97,626 deaths and rising quickly. Not sure how people feel safe ignoring that.

May 24 20 05:51 pm Link

Photographer

LightDreams

Posts: 1591

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

I found the video that many news organizations are using.  Assuming it's an accurate capture of what's happening there, it's fairly stunning...

https://youtu.be/UyI0xiAvU0c


[EDIT] Apparently it is accurate / from this weekend.  The person who took those video clips on his smartphone, is a local TV news anchor. [/EDIT]

May 24 20 05:57 pm Link

Photographer

Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9260

Bellingham, Washington, US

More from Sweden. Their unique approach is not working very well.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-w … yptr=yahoo

May 24 20 06:00 pm Link

Photographer

rfordphotos

Posts: 7024

Antioch, California, US

Baanthai wrote:
Trump just banned all non-US citizens from entering the USA from Brazil.

I wonder if they learned ANYTHING when Trump saved us from the nasty old virus coming from the EU.......

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/1355C/production/_111269197_andrewgarver-o'hareairport-2.jpg

Passengers arriving at Chicago O'Hare airport faced lengthy waits
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51895246
15 March 2020

May 24 20 06:07 pm Link