Forums > Off-Topic Discussion > The Big Short ( part 2 )

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

And down the market goes again

Gold continues to climb

and those Bear Stock ETFs are moving up as well

Jan 03 19 10:18 pm Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Garry k wrote:
And down the market goes again

Gold continues to climb

and those Bear Stock ETFs are moving up as well

And ths morning BABA and NVDA hit the pre-programmed "buy" point and computers must have bought a ton of each.
BABA up 9.80 per share, NVDA up 8.48 per share currently. Until we hit the pre-programmed sell point, then down they go.

Choppy waters, not gonna be smooth sailing for now. Settle in, run and hide, keep cash on hand - your choice.

Jan 04 19 09:37 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Jobs numbers were good and the head of the Fed spoke moderately with a "wait and see" tone.
Both good for stocks.

Jan 04 19 10:47 am Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

What a Wild Ride

smile

Jan 04 19 11:43 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Garry k wrote:
What a Wild Ride

smile

I see no end in sight to the twists, turns, bumps and dips.
All of this was inevitable, ETFs, computerized trading, the low cost of being your own broker (Fidelity, Vanguard, Etrade etc) resulting in a huge increase in "home traders" and the increased speed of the news cycle have all contributed.
There is no going back, rather I suspect it will get worse.
And a total meltdown (which I doubt will happen any time soon) will not be cause for a "re-set", just a repeat.

As individuals, humans are smart. As a group, we are imbeciles!!!!

Jan 04 19 12:00 pm Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

I see it trending down

simply reflecting a growing global economic slowdown

Jan 04 19 12:09 pm Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Well the Market appears to be back on an uptrend

And I see Cramer is again pumping those FAANG stocks

hmmm

but for how long

Jan 09 19 12:22 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Garry k wrote:
Well the Market appears to be back on an uptrend

And I see Cramer is again pumping those FAANG stocks

hmmm

but for how long

Precious metals are still moving up even while the overall market is on an uptick.
So many are still seeking a "safe haven" investment.
Meanwhile, all of my other stocks are headed in the right direction for now.

Nobody can predict the future but it seems there are lots of bargains out there and always remember that large institutional buyers/sellers are largely programs in computers set to trigger points and that the price of a stock that is on solid ground can be affected by the performance of lesser stocks in the same ETF, both positively and negatively.

Jan 09 19 08:12 am Link

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sospix

Posts: 23775

Orlando, Florida, US

Well, my remaining Tilray sold this morning at right @$100 per share  .  .  .  nice ride in a pretty short time  .  .  .  good chance I'll revisit that one if it gets pushed down into the low $70's, or high $60's  .  .  .  companies like that are ripe for a buyout, so timing will be everything  .  .  .

SOS

Jan 11 19 11:00 am Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

sospix wrote:
Well, my remaining Tilray sold this morning at right @$100 per share  .  .  .  nice ride in a pretty short time  .  .  .  good chance I'll revisit that one if it gets pushed down into the low $70's, or high $60's  .  .  .  companies like that are ripe for a buyout, so timing will be everything  .  .  .

SOS

Congrats

That Stock is too wild a ride for Me

Jan 11 19 08:30 pm Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

sospix wrote:
Well, my remaining Tilray sold this morning at right @$100 per share  .  .  .  nice ride in a pretty short time  .  .  .  good chance I'll revisit that one if it gets pushed down into the low $70's, or high $60's  .  .  .  companies like that are ripe for a buyout, so timing will be everything  .  .  .

SOS

Well done.
Don't wanna take out a second mortgage for such antics but if you have casino money and walk away laughing life is good!

Jan 11 19 09:57 pm Link

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sospix

Posts: 23775

Orlando, Florida, US

Shadow Dancer wrote:

Well done.
Don't wanna take out a second mortgage for such antics but if you have casino money and walk away laughing life is good!

Luckily everything I used for my second foray into Tilray was "winnings" from my first run at it from July to September of 2018  .  .  .  always nice to be using house money  .  .  .  wink  I try and keep a small fund ready for some gambles now and then, this one turned out very nicely both times  .  .  .  I think my last really good play was NVIDIA in 2016-2017  .  .  .  of course, there's plenty of stinkers in the mix too  .  .  .  I'm not sure if I'll ever get back to even again on that Under Armour play a few years back  .  .  .  wink  I guess if I can minimize the real losers, and get a couple nice winners every year or so, it still beats watching the FANG, SPDR and WANG ETFs flutter up and down  .  .  .

SOS

Jan 14 19 08:44 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

sospix wrote:

Luckily everything I used for my second foray into Tilray was "winnings" from my first run at it from July to September of 2018  .  .  .  always nice to be using house money  .  .  .  wink  I try and keep a small fund ready for some gambles now and then, this one turned out very nicely both times  .  .  .  I think my last really good play was NVIDIA in 2016-2017  .  .  .  of course, there's plenty of stinkers in the mix too  .  .  .  I'm not sure if I'll ever get back to even again on that Under Armour play a few years back  .  .  .  wink  I guess if I can minimize the real losers, and get a couple nice winners every year or so, it still beats watching the FANG, SPDR and WANG ETFs flutter up and down  .  .  .

SOS

Yes, much less nerve-wracking to use profits to gamble!!!!

It's an art and a science. I keep a cash stash as well. Lately one must be nimble. I jumped in and out of BABA recently, made 7+% but a fairly small holding. I'm out and it is going down currently. At a certain point I'll pick up some more for a longer term play, I've done well with that stock over the years. The potential is huge but it keeps getting sideswiped.

I have no ETF holdings. I agree with Cramer that you should choose the best in sector and let others gamble on a basket of variable returns.

Jan 14 19 10:41 am Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Shadow Dancer wrote:

Yes, much less nerve-wracking to use profits to gamble!!!!

It's an art and a science. I keep a cash stash as well. Lately one must be nimble. I jumped in and out of BABA recently, made 7+% but a fairly small holding. I'm out and it is going down currently. At a certain point I'll pick up some more for a longer term play, I've done well with that stock over the years. The potential is huge but it keeps getting sideswiped.

I have no ETF holdings. I agree with Cramer that you should choose the best in sector and let others gamble on a basket of variable returns.

ETFs can be sector specific

and Cramer likes Canopy over Tilray

Jan 14 19 11:12 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Garry k wrote:

ETFs can be sector specific

and Cramer likes Canopy over Tilray

Yes, typically they are sector specific. As always, some stocks in a sector will out-perform and some will under-perform.
Imagine a retail ETF with Sears and JC Penney.
You'd be much better off to just own Home Depot and avoid the losers, no?

Jan 14 19 11:17 am Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Shadow Dancer wrote:

Yes, typically they are sector specific. As always, some stocks in a sector will out-perform and some will under-perform.
Imagine a retail ETF with Sears and JC Penney.
You'd be much better off to just own Home Depot and avoid the losers, no?

An Index Fund will give  equal representation of all the stocks in the sector - Etfs are usually chosen stocks stocks within the sector and carry different weights

Jan 14 19 11:35 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Garry k wrote:

An Index Fund will give  equal representation of all the stocks in the sector - Etfs are usually chosen stocks stocks within the sector and carry different weights

In any basket of stocks, some will go up, some will stay put and some will go down.
Not quite sure what "equal representation" means?
Same number of shares? Same total monetary value (constantly shifting!!!)

With an ETF the different weights may be due to one stock running up and another running down. Why would you want to own any of the one going down?

Jan 14 19 12:00 pm Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

So it Looks like the Market has recovered for now

That was a scarey and expensive drop for many

Hundreds of Millions of Dollars were Lost on the FAANG Stocks alone

Dow and Nasdaq recovering

And Now Cramer is saying that the Cloud Kings are the New FAANG  ( i think that emerging tech sector is worth looking into )

GE up by 50 per cent

And Gold breeching $1300 US and staying steady

Interesting Times

Feb 05 19 03:08 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Garry k wrote:
So it Looks like the Market has recovered for now

That was a scarey and expensive drop for many

Hundreds of Millions of Dollars were Lost on the FAANG Stocks alone

Dow and Nasdaq recovering

And Now Cramer is saying that the Cloud Kings are the New FAANG  ( i think that emerging tech sector is worth looking into )

GE up by 50 per cent

And Gold breeching $1300 US and staying steady

Interesting Times

Money is lost when you sell low, many kept their FAANG stocks and will continue to do so.

WPM is up 30+ percent since I bought it a few weeks ago.
My worst stock currently is CGC, down around 5% and recovering.

Watching BABA go up, wishing I had kept. Bought low, sold slightly less low, still mistrustful of US/China trade relations due to pending "negotiations" which will be critical one way or the other.

Can't be everywhere!!!

Bought some MSFT, BAC, and DELL.
We are not out of the woods yet!!!!

Feb 05 19 08:31 am Link

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What Fun Productions

Posts: 20868

Phoenix, Arizona, US

What are your favorite web pages for investing information and current events in the market?

Mar 01 19 07:46 pm Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Well that was a Fun Rally

but my guess now is that we are headed South Again

Mar 08 19 01:11 pm Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

What Fun Productions wrote:
What are your favorite web pages for investing information and current events in the market?

I have a friend who subscribes to IBD and gives me their recommendations

( only a few of which i have followed )

I have a look at Tradingview daily - and use that as a springboard to closer examine US Stocks

And as a Canadian keep a close eye on all news related to the Gold Mining , ,Oil and Pot Stocks

Oh and Cramer is always entertaining

Mar 08 19 01:26 pm Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Garry k wrote:
Well that was a Fun Rally

but my guess now is that we are headed South Again

Depends on where you put your money.

Since purchase a couple of months ago
CDE up 10%+
WPM up 36%+
So precious metals are doing pretty well. "Safe haven" during uncertainty.
PANW up 15%+
Cyber security will be needed for years to come.
DELL up 15%+
Tech is not dead, it just smells funny. This too shall pass. Tech cannot die in our world without humans returning to caves and eating sticks and dirt.

Mar 09 19 10:04 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Keeping an eye on Boeing - BA.
I owned it in the past and did very well with it. Then I took my profits, should have held it. So it goes.

The stock is going down due to two tragic accidents involving their new 737 offerings with more seating.
China has "frozen" all flights with that model until further notice.
My heart goes out to the families of the deceased.
Still, life goes on.

Short term it is a disaster. Long term it is an opportunity.

Mar 11 19 09:43 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Shadow Dancer wrote:
Keeping an eye on Boeing - BA.
I owned it in the past and did very well with it. Then I took my profits, should have held it. So it goes.

The stock is going down due to two tragic accidents involving their new 737 offerings with more seating.
China has "frozen" all flights with that model until further notice.
My heart goes out to the families of the deceased.
Still, life goes on.

Short term it is a disaster. Long term it is an opportunity.

Edit: Might have missed it, buyers have scooped up share, sending it upwards.

Mar 11 19 10:23 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

BA still in free-fall, other countries have grounded the 737 MAX planes.

This will pass but I don't think it's bottomed yet.

Mar 12 19 09:52 am Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Shadow Dancer wrote:
Keeping an eye on Boeing - BA.
I owned it in the past and did very well with it. Then I took my profits, should have held it. So it goes.

The stock is going down due to two tragic accidents involving their new 737 offerings with more seating.
China has "frozen" all flights with that model until further notice.
My heart goes out to the families of the deceased.
Still, life goes on.

Short term it is a disaster. Long term it is an opportunity.

As I said earlier - I would never invest in a Defense Stock ( although I realize that is only a part of Boeings Business )

Have to say that I am now really uncertain which way the marked is headed . And I feel as that the next bit of bad news ( ie interest rates , jobs etc ) could send the market tumbling . However some good news ( ie trade resolution with China ) could send the market soaring - but for how long ?
Currently I am only holding

MSFT
INTC ( Intel )
Nugt ( Gold ETF )
and PDL ( a Palladium Stock that I am in and out of becuase i believe that there is a chance it is being manipulated / suppressed )

Mar 12 19 01:46 pm Link

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64318

Posts: 1638

San Anselmo, California, US

What a wild ride this market has been.   It seems to change direction every 20 minutes especially the Oils & farm equipment.stocks
.  Nimble trading has made some money.But political & budget problems cloud the financial basics.The fed statements don't help much.except they do show real caution. I like the prospect of  C-V2X electronics being installed in every automobile world wide within a few years but  current earnings  could cause negative price moves. in the companies involved/ short term..

Mar 12 19 02:49 pm Link

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64318

Posts: 1638

San Anselmo, California, US

What a wild ride this market has been.   It seems to change direction every 20 minutes especially the Oils & farm equipment.stocks
.  Nimble trading has made some money.But political & budget problems cloud the financial basics.The fed statements don't help much.except they do show real caution. I like the prospect of  C-V2X electronics being installed in every automobile world wideS within a few years but  current earnings  could cause negative price moves. in the companies involved/ short term..

SORRY  double post !!

Mar 12 19 02:50 pm Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Still watching Boeing - BA but it could be a LONG time before they are out of the woods.

Possibility of lawsuits by airlines that cannot deploy their 737 Max and have to reschedule or lose business.

China may not accept these planes, negotiations continue on tariffs, etc. China is trying to get their own aircraft manufacturing off the ground as well.

So it is way to early to buy in, there could be more downside for years to come.

On to the next!!!!

Mar 19 19 11:17 am Link

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64318

Posts: 1638

San Anselmo, California, US

Bond market trend indicators are warning  of approaching  recession ...........signs same thing as 2007 signals....no wonder   DOW down over 400/.   Mueller report waiting/ apprehension  has not helped either.
BA still being hit with bad news  down over 10 today.

Mar 22 19 03:04 pm Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

ZMPHOT   wrote:
Bond market trend indicators are warning  of approaching  recession ...........signs same thing as 2007 signals....no wonder   DOW down over 400/.   Mueller report waiting/ apprehension  has not helped either.
BA still being hit with bad news  down over 10 today.

Friday was not a good day for me - retreating back to a defensive position

Mar 23 19 12:22 pm Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

WPM up 54% since purchase a few months ago.

Other stocks doing pretty OK, down a bit this am.

Things are pretty nuts out there right now!!!

Mar 25 19 10:17 am Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

IPO frenzy?

Seems logical. May sell a few things down and wait for the lows to buy back in. Will see in the am.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/27/cramer- … eason.html

Mar 27 19 08:50 pm Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

I am mostly out of the market atgain

anticipating another correction

Mar 27 19 09:15 pm Link

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Shadow Dancer

Posts: 9777

Bellingham, Washington, US

Garry k wrote:
I am mostly out of the market atgain

anticipating another correction

Not so sure about a correction but there is plenty of churn right now and that can sideswipe solid stocks.
Certainly risk is high.

Guys like you and I don't really have much sway, it's the big money players and most of them are using computerized buying and selling. Stuff is getting whipsawed around, starts to go down and it plummets, hits buy points and shoots up again.
Planning on a bit of remodeling and renting a room this year, vacancy rates here are at 1% and it would be a smart way to re-allocate investment. Prefer living alone and having the space but I will adapt.

It appears trade wars are not so "easy to win" after all. The Boeing fiasco may or may not have had anything to do with China's recent negotiations with Airbus for 300 planes but it certainly is not good news in these parts. I also suspect Brazilian farmers will be planting lots of soybeans now that they've made connections with a major purchaser/consumer. Years to come may be tough for US farmers.

So you could be correct. At least the Fed eased up for now.

Mar 27 19 10:22 pm Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

I just hope to catch the right wave once in a while

Mar 28 19 01:05 pm Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Oh Oh - Looks like things are starting to fall apart again

SDOW
NUGT
Kirkland Lake

May 13 19 09:48 am Link

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Tony From Syracuse

Posts: 2503

Syracuse, New York, US

I am loving whats been going on. I lost 4000 a few months ago but I made that back and more since. I never panic and get out. I just ride it out.

May 13 19 08:06 pm Link

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Garry k

Posts: 30129

Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Tony From Syracuse wrote:
I am loving whats been going on. I lost 4000 a few months ago but I made that back and more since. I never panic and get out. I just ride it out.

In the long run that has been the best strategy

( with the right investments of course )

May 13 19 08:35 pm Link