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Pandemic Warnings
Outbreak map: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar … 7b48e9ecf6 Mar 04 20 07:46 am Link Some good news on the funding side... Apparently Congress got most of what it wanted and there's now an agreement for an emergency $8.3 Billion fund to fight this. It's now expected to rapidly pass through all stages and be signed into law very, very quickly. Mar 04 20 11:57 am Link Take 2/3 of a cup of 99% isopropyl alcohol or ethanol and mix it with 1/3 of a cup of aloe vera gel. Mix them together. Dump the resulting goo into a dispenser of one sort or another. https://www.thoughtco.com/make-your-own … zer-606145 Make your own hand sanitizer Mar 04 20 12:15 pm Link Baanthai wrote: That is quite the childish response, thank you. Refusing to clarify your statements accomplishes nothing positive. Baanthai wrote: That is true as far as epidemiology is concerned. It isn't true as far as math is concerned regarding the rates. The rates are the rates. x% is x%. Comparing different diseases in different times does nothing to change the fact that x% [regarding today's disease's rate of whatever] = x% [regarding today's disease's rate of whatever]. I don't care what value is used for x. Mar 04 20 01:17 pm Link Tony From Syracuse wrote: Mar 04 20 01:28 pm Link  Moderator Note!Let's try to keep cool heads here, and avoid insults and avoid turning this into "you vs. me" - "us vs. them" ...etc... I know it's impossible to keep "politics" out of this discussion entirely, but please do keep it to a minimum. Mar 04 20 02:06 pm Link I only mention this as a few people are still talking about 2% fatality rates (including some public sources based on some pretty old figures). It's been running in the 3.4% to 3.5% range for a while now. The WHO numbers are posted online daily with the latest numbers that anyone can check (currently 3,198 fatalities / 93,090 cases). Mar 04 20 02:48 pm Link LightDreams wrote: Every day we get more information. The World Health Organization (WHO) says it "believes" the virus is LESS contagious than the typical seasonal flu--- THAT IS GREAT NEWS IF TRUE! Mar 04 20 03:13 pm Link It is maddening to get contradictory news while you are trying to figure out a reasonable response to this whole thing. Hopefully reliable sources of information re: Covid-19 US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) dedicated Covid-19 page https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/index.html The World Health Organization (WHO) https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease … virus-2019 Los Angeles County Dept. of Public Health http://publichealth.lacounty.gov/media/Coronavirus/ As of the latest news I have heard--- they estimate ~80% of the people infected will have mild to moderate symptoms-- NOT requiring medical treatment- just home care and rest. For the 20% who get "sicker" and require medical intervention they are racing to develop effective supportive therapy. At this time they are still working on the most effective anti-viral combinations, but they expect progress to be relatively rapid, with effectiveness growing with each bit of learned experience treating patients. Longer term: Preventative vaccines are also intensely being worked on, but it is important to understand that process---- they develop a "candidate" vaccine---- then it MUST go thru several phases of human clinical trials -first to prove it works, and second and very important, to prove it has no long term negative health impacts. Those testing phases -even streamlined- will take at least 12 months and more likely 18 months before a vaccine can be released to the public. Mar 04 20 03:14 pm Link Good stuff rfordphotos... Absolutely, don't panic but be aware and take common sense precautions. What they are suggesting are generally the same precautions to avoid catching, or passing on, the regular flu except it's just more important now. And, as the Province of BC suggested, having a reasonable (not massive) amount of non-perishable food (and prescription medications, if needed) on hand, always makes sense if you're unable to leave your home for any period of time. Like earthquake or superstorm preparedness kits, you hope they're never needed, but may prove useful. Hopefully there will be very few that decide to just completely ignore the advice from the experts. I hate to use this term, but It's a bit of a numbers game. The more people that take just some basic simple precautions, the better off everyone will be. And the less of an issue it becomes. Mar 04 20 03:38 pm Link Just a few things for perspective. The Spanish Flu was terrifying because it was especially lethal among the 20-40 age group and had something like a 10% mortality rate, often in a matter of hours. Victims also suffered from bleeding at the eyes and other orifices and often so coughed so hard that they literally blew balls of air through the lung lining and into the body. Victims turned blue from lack of oxygen as mucus suffocated them. There were actually three mutations of this pandemic and it was the second and third wave that were most lethal. That should terrify every sane person. The "standard issue flu" has a lethality of about .1% and is an annoying thing unless you are in the categories that are more likely to get hit hard by the respiratory infection part. COVID19 is about 20x more lethal than the flu but that lethality is skewed toward the very young and very old and immune-compromised folks. For a healthy adult, it's nothing to panic over yet but we all need to do the things in order to keep from spreading it to those who are vulnerable. Interestingly, it looks like it's mutated at least once and there is a more- and less-lethal strain now. The researchers at CDC are going to be trying to figure out where it's headed but the bottom line is that as a highly infectious new disease it has the potential to do something we don't expect. So don't go crazy with worry but also don't be stupidly cocky. Wash your hands. Mar 04 20 05:46 pm Link LightDreams wrote: Apparently 80% of the prescription drugs in the USA are made in China Mar 04 20 06:26 pm Link Last night I was watching a briefing from a doctor about corona virus in the US. These were my take aways: Children infected seem to have only minor symptoms, if any at all. He said a theory about this is that children are generally always fighting off colds and a number of different virus strains that spread continually among the school age population, so their immune systems are more active in attacking incoming threats. Wash your hands. The youngest corona virus caused death in the US was 63 years old. All had pre-existing health issues. Wash your hands. Over 80% of those infected thus far in the US have recovered with minimal or no medical intervention. Wash your hands. Masks may actually help spread the virus because people who are not accustomed to wearing the masks tend to fiddle with the mask and touch their face more often. Wash your hands. Understand the threat of corona virus to a person of your age and overall health. Older and unhealthy individuals should take more precautions to safeguard themselves. Wash your hands. Understand that while your children are not at a great risk of becoming seriously ill, they can spread the virus, possibly undetected. Wash your hands. Mar 04 20 06:34 pm Link ethasleftthebuilding wrote: Yes! Also learn to open doors with your elbows. I've begun carrying a container of sanitary wipes so I can clean my hands if it is not possible to open a door with my elbow and I've touched it with my hands. Mar 04 20 07:33 pm Link LightDreams wrote: KNOWN cases. Mar 05 20 05:16 am Link PHP-Photography wrote: You can also say that the official fatality rate from the regular flu (.15% in the U.S.) is also only based on "known" cases. And the same goes for all previous fatality rates that this number is being compared to. Mar 05 20 10:14 am Link Focuspuller wrote: Until today nobody knows the mortality rate of Covid-19... Mar 05 20 03:31 pm Link A paper by Australian National University is predicting a best case scenario of 15 million dead. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronav … 020-3?op=1 Mar 06 20 09:26 am Link Mar 06 20 12:56 pm Link nwprophoto wrote: This is interesting as there has been a breakout at a regional nursing home and no one understands why, or how. Could this Virus be in medications? LightDreams wrote: Laughable Mar 08 20 02:54 pm Link Governor of WA. was talking about "mandatory measures" this morning. National Institute Of Health today said "brace for quarantines". Mar 08 20 03:02 pm Link Being 77 years old and living in Manhattan I try to remember to avoid public transportation at the rush hours, wear gloves when I have to open public doors, or old on subway metallic parts ( the virus could last up to two hours on such surfaces) Cancelled a trip to France and Japan...And wait and see..... Hoping that all the scientists (sans frontieres) in world communicate their progresses to find a solution ASAP..... Just curious how come this virus is name after a Mexican beer? Their stock price went down..... Mar 08 20 05:01 pm Link Great 8.5 billions!!… Less than the price of an aircraft carrier.... Mar 08 20 05:12 pm Link Just got home from Fred Meyer - part of the Kroger chain. A BIG store with an aisle devoted to toilet paper. GONE, every roll GONE. A sign posted that the limit on packages of toilet paper would now be 5 per buyer. It appears folks have realized that things are so far behind what is actually happening that they are preparing to self-quarantine. Gonna check the stock market and maybe do a quick flip if things look worthy. Mar 08 20 07:32 pm Link IMAGINERIES wrote: Mass transit, quite the conundrum during a pandemic. Mar 09 20 06:54 am Link Shadow Dancer wrote: Seems at least some of the earlier naysayers are reconsidering. Mar 09 20 06:56 am Link nwprophoto wrote: I spoke with a relative in San Diego yesterday. Mar 09 20 07:36 am Link Shadow Dancer wrote: Possibilities go way beyond self quarantine. Mar 09 20 07:44 am Link nwprophoto wrote: These days you would have to be crazy to say "that could never happen". Seems anything is possible. Likely? Who knows..... Mar 09 20 10:59 am Link To remind everyone just how much things have changed in the last couple of weeks... It was just over 2 weeks ago when the narratives (at the time) were claims of "hoax" or of media / political "conspiracies", and that there were only FIFTEEN cases in the U.S. that "in a couple of days" would be "going to be down to be close to zero". Not to mention claims that vaccines were only a couple of months away, etc, etc. How things have changed. In the U.S., the current posted figures for the U.S. are 617 cases with 22 fatalities (111,954 cases worldwide with 3,893 fatalities). Those U.S. figures will presumably continue to be corrected as more and more of the working testing kits are distributed and the testing backlogs clears. In addition to the new cases that are detected. The $8+ Billion fund to fight the virus in the U.S. has now been signed into law. So money shouldn't be an issue in the fight. This morning the NY Fed injected $50 Billion more into the financial system to improve liquidity / try and stem the economic impact. This came halfway through this morning's 2,000 point drop in the Dow, including the emergency temporary halt on all trading. As I write this (a few hours later after trading resumed) the headline is "Dow is on track for it's worst day in 32 years", but it has been jumping all over the place. I would say that I think that a good job has been done on getting out the word to people (about washing their hands, and situations to avoid, and who is most at risk, etc, etc) which, if enough people are paying attention (and it looks like they are) will help to "turn the corner" as things progress. And the "corner" will be "turned" at some point. Hopefully sooner, rather than later. Mar 09 20 11:03 am Link I was thinking what would it be like if a major city in the US was isolated like Wuhan in China. Pick the greater Chicago area since that's where I live. Around 8 million folks. Everyone stays home. No public transportation. Businesses and schools shut down along with O'Hare. The military blocking major highways into the region including Interstates 55, 80, 90, and 94. Chicago has already cancelled a trade show and 2 conventions for March. Hard to image without panic and/or revolts. Mar 09 20 04:29 pm Link Question:Flu cases US 2019 ? https://weather.com/health/cold-flu/new … ses-deaths https://www.cnn.com/2019/12/13/health/f … index.html https://www.cnbc.com/2019/01/11/cdc-about-7-million-have-been-sick-with-the-flu-so-far-this-season.html Quote:The CDC said the flu typically kills 12,000 to 56,000 people in the U.S. in a year. https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc … hs-winter/ Quote:CDC: 80,000 people died of flu last winter(2018) in U.S. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/health/cdc … -estimated Quote:As many as 646,000 people may die from influenza each year worldwide, according to the latest estimates from the Centers for Disease Control Mar 09 20 09:49 pm Link Don't forget that COVID-19 has a fatality rate that is 25 to 35 times higher than the regular flu... Mar 09 20 10:52 pm Link Mar 10 20 09:42 am Link Flu vs. Covid-19 Coronavirus as it was explained to me- Flu (seasonal flu, influenza) is a group of respiratory virus that have infected humans for eons. Different strains of the seasonal flu are almost always in circulation, and as a result, we, (humans) have a certain degree of immunity already built up. Because the virus has been around so long, it has built antibodies in everyone infected, every year. This is a form of herd immunity. This immunity "softens" the individual impact of the virus. Every season, literally millions (probably billions) are infected with seasonal flu. Of those people, typically each "flu season" somewhere around 0.1% get sick enough to die. There is no "cure" for the seasonal flu, no 100% sure thing preventative drug. Doesnt exist. Covid-19 (Coronavirus, novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2) is also a respiratory virus. However- it is brand new to humans. Until ~December of last year, it had never been seen before. As a result, we, (humans) have ZERO immunity. Zero defense against the virus. No herd immunity. No preventative vaccines. They have no information on how the virus behaves long term. They have no idea if it will fade as the seasonal flu does when summer comes. They dont know the actual mortality rate. They believe it is going to prove to be at least 5 times as deadly as the seasonal flu, with some estimates up to 25-40 times as deadly. Only time will give us this answer. Not the end of the world. Not something to ignore. I am becoming convinced that, as bad as the disease is, the reaction to it globally, (socially, economically) may be worse. Mar 10 20 12:38 pm Link rfordphotos wrote: As you mention, flu virus has mutated but a certain level of immunity in humans has been manifested over time. Mar 10 20 12:51 pm Link When I first replied on Feb 29, there were 5 deaths in WA, and in the nation due to coronavirus. Ten days later there have been 24 deaths in WA, but 19 of those are from the same nursing home. For the country, it's gone from 5 to 26 deaths. Meanwhile, Italy has had 630 deaths. Last time I said "Trump was correct". I was attacked be sarcastic people. The moderator has spoken on that and said that wasn't OK. I haven't attacked anyone. Let's remember that the CDC is organized under the Department of Health and Human Services, which is a cabinet-level agency, and reports to the president. No matter how much some of you don't want to believe it, Trump is a manager extraordinaire, and he reportedly uses his cabinet like a manager should. Folks try hard to prove that there is some kind of conflict between the CDC and the president, and the president DID fire some people there, but he has significantly increased the H&HS budget in 2019, whereas he cut most agencies last year. Now quit the sarcastic ad hominem attacks! I still think Trump was correct and in agreement with the Secretary of H&HS, and he still is today. Mar 10 20 03:32 pm Link Shadow Dancer wrote: This captured my attention. I'm not criticizing. I think this is a correct statement. Mar 10 20 03:48 pm Link Maybe this potential disaster may convince all countries to collaborate against a common threat...…. Regardless of political interests, religions, etc.... Mar 10 20 05:19 pm Link Fist Full of Ish wrote: I searched "Are viruses alive" and it appears to be complicated since they replicate using hijacked resources. Yet, they do replicate. So they may not be alive but they aren't exactly "dead" either. If they were dead then they would not replicate. Mar 10 20 05:31 pm Link |
