who should definitely win and who shouldnt?

well...

actor - Phillip Seymour Hoffman 
actress- Reese Witherspoon
supporting actor - George Clooney (as much as I think he is a bad actor he proved me wrong with this one)
supporting actress - I dont have an opinion about this.

directing - i'd like to see Munich get that one

best picture- I would LOVE to see Crash get that one but Brokeback Mountain will win. Whatever movie makes people cry usually wins.

10....9....8...7...

I think Cinderella Man got passed up on Best Picture, Actor, Score, and prolly others... Giamatti deserves the Supporting Actor Award, but I could see Dillon walking away with it just as easily.
Reese should win Actress, and I'd love for Crash to win Picture.