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100% Unemployment: A World Without Work
The end-of-work argument has often been dismissed as the “Luddite fallacy,” an allusion to the 19th-century British brutes who smashed textile-making machines at the dawn of the industrial revolution, fearing the machines would put hand-weavers out of work. But some of the most sober economists are beginning to worry that the Luddites weren’t wrong, just premature. When former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers was an MIT undergraduate in the early 1970s, many economists disdained “the stupid people [who] thought that automation was going to make all the jobs go away,” he said at the National Bureau of Economic Research Summer Institute in July 2013. “Until a few years ago, I didn’t think this was a very complicated subject: the Luddites were wrong, and the believers in technology and technological progress were right. I’m not so completely certain now.” http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc … rk/395294/ Jun 24 15 01:09 pm Link  Jun 24 15 01:16 pm Link I recently did some productivity, efficiency and risk management consulting for a family owned metal manufacturing business. Their past experience with automation has actually increased their human workforce. Two years ago they installed two automated punch presses that are capable of running for eight to ten hours, unattended, before they run out of raw materials and stop. What this means to the company is they can turn out twice the number of parts in a 24 hour period as they could before. The two man crew that load and operated the old punch presses are still employed, but they load the machines twice a day, once in the morning and again right before quitting time so the machines can run overnight. This doubled their need for press brake, assembly and finishing personnel. At the same time, their output has more than doubled. Recently, and the reason I was asked to give my advice, was they are considering installing two robotic welding stations. The two welders currently doing the work will be trained as the operators and two more employees will be hired as "loaders/unloaders" and a third employee who is now part time as the punch press programmer will attend training and go full time as punch press and robotic welder programmer. This will improve production in welding to about 1.6 times current production. What does this mean for the future? The increase in welding production will create the need for a third automated punch press, two more break presses, two more assembly stations and one more person in finishing. While all this is going on, cost per finished piece is going down due to the greater efficiency of the entire process. An added bonus is the automated and robotic machines are much safer to operate because they are heavily shielded and the operator is safety away at the operating station. The loaders and unloaders have to be clear of the sensor mats around the machine before the machine will resume operation. In this case, automation has actually created more jobs. Jun 24 15 01:37 pm Link Automation and technology can certainly enhance the capabilities of employers and employees, I agree. Take a look at Harley Davidson. The company is a good example of how technology and automation can make a company and its employees great. Sadly, though, lopsided trade agreements such as the TPP and NAFTA don't help most American companies and workers. Sadly, production and manufacturing jobs are shipped overseas and the companies are forced to close as a result of these kinds of trade agreements. Jun 24 15 01:53 pm Link ernst tischler wrote: I think automation is changing the landscape in terms of the types of jobs out there. Machines do the work that unskilled workers used to do, and create new jobs for skilled people (making and maintaining the machines). So, automation is great for the people with skills, but not so great for those who don't have the skills. Jun 24 15 01:53 pm Link The linked article is very much worth reading and certainly raises pertinent questions as to our (near) future. Jun 24 15 01:56 pm Link One of the ongoing challenges for the foreseeable future will be getting these increasing numbers of disparate systems to produce data that other systems can consume and apply and then do callbacks as a form of rudimentary language for communicating amongst themselves. There is way too much cludgy homebrew middleware handling these tasks (that is, when humans aren't actually doing much of this work manually) Also, the establishment of a common open-source methodology for these systems to be audited (and to self-audit) for integrity, so that no system becomes too isolated nor is permitted to operate mostly in isolation without reliable reporting output that is coherent to the general enterprise. A lot of troubleshooting is still done manually because systems are not audited properly/regularly and self-auditing remains at a very primitive stage (and what does exist is not being used efficiently). Right now vast amounts of extra hardware are being tossed at the problem as a quick (and always allegedly "temporary") fix. This is obviously not a sustainable approach. Also, prioritization protocols: the point when a particular system should delegate tasks to a subordinate system or escalate tasks to a command system for balancing purposes... etc, etc. This also has a long way to go before it starts becoming truly efficient. It is certainly the twilight of certain legacy skill-sets but only the first light of dawn for other proficiencies. Jun 24 15 03:00 pm Link Gerardo Martinez wrote: Eats organic food to be healthy. Jun 24 15 03:29 pm Link as long as we keep breeding stupid people...there will be a need for more intelligent people to help them. IT sees no slow down. Jun 24 15 03:32 pm Link Evan Hiltunen wrote: Agree completely. It's nice to have some insightful pertinent information to discuss for a change. Jun 24 15 03:54 pm Link FlirtynFun Photography wrote: Maybe there will be a small number of self-sufficient plantations owned by billionaires and run by robot slaves and everyone else will die since they aren't owed a living. Jun 24 15 04:03 pm Link kickfight wrote: True. Also very nice to be directed toward an article I may not have read on my own. Jun 24 15 05:22 pm Link Evan Hiltunen wrote: It's one of many possible solutions, yes. During the Great Depression, the government helped create many job opportunities that would otherwise not have existed. However, I would expect the changing nature of work to affect government as well. For example, I can certainly envision a mostly-automated DMV in the near-ish future. Jun 24 15 05:34 pm Link kickfight wrote: Part of what I really enjoyed about the article was that it really prompts speculation not just about how things are changing, how much they could change, but, also, what will be, or could be, the responses to these changes. Jun 24 15 05:41 pm Link years ago I did extensive research on this issue: in my sci-fi novels I predicted what life would be say; 300 yrs in the future, and the rise and fall of "Flesh Unions" meant to keep jobs for Humans in the face of increased AI and Robotic labor forces. So let's take a look at the dream of Utopia: Science and Technology excel to a point where no-one has to work or labor to survive; and are free to pursue higher aspirations of creativity. (or any other amount of enlightenment to fill that void) Labor (punching the clock) is looked at as a necessity to pay for existence: (to put food on the table and roof over your head and paying the bills, etc.) The envisioning of STAR TREK brought this ideal to the masses: Housing was available to all and replicators took care of the most basic human needs: Food & Shelter. Where labor and career became a free individual choice to aid in the betterment of mankind as a whole ~ being a part of society as Voluntary rather than a forced necessity. A nice ideal ... but could it work ? So we introduce the INDUSTRIAL AGE: into this pot of soup, more automation = more production = which certainly must be good for everyone, right? Until Industry Corp realized that having robotics means 24 hr 7 day week workforce that doesn't come in late, need medical or paid vacations, sick leave or a pension. Cost of labor is a huge drain to their wallets, so they replace them with gears & wires and technology. More $$$ for the Company. ~ agriculture to textiles to mass production of most items you can think of ~ however this "Replaced" human work force is now displaced and most often need to invest in a new set of skills to continue to provide FOOD & SHELTER that they see the Robotic Automation stole from them. Its a justified grievance, but one Corporations care little about. MODERN DAY: Let's face it, America is a failed experiment, capitalism doesn't work when you take a economic formula based on competition and Corporations bastardize that fundamental idea and merge to create monopolies and back room deals for price fixing. That Cell phone or iPad in your hand was actually made for literally pennies on the dollar thanks to Automation and mass production (and a tad more Sweat shop labor than we care to admit) ~ which would be GREAT FOR EVERYONE if the price tag stayed around 2% what you bought it for (the actual cost of production) ...However, you will pay 10, 20, 40, 50 or 100 X times its actual "value" because that miracle product of the Industrial age continues being exploited by Corporate Greed. Thus, you don't benefit whatsoever since you're being robbed by items that are far, far and I mean FAR overpriced ~ thus your own individual income does not go as far as it actually should. That $200 iPad = around $5 in parts & labor, that $2 can of soup = .04 cents of content. And people look around and see all this automation and wonder why life isn't getting easier. Well it is, but only for the top few who actually OWN the Industry. THE PROBLEM: Greed is the poison that taints the entire system, instead of just taking what we need, there are some who horde, some far more than most. Some CEO's make tens of Millions $ per year ~ somehow justifying that they produce the same workload as +1000 or more laborers. Its the outrageous unfairness that common workers are expected to accept. One single persons wages can in reality = pay for the livelihood of +1000 individuals. But ~ why should they ...the real question is, why not ? http://www.trueactivist.com/worlds-100- … imes-over/ THE TRUE PROBLEM: Our planet is overpopulated by about 15:1 http://www.census.gov/popclock/ the Petri dish has already overflowed and has soured, and the Industrial age is the blood stained villain looming above humankind as we hastily kill ourselves from our own ingenuity. We have to Curb this tower of burden we are building precariously far too tall, guaranteeing its ultimate collapse. Unfortunately, it may not be a fate we can escape from. Humans like to dream, to tinker, to create, but we lost the goal of sharing that dream for the good of the many and became servants and slaves for the few who siphon our souls like vampires to fulfill their own. Arguably, an economy based on trading shiny rocks & beads is far more stable than phantom digital 1's & 0's, which time will prove. Automation isn't he savior of mankind when its used to mass produce billions of bullets and bombs http://www.businessinsider.com/military … 11-10?op=1 it's to the level of insanity and disgust: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/1 … 75045.html We could stop making weapons, stop murdering one another in the name of phantom Gods or personal beliefs, stop treating one another as lessers, stop the cruelty and inhumanity ~ but we can't, because these are all VERY HUMAN things to do. In reality: Utopia is but a dark nightmare we avoid like a plague ~ something we whisper in fear under our breath in the cold night as we twitch at every moving shadow. If only we could allow Artisans and Dreamers to welcome in a 2nd Renaissance, it would save us from the approaching storm and enter the new age of higher culture & awareness. But in reality, Automation and the Industrial Age was simply a catalyst to expose what we truly are inside; a flawed and unbalanced species prone to self annihilation. We are our own worst enemy. Jun 24 15 05:51 pm Link Evan Hiltunen wrote: Absolutely a concern. Concentrations of wealth and power that do not weave back into the greater social fabric are dangerous. I have some venture capital friends who are doing some work in the Detroit area to get manufacturing going there even if on a small scale. Their goal is to reinvigorate independent domestic industry as a source of local pride and financial stability for the community. I've thrown in some seed money and wish them the very best. Jun 24 15 06:05 pm Link This article, and many like it, is built on the assumption that the chicken came before the egg, and that there can be no disagreement about it. I live in a town that like many others, has lost much of its industry over the last few decades. I also work at my family's electronics store, which has been in business since 1937. In the past, when we put out a hiring ad, we would offer a bit above minimum wage, plus commissions. We would typically get 5-10 applicants in the first week, and a few less the second. They were of varying ages and sexes, and from high school dropouts to 2 year college grads, with the occasional 4 year graduate. We've had ads running for a few weeks now on Monster, Craigslist, the local paper, and through a hiring service. Proportionally we're offering higher pay than we did before. In a few weeks, we've gotten something like three applicants. Two of them have four year degrees, and none of them will work for what we're offering. When we put out ads for someone to work in our photo lab, we get more responses. It's rare to get an applicant that doesn't have at least a 2 year degree. Again, almost none of them are willing to work for what we offered. I have spoken to owners and managers of other businesses in the area looking for semi-skilled or sales positions, and their experiences are the same. Everybody has a degree now, and expects to be paid more because of it, regardless of what the job is worth. Maybe it's to pay student loans, but that doesn't change the fact that Americans are unwilling to take unskilled or semi-skilled jobs at the rate those jobs normally earn. We don't have high unemployment specifically because of machines, or because of foreigners, or any of that. Up until the 80s, very few people went to college, and it cost less. Also importantly, real estate cost less. Perhaps most importantly of all, we didn't have internet or cell phones. You could make minimum wage as a childless couple, and still live a decent life. Not great, but decent. Hopefully you got promoted a few times before you had kids. Today, a graduate with $50,000 in student loans, paying their own phone bill, could very easily pay $500-$700/month before you even factor in anything else. You'd need to have a roommate or be married just to make ends meet with a minimum wage job. So as a result, a lot of people, especially those too young or tooold to have dependents, just don't take those jobs. College degrees are like old baseball cards. A mickey Mantle rookie card is only valuable because most kids stuck them in their spokes, or their moms threw them away. If everybody kept them they'd be worthless. A degree is the same. If everyone in town has a law degree, lawyers aren't going to get paid much. But they still have seven years of school to pay for, so they're all going to gravitate towards something that pays more. That leaves you with a town full of legal graduates, and no lawyers. What do you do then? You have to bring in lawyers from outside. Everyone whose father worked at a mill or in a mine, grew up being told to go to college, so they didn't have to do that. Why are we now surprised that so many of these jobs are now taken by non-Americans? Why are we surprised that more of the work is being done by machine,when there is a shortage of willing workers? Jun 24 15 06:51 pm Link NothingIsRealButTheGirl wrote:
Jun 25 15 09:53 am Link CIO President Walter Reuther was being shown through the Ford Motor plant in Cleveland. Henry Ford II: Walter, how are you going to get those robots to pay your union dues? Walter Reuther: Henry, how are you going to get them to buy your cars? - http://quoteinvestigator.com/2011/11/16 … -buy-cars/ Jun 25 15 09:56 am Link I'm not sure you can extrapolate your specific experience into a macroeconomic argument. While it may be true that the company you speak of wound up with a net increase in employment, it did that in order to enable greater efficiency in production. So, from a macro standpoint it now takes fewer resources, both human and machine, to produce a unit of production. In the aggregate, unless demand goes up worldwide for widgets for some external reason, higher productivity by companies like this must result in a smaller number of 'producers'. The effect is a lower number of workers worldwide needed to make the same number of widgets. If that were not the case, your company would not have taken the steps it did. Arguments that presume technology will generate an aggregate growth in the need for human labor ignore the ultimate effect of Moore's law on production. As overall cost of producing goods and services declines due to automation and artificial intelligence it will become impossible for the supply / demand curve in many industries to adjust to equilibrium. By then we will have to have found a different way to funnel income and a sense of meaning to the new "superfluous class" or get ready for a great deal of upheaval. ernst tischler wrote: Jun 25 15 10:23 am Link Food for thought -- what happens when production is so automated that 10 hours per week on average is all that is needed to run society? Guarantee a minimum income, not a minimum wage http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comme … nimum-wage Alberta mayors back guaranteed minimum income http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2015 … ncome.html "findings show that while a guaranteed minimum income can be costly for governments, it can also lead to savings down the line" Dutch city of Utrecht to experiment with a universal, unconditional 'basic income' http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world … 45595.html Volkswagen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nM2l0wqNVZ8 Factory City (unit labor is how small?) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMm-YMO5H7o Komatsu - Autonomous Haulage System https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHtMNFZLMWE Autonomous driving Freightliner Inspiration Truck https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVk7xQNM5V0 Mary Maersk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xtyWgPC84ss China's Ultimate Port https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MlQmMTp_T0M Hadrian the robot bricklayer can build a whole house in two days http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style … 47229.html Gallup http://www.gallup.com/opinion/chairman/ … yment.aspx Shadowstats http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_da … ent-charts Forbes http://www.forbes.com/sites/richardabou … -industry/ Jun 25 15 12:51 pm Link |
