Forums > Off-Topic Discussion > Does anyone here own Gold?

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Click Hamilton

Posts: 36555

San Diego, California, US

I was loading my trailer today with crap to haul to the dump from a rental property. Out of one of the trash bags from tenants who moved out fell a nice looking old spoon. I looked closer  ... "sterling"

That's the way I like to buy scrap silver ..... free, without premiums. Throw it in the silver bucket.

I just happen to have a scale on my desk .... 31.34 grams. That translates to just over 1 troy oz. Sterling is .925 silver. Silver spoons are easy to sell on Ebay. They get bid up ridiculously higher than spot price. Buyers probably rationalize this higher price by considering cute old silver teaspoons to be collectors items. In reality, it's probably the silver equivalent of mild Gold Fever.


When I go to the landfill tomorrow to empty my trailer, maybe I should kick the plastic bags open as they roll off the back of my trailer to see if any more old silverware spills out. Maybe there is more of this tea set. One more spoon and it will pay for my gas and dump fees.

-----

I've often wondered how many silver coins show up for the owners of change redemption machines at grocery stores that give us vouchers for cash or credit on Amazon.com. Or silver quarters in laundromats.

For people who throw their pocket change in jars and buckets around the house over a lifetime, 1965 wasn't really that long ago.

Aug 04 15 10:58 pm Link

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SAND DIAL

Posts: 6688

Santa Monica, California, US

Sorry Mister Hamilton BUT as one who has done 'coin roll hunting', silver coins in change are few and far between.

Copper pennies, yes. Silver coins, very rare.

Aug 05 15 11:18 am Link

Photographer

SAND DIAL

Posts: 6688

Santa Monica, California, US

Blue Moon, 'Gold is only as valuable as the amount of money someone is willing to pay for it.'

Like everything else?
Something is what a seller is willing to pay for it, yes?

Aug 05 15 11:19 am Link

Artist/Painter

ethasleftthebuilding

Posts: 16685

Key West, Florida, US

Click Hamilton wrote:
I was loading my trailer today with crap to haul to the dump from a rental property. Out of one of the trash bags from tenants who moved out fell a nice looking old spoon. I looked closer  ... "sterling"

Ohh the valuable things I have found left behind at rental properties.

Aug 05 15 02:58 pm Link

Photographer

Click Hamilton

Posts: 36555

San Diego, California, US

SAND DIAL wrote:
Sorry Mister Hamilton BUT as one who has done 'coin roll hunting', silver coins in change are few and far between.

Copper pennies, yes. Silver coins, very rare.

Yes, if you are talking about buying coins from a bank to search through, I think those days are over.

I tried buying $2000 worth of bank coins in San Diego about a year ago to see if that idea still worked like it did a handful of years ago. I found a few of the lesser % silver half dollar coins, but none of the 90% coins.

If that game is to still work, we need access to stagnant old coins laying around that have not been in circulation lately.

Aug 05 15 05:08 pm Link

Photographer

Click Hamilton

Posts: 36555

San Diego, California, US

ernst tischler wrote:
Ohh the valuable things I have found left behind at rental properties.

Ha.

wink   <--- a wink of understanding

It's usually mixed with a lot of other not-so-valuable things. i.e. trash.

I usually throw things with value in big boxes and offer it to my other tenants. Or my housekeepers or yardworkers. Or neighbors. If nobody wants what's left behind, I take it to Goodwill or the dump. I keep tools and building materials for myself which is stacking too deep.

Aug 05 15 05:11 pm Link

Photographer

Click Hamilton

Posts: 36555

San Diego, California, US

For those of you who believe it's a bear market for silver (meaning from today forward), what is your prediction for the lowest prices we can expect in ... say, ... the next 15 months?

Silver is $14-something now.

Also, do you think there is some kind of a natural equilibrium or corollary price relationship between gold and silver, or do these two metals move totally independently of each other? If there is an inherent relationship, then why has the price of silver plummeted so much more than gold and how would you interpret this for guessing about the future price of silver?

For those of us who enjoy speculation and trying to guess the future, at what price should we be buying and at what price should we be selling over the next 15 months?

What about the next 3-5 years?

Does being in the Dog Days of Summer have anything to do with lethargy and inactivity of markets like this?


What say Ye?  All opinions are welcome. I seriously doubt that anything is cast in stone as right or wrong. So much about trying to predict the future is "it depends."

The price of oil plummeted pretty dramatically, even though they managed to ratchet the price of gas back up pretty quickly around here. Can't let the peasants enjoy the benefit of an oil price drop at the pump. After all, the monopolies and taxing so-called authorities that allow us to keep our cars going is one of the big ways of milking off whatever cash flow we can muster to survive.

Does a serious collapse in the price of oil affect the price of gold and silver?

From today forward, ....
What are the chances that silver will drop from $14 to $7?
What are the chances that silver will increase from $14 to $28?

Aug 08 15 12:02 pm Link

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Lohkee

Posts: 14028

Maricopa, Arizona, US

Click Hamilton wrote:
From today forward, ....
What are the chances that silver will drop from $14 to $7?
What are the chances that silver will increase from $14 to $28?

Good

Bad

Aug 08 15 01:18 pm Link

Photographer

SAND DIAL

Posts: 6688

Santa Monica, California, US

What are the chances that silver will drop from $14 to $7?

whats the cost of production on Silver? On Gold?

Aug 08 15 05:42 pm Link

Photographer

Michael Bots

Posts: 8020

Kingston, Ontario, Canada

Au, Ag   Metal mining/production costs vary a lot, from about 20% of value to over 100% of the current price depending on where it is mined and whether it is a by-product (usually of Zinc, Copper production) or a primary production mine.. I have seen a slice of rock the size of your hand that was half clear quartz and half pure silver. It came out of the ground that way and was just cleaned up for show.    Note also that China's economy has slowed and global base metals demand is down.


The Canadian mint can't get silver to make coins. Has stopped taking orders despite the demand.

Silver Shortage Escalates: RCM Halts Orders For Silver Maples, Reportedly Cites “Blank Issues”
http://investmentwatchblog.com/silver-s … nk-issues/

Aug 08 15 07:39 pm Link

Photographer

Click Hamilton

Posts: 36555

San Diego, California, US

If there is a shortage of silver for making silver maples and silver eagles due to "high demand" (assuming this is not sales hype), then why is the spot price of silver going down?

The US Mint allegedly could not fill orders for newly minted silver eagles for the same reason.

When was the US Mint making silver eagles to liquidate government stockpiles of silver? Do they have to buy silver on the open market now to make these products?

I know the premium on these two popular items has been jacked up. That much is understandable if they can't fill orders.

---

Spot price for 1 troy oz of silver is $14.79 at this particular moment.
1 troy oz silver eagles are competitively priced if we shop around at about $18.64
At around $9,295 there seems to be no advantage to buying sealed monster box quantities. 

1 troy ox silver maples are about $18.19. Monster boxes of silver maples are $200 cheaper than US silver eagles of the same weight.

That sounds like a pretty hefty commission to me as a percentage cost of buying silver.

I don't know what sacks of pre-1964 "junk silver" costs over spot. It is supposed to be amongst the cheapest ways of buying silver without finding your own ways of accumulating scrap at under spot price.

---

I don't follow this on Ebay, but when I looked out of curiosity a few months ago it seems like prices for various kinds of silver gets jacked up even higher than what we can buy it for from dealers.  Jewelery, for example, or art bars.

Is Chase Bank still building their stockpile of physical silver? The reports that were coming out in a flurry about this seem to be getting dated now. I have not heard about current Chase Bank buying activity and I don't know if their buying trend continues. Does Chase Bank have access to silver at prices below spot prices, or do they buy on the open market too?

Aug 08 15 08:38 pm Link

Photographer

Click Hamilton

Posts: 36555

San Diego, California, US

SAND DIAL wrote:
whats the cost of production on Silver? On Gold?

That's a good question.

In light of Mr. Bots answer, does that mean those sources with production costs that are high are shutting down or suspending operations because it is not profitable or do they continue operating at a short term loss to minimize a greater loss of shutting down cold? How much of the industry is at that point? When the prices are not good, do the producers stockpile silver themselves, hoping for a better day in the not too distant future?

Aug 08 15 09:02 pm Link

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SAND DIAL

Posts: 6688

Santa Monica, California, US

Perhaps a certain group will bankrupt the mines, then buy them. Distress sale.

Kevin Cahill in his book Who Owns The World ( pg 34 ) 
85% of the worlds population as it stands own nothing, 
37.5%  of the planet  is owned by 147 states of  government,
41% is owned by 1% = 70 MILLION PEOPLE.
21% is owned by just 26 people.

and

Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT,  "It would be quite interesting to see what happens to the miners if Gold were to break below $1080/oz and decline towards $1000/oz.
Given that the miners are already extremely oversold (and in their worst bear market ever), it is quite possible they begin to rebound before Gold reaches support at $1000/oz.
In addition, if this is the way Gold breaks (lower rather than higher) then it is also quite possible that the bear market ends after that decline. That would be sooner than everyone expects.
The near term remains uncertain but we could get clarity on Friday. In any case, the precious metals sector is due for a rebound. Failure to rebound in the days ahead tells us that we could ultimately see an even greater and more significant rebound from lower levels. As we navigate the end of this bear market,"

Aug 08 15 09:31 pm Link

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Michael Bots

Posts: 8020

Kingston, Ontario, Canada

Click Hamilton wrote:
That's a good question.

In light of Mr. Bots answer, does that mean those sources with production costs that are high are shutting down or suspending operations because it is not profitable or do they continue operating at a short term loss to minimize a greater loss of shutting down cold? How much of the industry is at that point? When the prices are not good, do the producers stockpile silver themselves, hoping for a better day in the not too distant future?

Hedging contracts are often used to stabilize mine prices.

Production that is a secondary product to a Copper or Zinc mine is slowing down with the shrinking demand for those base metals.
I have been told of a Canadian gold mine where a cavity was found / opened up about 20 feet deep by 3 wide and 7 high completely covered in gold - mine management boarded it up as insurance for future hard times, and work just carried on as usual with regular ore extraction.
A mine selling their production is sort of optional. It can always be left in the ground for better prices later. Mine improvements and other investments can proceed if you know the costs will be covered later.  A production cost, capital finance charges,  product sales price balancing act.

Aug 08 15 09:42 pm Link

Photographer

Click Hamilton

Posts: 36555

San Diego, California, US

For the sake of comparison to gold, oil, and other commodities, it's important to remember that the world's silver market is relatively small by comparison.

The silver industry is small enough that it can be manipulated easier by wealthy individuals, companies, governments and consortiums of investors who are trying to create a bubble to punch - one way or the other.

We always hear "silver is more volatile" than gold. I'm not sure what this means or how to give weight and scope to this statement. I guess that would depend on the length of time we are evaluating. When I look at the graphs of historical information in the long run, I can't see anything myself that indicates "cycles" per se. I tend to think more about the effect of regulated or monopolized prices pitted against markets opening up to become more influenced by relatively free markets, or individuals/companies/governments shutting this market freedom down by controlling or restricting the production, sales and distribution of gold and silver for various reasons that can range from opportunity for profit to trying to mitigate the effect of precious metals markets on the worlds leading fiat currencies.

My non-scientific and unsupported gut feeling is that silver is more of a hybrid commodity that is semi-consumable and has important industrial applications more than a far more massive amount of gold bricks stacked away somewhere as a hedge or more tangible and internationally transferable asset compared to fiat currencies that are only as sound as the countries, politics and economies that invent and support them as an arbitrary medium of exchange.

So, what does this mean?

I dunno.


We always hear simplistic and hackneyed sound bites repeated by hucksters like parrots, and by those who follow them, for all kinds of products in the world of investments. There are lots of talking heads, book writers and bloggers. What they say ripples back and forth like Doppler waves in a box. Most of what we hear is thoughtless regurgitation of what someone else says. It's hard not to be affected by this as we sit in that box of information, commentary and data, and strive to understand and predict the effect of fundamentals for ourselves based on attempts at clear logic and original thinking.

If we are sitting on a pile of gold or silver we have to manage, and have to decide, and we have to be right, is this a time to buy or sell? For the sake of argument, lets say that holding steady is not an option. It's always easier to avoid decisions than it is to make them correctly in advance. If we are wrong, then we will lose our jobs and credibility, or our life's nest-egg.

Good luck.

That's all I have to say for now.


bunny

Aug 09 15 10:38 am Link

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Michael Bots

Posts: 8020

Kingston, Ontario, Canada

The big banks are liking gold.

The 'Big Long' - Goldman Sachs And HSBC Buy 7.1 Tons Of Physical Gold
http://seekingalpha.com/article/3421396 … sical-gold

"On August 6, 2015, Goldman Sachs, which has issued very bearish forecasts on long-term gold prices, took delivery of a 3.2-ton purchase of physical gold.
On August 6, 2015, HSBC which also claims to be bearish, took delivery of a 3.9-ton purchase of physical gold.
In both cases, the purchases are registered as being for the benefit of the bank's own house account, rather than the accounts of customers."


    Advice to their customers differs ---
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldma … 2015-07-22

Aug 12 15 12:53 am Link

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SAND DIAL

Posts: 6688

Santa Monica, California, US

Guss, what is the cost of production for an ounce of gold?

Aug 12 15 07:36 am Link

Photographer

Click Hamilton

Posts: 36555

San Diego, California, US

In Suriname the price of gold is 2 grams for 20 minutes or 5 grams for an entire evening.
http://www.stabroeknews.com/2012/archiv … ld-fields/

Maybe we could set up an underground business in Paramaribo and sell trinkets to the ladies who come into town for R&R?

During the California Gold Rush, banks, bars and prostitutes made lots of money by mining the miners. Levis Strauss built his nest egg that way.

Aug 12 15 08:38 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Click Hamilton wrote:
In Suriname the price of gold is 2 grams for 20 minutes or 5 grams for an entire evening.
http://www.stabroeknews.com/2012/archiv … ld-fields/

Was?

The article is from January 2012, over 3 years ago. A lot has changed since then.

big_smile

Silver appears to be slowly coming back, care should be taken in the event it is a short, false rally. CDE dropped below $3 briefly and is now at around $3.60.

This means nothing and can turn around in a heartbeat.

Meanwhile, free spoons made of solid sterling silver are an excellent investment with a high rate of return.

Aug 12 15 08:43 am Link

Photographer

Click Hamilton

Posts: 36555

San Diego, California, US

Shadow Dancer wrote:
Was?

The article is from January 2012, over 3 years ago. A lot has changed since then.

big_smile

I don't know. Suriname is a pretty remote place. It's been on my list of places to visit for a long time. When I first started considering this, the way to get there was to fly to the country next door and take the bus. That sounds like a Humphrey Bogart style photo opportunity to me.

It's a former Dutch colony in South America lost in time, with an interesting element of Indonesian culture. The Dutch colonized Indonesia for something like 400 years, and spread this culture to their other colonies.

Time slips by and I haven't gotten there yet. I might suddenly do it one day on an impulse.

---

To address your point, the price of gold has gone down since 2012, but I don't know how that might affect the guys washing it out of the ground and pocketing a little on the side. Humans have a tendency to spend whatever is in their pocket. If gold is the medium of exchange, then I'm not sure how relevant it is to measure that transaction converted to US dollars, except by foreign journalists who want to impress the world with how much money they say the prostitutes are making there. I don't know if a lower international exchange price has affected the volume of extraction from the gold fields since 2012.

https://time-az.com/images/2012/07/20120712MNhzdb51HeY0svg39Xvf1zl72eJkfbmt4t8yenImKBVaiQDB_Rd1H6kmuBWtceBJ.jpg

I think it's a big Canadian company who has the dominant gold concession there. There is also gold being smuggled in over the borders from more restrictive gold law enforcement and higher taxes in adjacent countries.

Shadow Dancer wrote:
Meanwhile, free spoons made of solid sterling silver are an excellent investment with a high rate of return.

Yeah .. I like free. There's enough of a margin on the return to make some mistakes and still come out pretty good.

1 silver spoon at spot will buy a cold 12-pack of Pacifico at Rite Aid, including tax and CRV. If you hump it on Ebay, maybe you can get two 12-packs.

Aug 12 15 08:52 am Link

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Michael Bots

Posts: 8020

Kingston, Ontario, Canada

Texas now has a gold backed bank  -- Others moving that way too

Abbott Brings $1 Billion in Gold Reserves Back to Texas
http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2015/06/ … -to-texas/

A gold rush in Texas?
http://www.star-telegram.com/news/polit … 07600.html

Texas passes law establishing gold-backed bank; repatriates $1 billion in gold bullion
http://www.naturalnews.com/050802_Texas … serve.html


Silver Shortage Reaches Wholesale Market
http://investmentwatchblog.com/silver-s … co-report/



August 15, 1971 - Richard Nixon Closes the Gold Window
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7_Xw5tWsOQo
             Stable at $35 for 1 ounce.

http://triplecrisis.com/a-first-default … ld-window/

"By the cunning of history, though, while the Nixon “default” was designed to restart the American manufacturing machine, instead it set into motion the forces that would lead to the dominance of finance, the hollowing out of American manufacturing, the massive destruction of decent employment — and eventually to the Crash of 2008."



Away From Dollar: Russia, China to Create Entirely Different Gold Market
http://sputniknews.com/business/2015081 … 11280.html

"While key Western banks are artificially restraining gold prices to breathe life into the diluted and devalued dollar system, Russia, China and other emerging economies are involved in "the genial move" to establish an entirely different gold market"

Aug 17 15 11:56 am Link

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Guss W

Posts: 10964

Clearwater, Florida, US

Nov 27 15 02:41 pm Link

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Click Hamilton

Posts: 36555

San Diego, California, US

Guss W wrote:
Time for a follow-up:

http://money.cnn.com/2015/11/27/investi … index.html

This is getting interesting.

Silver is $14.07/oz

Nov 27 15 02:48 pm Link