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Forums > Off-Topic Discussion > Greek Default -- Beginning of the end?

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Jay Dezelic

Posts: 5029

Seattle, Washington, US

Greece has closed its banks and implemented capital controls today -- freezing customer accounts and limiting withdrawals to $67 per day for it's citizens:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33305019

Greece will probably default on 1.5 b Euro debt owed to the IMF this coming Tuesday. 

Many financial experts have talked about the collapse of the Greek banking system as one of many possible catalysts that will spark a major worldwide economic melt down.

What do you think?  Is a big "adjustment" about to occur or will the world continue having confidence in insolvent banks and governments?

Jun 28 15 07:49 pm Link

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NothingIsRealButTheGirl

Posts: 35726

Los Angeles, California, US

Reagan was the beginning of the end.

Not sure where this falls.

Jun 28 15 07:56 pm Link

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DOUGLASFOTOS

Posts: 10604

Los Angeles, California, US

Free Feta For All.

It is about that Milk.

Jun 28 15 07:56 pm Link

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GK photo

Posts: 31025

Laguna Beach, California, US

so you're saying the greeks will be the alpha of the omega?

Jun 28 15 08:10 pm Link

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martin b

Posts: 2770

Manila, National Capital Region, Philippines

Greece has so many money problems I am not surprised.

Jun 28 15 08:11 pm Link

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SAND DIAL

Posts: 6688

Santa Monica, California, US

soapbox is closed.

Jun 28 15 08:37 pm Link

Photographer

kickfight

Posts: 35054

Portland, Oregon, US

The Bilderberg Group will meet and perform the appropriate ritual. Life will go on.

Bookmark this thread and check back in a year.

"Major worldwide economic melt down". Riiiiight.

Jun 28 15 08:38 pm Link

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Chris Rifkin

Posts: 25581

Tampa, Florida, US

An example of what happens when a country runs out of other people's money....hope some of ya are observing

and any more goes into soap box territory

Jun 28 15 08:40 pm Link

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DOUGLASFOTOS

Posts: 10604

Los Angeles, California, US

What everyone forgets is those lame brain over priced Olympics. It cost Athens, Greece over 15 Billion, in 2008 and they never recovered. Every City in the world should always reject the Olympics. IT cost too much money. Lame Bullshit.

Jun 28 15 08:40 pm Link

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DOUGLASFOTOS

Posts: 10604

Los Angeles, California, US

Wouldn't it be neat if IB would stop with the freaking double posting. Another freaking bug.

Jun 28 15 08:40 pm Link

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udor

Posts: 25255

New York, New York, US

Jay Dezelic wrote:
Greece has closed its banks and implemented capital controls today -- freezing customer accounts and limiting withdrawals to $67 per day for it's citizens:

What do you think?  Is a big "adjustment" about to occur or will the world continue having confidence in insolvent banks and governments?

Greece committed fraud!

If Greece were a US citizen, and would have lied about it's assets, forged documents to get approval for a major bankloan... then Greece would have been convicted of bankfraud and done time... unless if she would have been "too big to fail"...

The sub-prime loan debacle in the US had to do with lenders giving mortgages to people who would never have gotten a loan from a regular bank, because lending criteria weren't met... so... those high risk loans were sold, then packaged and as derivatives traded on Wall Street... I know(!), because I traded CMO's (Collateralized Mortgage Obligations) in the mid-90's at a Bond House on Wall Street (No.2)...

Greece faked their balance sheets to be accepted in the EU and the Euro system! She was never qualified to be part of the system because of lack of financial strength... so, they defrauded the EU, entered... and is now burning!

Most things that are based on fraudulent misrepresentations fail sooner or later... now it's Greece's turn to face the sirtaki...

Jun 28 15 08:46 pm Link

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Chris Rifkin

Posts: 25581

Tampa, Florida, US

The model is what Iceland did,let all the banks fail,arrest the frauds,start over
their economy is from what I gather one of the top 5 in the world

Jun 28 15 08:50 pm Link

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Vintagevista

Posts: 11804

Sun City, California, US

They will default - and it will be painful for Greece.  And it MUST be painful - because to do otherwise would allow the other nations that are in trouble, to think - "well, that's not so bad - we'll just keep borrowing and spending other people's money with no consequences - until we need to default"

The rest of the EU nations must look around and tell themselves - "nope we can't have what happened to
greece happen to our people"

Greece defaulting will not crash the world.

That's our job in the US, when we eventually do it....

Jun 28 15 08:51 pm Link

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udor

Posts: 25255

New York, New York, US

Chris Rifkin wrote:
The model is what Iceland did,let all the banks fail,arrest the frauds,start over
their economy is from what I gather one of the top 5 in the world

Yep... and funny enough... those frauds and finance models that lead to the downfall... were ALL American...

The swift action in the aftermath, cutting ties to US bank practices is what helped to turn Iceland around!

I remember a great documentary about this on PBS Frontline some years back...

Jun 28 15 09:03 pm Link

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Bobby C

Posts: 2696

Bangkok, Bangkok, Thailand

Yeah, beginning of the end of BAD banking practices i.e. following the criminal US banking practices.

Jun 28 15 09:18 pm Link

Model

Jay Dezelic

Posts: 5029

Seattle, Washington, US

udor wrote:

Greece committed fraud!

If Greece were a US citizen, and would have lied about it's assets, forged documents to get approval for a major bankloan... then Greece would have been convicted of bankfraud and done time... unless if she would have been "too big to fail"...

The sub-prime loan debacle in the US had to do with lenders giving mortgages to people who would never have gotten a loan from a regular bank, because lending criteria weren't met... so... those high risk loans were sold, then packaged and as derivatives traded on Wall Street... I know(!), because I traded CMO's (Collateralized Mortgage Obligations) in the mid-90's at a Bond House on Wall Street (No.2)...

Greece faked their balance sheets to be accepted in the EU and the Euro system! She was never qualified to be part of the system because of lack of financial strength... so, they defrauded the EU, entered... and is now burning!

Most things that are based on fraudulent misrepresentations fail sooner or later... now it's Greece's turn to face the sirtaki...

It just makes one wonder about how deep the fraud goes with regard to fluffing up balance sheets.  Isn't the US pretty much in the same position as before the 2008 crash?

I am not clear on how the experts believe that a default in Greece will have an effect on larger economies, but I suspect it's because the system is so tightly integrated.  Classic bank runs are simply votes of no-confidence by depositors. If a "low confidence" epidemic starts spreading to other countries, then it seems that cash shortfalls will get tougher to manage.

Jun 28 15 11:19 pm Link

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Solas

Posts: 10390

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Wonder what would happen with the american debt if that happened over here. .they have far more debt

Jun 29 15 04:45 am Link

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Michael Bots

Posts: 8020

Kingston, Ontario, Canada

Solas wrote:
Wonder what would happen with the american debt if that happened over here. .they have far more debt

The Federal Reserve (a consortium of private banks) has been accumulating much of the debt.   
Where did the money come from?   They made it up out of thin air.

Bank Bail In   (Google it) -- take the depositors money to make up any shortfall.

The Secret of Oz
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qIhDdST27g

Former World Bank President: Big Shift Coming
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6a0zhc1y_Ns
        ( how the equation between developed and developing countries is changing.)

Money creation in the modern economy
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publicat … 14q102.pdf
"Whenever a bank makes a loan, it simultaneously creates a matching deposit in the borrower’s bank account, thereby creating new money"
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IMF forecasts for Greece and Reality
https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status … 64/photo/1

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CISuBQ5W8AARsrq.jpg

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Europe Only Has a Future With the New Silk Road
http://thephaser.com/2015/06/we-are-all-greeks/
"Why should the Greek government stick with the austerity measures demanded by the EU, which have already reduced the Greek economy by a third, lowered the birth rate, raised the death rate, and increased youth unemployment to 65%? A policy that even the IMF had to admit was completely incompetent, and that the UN expert on debt and human rights condemned as a clear violation of human rights?"
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China-led AIIB development bank holds signing ceremony
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-33307314

"The UK, Germany, Australia and South Korea are among the founding members.
Japan and the US, which oppose the AIIB, are the most prominent countries not to join"


57 countries set to sign on to China-backed investment bank AIIB
http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2015/0 … bank-aiib/

"The multilateral institution, seen as a rival to the Western-dominated World Bank and Asian Development Bank, was initially opposed by the United States but has attracted many prominent U.S. allies including Britain, Germany, Australia and South Korea. Other founding members include most Asian nations and countries from the Middle East and South America."

Jun 29 15 07:56 am Link

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Solas

Posts: 10390

Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Michael Bots wrote:
"

man nevermind asking google, you're like a robot of information on everything !

Jun 29 15 08:23 am Link

Photographer

Looknsee Photography

Posts: 26342

Portland, Oregon, US

FWIW -- Puerto Rico is close to defaulting on their loans, too.

Let's say you have a mortgage on your home, and you miss a payment.  You talk with your bank & work out a solution to pay off what you owe.  But you miss that payment, too.  What should happen to you?  To your home?  That's pretty much what is happening to Greece, Puerto Rico, and other countries.

Many countries, including the US, borrow money for their pet projects, like the wars in Iraq & Afghanistan.  Borrowing money is 'way easier than raising revenue (i.e. raising taxes).  Nowadays, the amount of money we spend on paying interest alone is staggering.

Personally, like Benjamin Franklin, I believe that debt is slavery (and savings are freedom).  I tend to avoid borrowing money, and when I do, I prefer to borrow money on things that I expect to increase in value.  So, getting a mortgage for a property in a good location is acceptable.  Getting a car loan for a car is (to me) stupid.

So, in my opinion, Greece is the first.  This can be very, very, very bad.

Jun 29 15 08:36 am Link

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Instinct Images

Posts: 23162

San Diego, California, US

Greece has a major problem in that a significant portion of their GDP is under the table and so it's not taxed. Of course that's just ONE of the many severe problems that Greece has. I don't see any way they can avoid default.

Jun 29 15 01:57 pm Link

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SAND DIAL

Posts: 6688

Santa Monica, California, US

Thank u Michael.

I will check them.

Jun 29 15 09:18 pm Link

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SAND DIAL

Posts: 6688

Santa Monica, California, US

OZ----like, www.thepowerhour.com/news4/wizard_of_oz … ans.htmThe "Wizard of Oz", written by L. Frank Baum, is not a mere child's story. What is "Oz" a symbol for? ... The Federal Reserve System. Who finally exposed the etc?????

Jun 29 15 09:22 pm Link

Photographer

Lightcraft Studio

Posts: 13682

Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Instinct Images wrote:
Greece has a major problem in that a significant portion of their GDP is under the table and so it's not taxed. Of course that's just ONE of the many severe problems that Greece has. I don't see any way they can avoid default.

Exactly. Greeks have an inherent resistance to paying taxes, so about 1/2 the business/commerce is done outside the tax system. But, since they also have a heavy dependence on social programs, there's a real squeeze. Options to borrow more to just stay afloat (with no real promise of actually fixing the root problem) are getting increasingly scarce.

Jun 29 15 09:50 pm Link

Photographer

GK photo

Posts: 31025

Laguna Beach, California, US

Instinct Images wrote:
Greece has a major problem in that a significant portion of their GDP is under the table and so it's not taxed. Of course that's just ONE of the many severe problems that Greece has. I don't see any way they can avoid default.

Lightcraft Studio wrote:
Exactly. Greeks have an inherent resistance to paying taxes, so about 1/2 the business/commerce is done outside the tax system. But, since they also have a heavy dependence on social programs, there's a real squeeze. Options to borrow more to just stay afloat (with no real promise of actually fixing the root problem) are getting increasingly scarce.

was robbing peter to pay paul a greek thing? i forget. it was probably a rome thing, but my memory is foggy.

Jun 29 15 10:07 pm Link

Photographer

Lightcraft Studio

Posts: 13682

Las Vegas, Nevada, US

GK photo wrote:
was robbing peter to pay paul a greek thing? i forget. it was probably a rome thing, but my memory is foggy.

It's complicated:

http://www.phrases.org.uk/meanings/rob- … -paul.html

Jun 29 15 10:32 pm Link

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Michael Bots

Posts: 8020

Kingston, Ontario, Canada

It's not just Greece.  The problems are deeper than that, and structural, sort of like they were in 1937 or 1912.

Interesting that the U.S. government has the power to issue / create money on it's own rather than borrow (with interest) from a private bank that creates it.     Remember the Trillion dollar platinum coin idea?

The Treasury Has Already Minted Two Trillion Dollar Coins
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kotlikoff/2 … lar-coins/
The Trillion-Dollar Platinum Coin Is Back
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ … in-is-back
Be Ready To Mint That Coin
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/0 … that-coin/

http://capitolcommentary.com/wp-content … -money.jpg



French Economy In "Dire Straits", "Worse Than Anyone Can Imagine", Leaked NSA Cable Reveals
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-06-2 … le-reveals

White House: No federal bailout for Puerto Rico
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/white-hou … 16211.html

Jun 30 15 03:03 am Link

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martin b

Posts: 2770

Manila, National Capital Region, Philippines

I think it is a combination of people not paying taxes and too much dependance on social programs. 

My American friends here brag about doing the same thing in the USA.  My police friend said he retired with a 90k a year retirement and free health insurance for life.  Plus he brags how he and 96% of cops in California retire on disability and don't pay taxes.  And it is encouraged by his union. 

I can see why California is always broke like Greece.

Jun 30 15 03:19 am Link

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FlirtynFun Photography

Posts: 13926

Houston, Texas, US

NothingIsRealButTheGirl wrote:
Reagan was the beginning of the end.

Not sure where this falls.

your trolling was the beginning of the end...of SB...please stay on topic

Jun 30 15 05:47 am Link

Model

Jay Dezelic

Posts: 5029

Seattle, Washington, US

"U.S. stocks suffer worst drop of 2015 on Greek default fears"
http://money.cnn.com/2015/06/29/investi … greece-us/

Will Greece set a precedence for defaulting on public debt? There are many other countries that are on the edge of financial ruin from over-spending. A wave of defaults could turn a lot of paper assets around the world into toilet paper--which would, in tern, gut the capitalization of the world economy.

"Greek Default May Ultimately Be The Best Bet For The U.S."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/06/2 … 90980.html

I think that this notion is just another white house spin.  Maybe Obama can help broker a deal that floats Greece and the rest of the Euro community for a while longer, but it seems to me that the entire system is beginning to unravel. 

Maybe a perfect economic storm on the horizon?  - The US economy has hardly recovered from 2008 and now we are due for another cyclical recession (if you believe in cycles).  But this time, US debt, regulatory burdens and real "boom-time" unemployment is higher than ever while major bank balance sheets are on the thinest margins ever.  A much larger percentage of the US population lives off the money system (and government subsidies/entitlements) than ever before.  By many measures, the US economy is far less sustainable today than it was in 2008 -- at least if you look at it on a production capacity vs promises basis.

Ok. So if we are seeing the signs of a major economic cram-down, what do you do about it (personally)? If things get tight, the game is rigged to further fill the pockets of the ultra wealthy through foreclosures, asset seizures, short sales, monopolies and artificial scarcity of just about everything we consume from medical services to food.  What is your plan if the effects of a default epidemic spreads here to the US?

Jun 30 15 09:46 am Link

Photographer

Lightcraft Studio

Posts: 13682

Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Jay Dezelic wrote:
Will Greece set a precedence for defaulting on public debt? There are many other countries that are on the edge of financial ruin from over-spending. A wave of defaults could turn a lot of paper assets around the world into toilet paper--which would, in tern, gut the capitalization of the world economy.

I'm more concerned about Brazil than I am about Greece. We also have some ticking time bombs even closer to home, Puerto Rico being one of them. But, there are some good opportunities out there if you have the stomach for the "junk bond" market... I don't right now, as I think things that things that have been kept hidden from us are going to start seeing the light of day in the next 2 years. It might get bumpy, so I'm opting to keep a larger than usual cash position.

Jun 30 15 10:30 am Link

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Michael Bots

Posts: 8020

Kingston, Ontario, Canada

The curse of the spreadsheet.  One wrong assumption ruins everything.


The next Greece may be in the U.S.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/these- … 2015-06-30

"In some places, like Puerto Rico, Illinois, New Jersey and Chicago, entire balance sheets of cities or states hang in the balance.
Detroit, as well as three Californian cities — Vallejo, Stockton and San Bernardino — had to declare bankruptcy because of their overwhelming pension costs."



Puerto Rico poses bigger threat to U.S. investors than Greece
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/puerto … 2015-06-30

"Although the Puerto Rican debt crisis is no secret to residents of the island, the governor’s statement essentially was the first official opening for a renegotiation of the debt"

"Puerto Rico cannot file for Chapter 9 bankruptcy, like Detroit did, and neither can its public corporations and local agencies"

Jun 30 15 12:19 pm Link

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Blue Cube Imaging

Posts: 11883

Ashland, Oregon, US

Moderator Warning!
Please remember when posting that SoapBox is closed.

Jun 30 15 12:52 pm Link

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The Grey Forest

Posts: 542

Igoumenítsa, Kentriki Ellada, Greece

NothingIsRealButTheGirl wrote:
Reagan was the beginning of the end. Not sure where this falls.

FlirtynFun Photography wrote:
your trolling was the beginning of the end...of SB...please stay on topic

Actually that statement about Reagan was more on spot-on that you know, its a string of government psychosis and historical events that have already tipped the scales to a degree that will forever effect the modern world.

The Gov jumped at it, but the citizens didn't want to enter the EU and resisted it from day 1.  Given with that mindset, things only got progressively worse for most.  The riots & torching over the past several years were symptoms of a underlying cultural issue.  Greeks resist overbearing authority - to an unbalanced and extraordinary level ~ and frown upon the exploits of the uber-rich.  Germany still owes Greece billions in reparations that would more than pay off the debt ~ but that's a shill game that all countries play - We owe them, while owing others, who owe us, on tallies that will never ever be settled = NEVER

Here in Greece, the cabal of the Central Bank and its mafia system of perpetual debt is seen as slavery, nothing less. 

I'm not wealthy by any means, but over the past few years I've sacrificed and bought thousands in groceries for friends & acquaintances who had nothing to eat, its heartbreaking.  We help each other where we can.  But keep in mind that this series of events can (and eventually will) happen in the USA.

Is there light at the end of the tunnel for us?  maybe after a series of riots against the banks, if martial law is imposed then the reaction will most likely turn violent or into a shade of Civil War, or a measure of government reform at the very least (do some house cleaning of the cabinets)  With 60% of the population is centered around Athens any catalyst won't go unnoticed.


...I'm interested in seeing how this affects the US economy, gas prices, and the upcoming public stress of the Jade Helm Military Operations come July 15th and end result of the secret Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Jun 30 15 01:07 pm Link

Photographer

Lightcraft Studio

Posts: 13682

Las Vegas, Nevada, US

Blue Cube Imaging wrote:
Please remember when posting that SoapBox is closed.

Forgive me for being confused, but discussing international finance/investing is SoapBox'ish while the couple of threads that are all out hate fests against Christians is perfectly fine?

I would have asked you in a PM, but I know mods don't want us to use PM for these sorts of questions, and others might want to understand the "guidelines" as well.

Jun 30 15 01:10 pm Link

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Springfield Fotografiya

Posts: 277

Springfield, Missouri, US

The best solution may be the simplest solution.  The Greeks want the Germans to pay to provide for them.  The Germans want the Greeks to be governed like Germans.  Why not make Greece the 14th state of Germany?  That would keep it within the EU, but as a member state of Germany.  The Greeks would be better off being provided for and governed by the Germans than they are on their own.  The Germans would be better off without a rogue member of the EU and with the land, people and resources of Greece. wink

Jun 30 15 01:28 pm Link

Photographer

The Grey Forest

Posts: 542

Igoumenítsa, Kentriki Ellada, Greece

Springfield Fotografiya wrote:
The best solution may be the simplest solution.  The Greeks want the Germans to pay to provide for them.  The Germans want the Greeks to be governed like Germans.  Why not make Greece the 14th state of Germany?  That would keep it within the EU, but as a member state of Germany.  The Greeks would be better off being provided for and governed by the Germans than they are on their own.  The Germans would be better off without a rogue member of the EU and with the land, people and resources of Greece. wink

(Dr. Evil voice)  ....riiiggggght 

While I do agree that Germany has reformed itself for the better ~ I can think of 101 uses for olive oil that will slip up any plans of that ever happening.

Jun 30 15 02:58 pm Link

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NothingIsRealButTheGirl

Posts: 35726

Los Angeles, California, US

Lightcraft Studio wrote:
I would have asked you in a PM, but I know mods don't want us to use PM for these sorts of questions, and others might want to understand the "guidelines" as well.

One really good guideline would be to stop writing intellectually dishonest nonsense like this:

"threads that are all out hate fests against Christians"

Jun 30 15 04:43 pm Link

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NothingIsRealButTheGirl

Posts: 35726

Los Angeles, California, US

https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--UEOu7x65--/c_fit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_636/1320546290997258052.png

Jun 30 15 04:44 pm Link

Photographer

Lightcraft Studio

Posts: 13682

Las Vegas, Nevada, US

NothingIsRealButTheGirl wrote:

One really good guideline would be to stop writing intellectually dishonest nonsense like this:

"threads that are all out hate fests against Christians"

There are dozens of posts in those threads where if the exact same sentences had been uttered, except substituting "Muhammad" or "Gay People" for "Jesus" or "Christians" then there would be WWIII and people would be getting brigged quicker than you can say "Obama is.....".

Double standards live on here in MM land, as usual.

Jun 30 15 05:38 pm Link